• Gold price bounces back toward record highs in Monday’s Asian session. 
• Precious metal reverses profit-taking retreat amid a renewed US Dollar selling.
• Rising Fed rate cut expectations aid Gold’s rebound. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) has picked up fresh bids, resuming its uptrend in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal shrugs off its profit-taking pullback and rebounds to a fresh five-month high near $3,470 on increased dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

The US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates this month.

Markets weigh in fresh US trade uncertainty after a US court on Friday ruled US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs as largely illegal.

A slew of US economic data last week, including US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Initial Jobless Claims reports, underpinned the US Dollar (USD) and weighed on the USD-denominated commodity price. The US GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2, compared to the initial estimate of 3.0%, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Thursday. This figure came in better than the estimation of 3.1%.

Nonetheless, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement, stayed higher than the central bank’s target in July, but it didn’t dash traders’ hopes for a rate cut. The expectation of Fed rate cuts continues to support the yellow metal, as lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold. 

Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 85% odds before the US PCE data, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “We have expectations of a Fed rate cut, or potentially two, throughout this year, (which is) generally supportive for commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Rebounds Toward $3.20 as Storage Tightens and Production Surges

Natural Gas Futures Rally After August Selloff

Front-month NG=F futures closed August with a sharp rebound, settling at $2.997 per MMBtu after climbing 1.80% on Friday. Despite the late-month rally, the commodity still logged a 5.73% monthly decline, weighed by cooler weather projections and record output levels. Prices had slumped to a 9.5-month low earlier in the week before short covering and bullish storage data ignited a turnaround. With momentum shifting, traders are closely monitoring whether the rebound has legs to clear the next major resistance zone between $3.238 and $3.300.

EIA Storage Data and Inventory Trends

The latest EIA report provided a critical spark for bulls. U.S. inventories rose only +18 bcf for the week ending August 22, well below expectations for a +27 bcf build and far under the five-year average of +38 bcf. Current storage sits 3.5% below last year’s levels, though still 5% above the five-year seasonal norm. This tighter-than-expected build signaled stronger demand absorption and underpinned the futures rally. In Europe, gas storage levels are 77% full, below the seasonal average of 84%, tightening global balances further ahead of peak heating demand.

Production Strength Remains a Headwind

While storage draws support prices, U.S. output continues to flood the market. Dry gas production hit 107.4 bcf/day, a 3.8% year-over-year increase, keeping supply near record highs. LNG feedgas flows softened slightly to 15.6 bcf/day, down 1.9% week-over-week, while lower-48 demand slid 11.9% year-over-year to 71.7 bcf/day. Baker Hughes data shows 122 active gas rigs, just below a two-year high, highlighting the persistent oversupply pressure despite recent declines. The EIA lifted its production outlook for 2025 to 106.44 bcf/day, with a further rise projected in 2026 to 106.09 bcf/day.

Technical Outlook: $3.15–$3.19 Zone in Focus

The market’s technical structure has improved. Natural gas futures reclaimed the 20-Day Moving Average at $2.89 and the AVWAP level near $2.96, turning prior resistance into support. A breakout from a falling wedge pattern added bullish momentum, and the weekly chart is on track to confirm a bullish engulfing candle. The channel midpoint at $2.92 held on recent pullbacks, reinforcing trend strength. Near term, the $3.15–$3.19 range is the immediate target, aligning with both wedge breakout projections and the 50-Day Moving Average at $3.18. A decisive close above $3.238 would mark a structural breakout, opening upside toward $3.40 and beyond.

Seasonal Weather Risks and Demand Dynamics

Weather remains the key swing factor. Forecasts project early-autumn coolness across the eastern U.S., reducing late-summer air-conditioning demand, while the West braces for hotter-than-normal conditions. The NOAA continues to flag 80% probability of above-average heatwaves in the Carolinas and Virginia, implying stronger regional power burn. In July, U.S. power sector demand surged to 49.1 bcfd, setting records in Texas and Louisiana. Meanwhile, Edison Electric Institute data shows U.S. electricity output rose 7.7% y/y in the week ending August 23 and 3.1% y/y over the trailing 52 weeks, underscoring the growing linkage between power demand and gas consumption.

Global LNG Expansion Tightens Balances

Beyond near-term volatility, the long-term structure remains bullish. IEA forecasts project global gas demand rising 2% annually through 2050, with LNG as the primary growth driver. U.S. exports are expected to expand to 16 bcf/day by 2026, led by major projects like Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3, which will pull more gas from domestic balances. European LNG imports are forecast to climb 25% in 2025, offsetting Russian pipeline cuts. This structural demand expansion positions NG=F for a sustained upward repricing, especially if U.S. production growth slows from geological or regulatory constraints.

Volatility Compression and Market Tone

Price volatility has eased, with Henry Hub historical volatility falling from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% by mid-2025, reflecting normalized seasonal patterns and balanced inventories. Yet the decline in volatility masks the risk of sharp weather-driven spikes. The market remains in a fragile balance, where minor shifts in LNG flows, storage builds, or weather-driven demand could quickly trigger double-digit price swings. Investors are navigating a dual narrative: near-term caution tied to high production and cooler forecasts, versus long-term optimism built on LNG, industrial adoption, and power sector demand.

Final Outlook on NG=F

With NG=F at $2.997, the immediate technical battle is clear. Support holds at $2.92, while resistance tightens near $3.19–$3.238. A breakout opens upside toward $3.40 and $3.65, while a failure exposes downside risk back to $2.74. Fundamentally, tightening storage builds and LNG expansion argue for sustained bullishness into 2026, but record U.S. output remains the dominant headwind. Based on current conditions, natural gas leans cautiously bullish with a Buy bias, contingent on holding above $2.92 and breaking through the $3.238 ceiling.

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• Silver advances to its strongest level since September 2011.
• Markets are pricing about an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, despite firmer core PCE inflation.
• Technical outlook points to a potential break above $40.00, with resistance at $41.48 and $43.40, while support holds at $39.00 and the 100-period EMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its rally for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, with spot prices climbing to fresh 14-year highs. The metal trades around $39.85 at the time of writing, surpassing the July 23 peak of $39.53, as sustained weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and firm safe-haven demand keep buyers firmly in control.

The rally comes as investors continue to bet on an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September monetary policy meeting, even after mixed US inflation data. July’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose to 2.9%YoY, its highest in five months, while headline PCE held steady at 2.6%. Although the firmer core reading complicates the policy debate, markets are increasingly focused on the labor market, where signs of cooling hiring momentum and softer wage growth suggest a bigger risk to the economy than lingering inflation pressures.

Swaps are still pricing about an 87% chance of a September cut, keeping the recent dovish tilt in focus. Alongside that, broader factors, including a weaker US Dollar, geopolitical frictions, and steady industrial demand from the solar and green energy sectors, continue to support XAG/USD’s bullish momentum.

Adding to the backdrop, concerns over the Fed’s independence have deepened after US President Donald Trump moved to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook has responded with a lawsuit seeking an injunction to block the decision, marking an unprecedented legal challenge to the central bank’s autonomy. The episode has unsettled confidence in U.S. monetary policy and further pressured the Dollar, reinforcing safe-haven flows into silver. The move has added pressure to an already broadly weak US Dollar and reinforced safe-haven flows into Silver.

From a technical perspective, Silver’s breakout above $39.50 has shifted the near-term bias firmly higher, with the metal now approaching the $40.00 psychological barrier. The 4-hour chart shows XAG/USD comfortably above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $38.35, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 74 in overbought territory, suggesting strong but stretched momentum. A sustained push through this level would open the door toward the $41.48 high from September 12, 2011, with the next upside target at $43.40, the peak from September 5, 2011. On the downside, immediate support lies at $39.00, followed by the 100-period EMA near $38.35, which should act as a key pivot zone for bulls.

Five-Week High Breakout

Earlier in the week crude oil triggered a bull breakout to a five-week high of $71.33. It is on track to end the week in a relatively bullish position, in the upper third of the week’s trading range. If it can close the week above $69.98, the bullish breakout on the weekly timeframe will be confirmed. That would potentially increase the possibility of a continuation to the upside, at least to the next target zone mentioned above.

If the advance can continue, as the weekly chart supports, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at $73.31 is the next upside target. A downtrend line crosses through that Fibonacci level by August 11. After that a downtrend line will represent potential dynamic resistance prior to the 61.8% level.

Support at 200-Day Moving Average

Given that there have been signs of short-term resistance over the past couple of days, a pullback might follow. Potential support around the 200-Day MA is a key area to watch for a bounce and bullish reversal. However, if selling persists there is a consolidation zone of potential support down to the recent low at $65.63. That should slow down bearish momentum if it persists. This week’s low of $65.90 is also a potential support area of note, as well as last week’s high of $67.68.

Upside Potential Remains

It is important to keep in mind that crude oil remains in a five-day consolidation zone until it confirms the weekly breakout. A rise from the bottom of a large descending channel at the April swing low pointed to a potential test of resistance at the top of the channel. That happened in June. Now that crude is again rising from key support levels, the top of the channel becomes a potential target. Keep this in mind if crude oil gets closer to the top channel line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold (XAU/USD) Climbs Toward $3,500 as Fed Cut Bets, Central Bank Buying, and Economic Strains Collide

XAU/USD Pushes to Record Highs Above $3,440

Gold prices have staged one of the most decisive rallies of 2025, with XAU/USD trading between $3,375 and $3,450 during the final week of August before briefly touching $3,511.50 in futures. Spot gold closed at $3,443.50, up 2% weekly and 4.7% for the month, cementing a breakout from the summer consolidation. The market’s momentum was driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and aggressive flows from both institutional investors and central banks.

Federal Reserve Pressure and the PCE Catalyst

The rally was anchored by the U.S. PCE inflation index, which rose 2.9% YoY in July, in line with forecasts but still well above the Fed’s 2% target. While inflation remains sticky, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech underscored a shift toward prioritizing economic slowdown and labor market weakness. Markets are now pricing an almost 100% probability of a 25bps rate cut on September 17, with Powell signaling that restrictive policy risks outweigh inflation concerns. A GDP revision showing +3.3% QoQ growth in Q2 further emboldened traders betting the Fed will move sooner rather than later. The prospect of lower real rates has historically underpinned gold’s role as a non-yielding store of value, and the latest rally is consistent with that playbook.

Central Banks Accelerating Gold Accumulation

Behind the retail and ETF flows lies a deeper structural shift. Central banks have been net buyers at historic levels, increasing their bullion share of reserves to nearly 20%, up sharply from 10% in the late 1990s. Notably, the Saudi Central Bank recently revealed large allocations not only to gold but also to silver-linked ETFs, a rare diversification that highlights sovereign appetite for hard assets. This accumulation is reshaping the demand base for gold, providing steady support even as speculative flows ebb and flow. Analysts highlight that central bank activity is a direct contradiction of their official rhetoric of monetary stability, implying genuine concern over dollar volatility and geopolitical fragility.

Labor Market Cooling and Recession Signals

Gold’s strength also reflects investor anxiety around the U.S. labor market. Surveys show that 20% of Americans fear job loss, a level rarely seen outside recessions. Real consumer spending expanded just 1% annualized in H1 2025, while auto and housing purchase intentions slumped to levels reminiscent of the 2007 pre-recessionary environment. Case-Shiller home price data revealed four straight months of declines, and pending home sales dropped to levels below the 2008 Great Recession trough. This deflationary signal in housing – the single largest household asset – is pushing investors toward gold as a hedge against both financial instability and household wealth erosion.

Technical Strength as Gold Clears Key Resistance

From a technical perspective, gold’s breakout above $3,350 was a critical event. For months, XAU/USD was locked in a $34 range between $3,314 and $3,348, capped by the 50-day moving average. The breach of this ceiling has unleashed new buying momentum, targeting $3,450–$3,500. December futures closing above $3,500 would confirm continuation, with the next resistance zones at $3,534 (record spot) and $3,600 psychological level. Support levels sit at $3,400 and $3,350, with consolidation expected if macro catalysts remain mixed. Dollar weakness – down 8% YTD – is adding fuel, making gold more attractive to international buyers.

Silver Riding Gold’s Momentum but Still Lagging

While gold dominates headlines, silver (XAG/USD) has been quietly staging its own breakout, closing at $39.72, its highest level since 2011 and within reach of the $40 psychological mark. The gold-to-silver ratio remains at 86, above its historical 50–60 average, leaving room for silver to catch up. Institutional inflows are rising, with sovereign wealth funds like Saudi Arabia allocating to iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL). This marks a significant shift in market structure, as silver has long been dominated by retail demand. Its industrial applications in photovoltaics and electronics add another layer of support, aligning with global green energy expansion.

Trade Tensions, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Risk Driving Safe-Haven Demand

Global trade frictions are also shaping flows into gold. U.S. tariffs, including Trump’s broad-based 10% duties, are lifting import costs and dampening global trade. Canada’s economy contracted 1.6% in Q2, its sharpest drop since the pandemic, underscoring ripple effects. Meanwhile, a U.S. appeals court ruling most Trump tariffs illegal raises questions about policy continuity. This political uncertainty, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, enhances gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against fractured global trade.

ETF Flows Show Volatility but Net Support for Gold

ETF data reveals turbulence in late August. Gold ETFs like GLDM recorded $449M outflows in one week, but reversed into inflows by month’s end, mirroring Bitcoin ETFs, which also recovered after heavy liquidations. This simultaneous rebound in both assets suggests investors are not abandoning hard assets but reallocating tactically. Overall, gold ETF assets under management remain at record highs, aligning with broader institutional demand.

Mining Equities and the Bond-Bullion Barbell Strategy

Gold mining equities continue to provide leveraged exposure to bullion. With gold above $3,400, margins for miners expand significantly, pushing earnings well beyond baseline metal gains. Analysts highlight the bond-bullion barbell strategy, which delivered 18.5% YTD returns, outperforming the S&P 500 by 700 basis points. Mining equities, combined with physical gold and ETFs, are seen as a diversified approach for investors seeking both yield and exposure.

Verdict: XAU/USD Rating – BUY (Bullish Bias, Target $3,500–$3,600)

Gold (XAU/USD) near $3,443 is supported by dovish Fed expectations, central bank accumulation, weakening labor and housing markets, and dollar softness. Technicals confirm bullish breakout momentum, with $3,500 in clear sight. The macro environment favors continued accumulation, with downside risk limited to the $3,350–$3,400 zone. Unlike past cycles where retail demand dominated, today’s rally is anchored by sovereign buying and institutional flows, giving it greater structural resilience. At current levels, gold is firmly a BUY, with year-end upside potential toward $3,600 if September’s jobs data and Fed cuts align.

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Key Resistance Levels Ahead

Despite the breakout, confirmation of further strength remains essential. The next key resistance is the all-time high at $3,500. Sustained trade above June’s high of $3,451 would improve the odds of new record highs. A monthly high close provides encouraging evidence that bulls are in control, but maintaining momentum through these critical resistance levels will be important.

Measured Move Targets

From a technical perspective, the triangle projects potential upside targets near $3,820 and $4,053. The first target is based on direct price measurement, while the second is percentage-based. In the nearer term, an initial resistance zone emerges between $3,578 and $3,595, defined by the confluence of two indicators. This price area could serve as the next milestone for buyers if a new high in gold is confirmed.

Support from Long-Term Averages

Gold’s latest upswing also benefited from strong trend support. The recent downswing found buyers at the 20-Week moving average, and the prior swing low also found support at that line. Each rebound from this average confirms solid underlying demand and reinforces the integrity of the broader bull trend. These repeated reactions show that investors continue to defend long-term support levels.

Demand Must Confirm Breakout

While technical projections point to higher levels, targets are the least reliable element of analysis and require confirmation through continued strength. Also, breakouts, even when clear, can fail if demand slows. Risk management remains critical for traders navigating the move. Still, the clarity of the triangle, combined with Friday’s breakout, suggests that strong momentum should follow. Sustained strength above $3,451 would firmly establish gold’s path toward new record highs.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.