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Silver remains steady near $54.00 after rejection at $54.40 area.
XAG/USD metal is on track for a nearly 8% rally this week.
Investors’ hopes of Fed monetary policy easing are supporting speculative demand for precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) has failed to break November’s peak, at $54.40 area on Friday, weighed by a somewhat firmer US Dollar. The precious metal, however, remains close to $54.00, trading at $53,85 at the time of writing, after rallying nearly 8% this week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of peers, is picking up from weekly lows amid a frail rebound in US Treasury yields on Friday’s thinned Thanksgiving trading.
Nevertheless, the market is pricing a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and a few more next year, which is likely to keep speculative demand for the Greenback subdued and fuel the precious metal’s rally.
Technical Analysis: The next upside targets are $54.40 and $54.85
XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart
The technical picture remains positive. The rejection at $54.40 earlier on Friday has been contained above $53.50. Oscillators are at positive levels. The 4-Hour RSI is right below oversold territory while the MACD is turning flat at high levels, suggesting the possibility of some consolidation.
On the downside, the intra-day low at the mentioned $53.50 level is the prime support area ahead of Thursday’s low at the $52.70 area and the November 25 low, near $50.70.
Bulls remain focused on the November 13 highs, at the $54.40 area, which is the last hurdle ahead of the multi-year high of $54.85 reached in mid-October. Further up, the 261% Fibonacci extension of the November 21-25 rally, a common exhaustion level, is at the $56.60 area.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The British pound has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday, but it does look like it’s trying to find a little bit of support at the 1.32 level. It is worth noting that we stalled right at the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicator on Thursday. So, a lot is going on here. We’ll see if the downward trajectory continues. Right now, I’m still a bit bearish, although we may find ourselves trying to form some type of range in the short term.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
The euro has shown itself to be slightly negative. After initially rallying against the British pound during Friday’s trading session, we are sitting right at the 50-day EMA and the 0.8750 level, an area that, of course, is a massive previously resistant area. And now you would think there should be a certain amount of market memory here. If we can bounce from here, then we could go back to the 0.8850 level, but without the weight, see whether or not that actually happens. If we fall, then I’ll be paying attention to the 0.87 level, which is the next little cluster of support.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.96 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $59.02. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) ,on the contrary, is up, advancing from the $62.89 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $63.04.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) staged an impressive recovery against the US Dollar (USD), as GBP/USD clinched fresh monthly highs above the 1.3250 psychological level.
Pound Sterling capitalized on the UK Budget relief
Amidst increased odds of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), GBP/USD found its feet, thanks to the UK Autumn Budget and growing expectations surrounding a US Federal Reserve (Fed) December rate reduction.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed an 85% chance of the Fed lowering rates next month against a 40% probability seen a week ago. Dovish commentary from Fed officials and mixed US data ramped up odds for such a move by the central bank.
New York Fed President John Williams said on November 21 that “US interest rates could fall without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market,” per Reuters.
Earlier in the week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also favored a rate cut before the end of the year and expressed concerns about a “still fragile” labor market.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also noted that “the Fed shouldn’t hold off on cutting rates now out of fear it may need to reverse course later.”
Later in the week, the Pound Sterling recovery gained traction due to the UK Budget announcement, which eased pressures surrounding fiscal concerns and bolstered GBP/USD.
Citing analysts, Reuters reported, “fears about slow growth, weak productivity and sticky inflation are not reflective of an attractive investment backdrop.”
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ budget was well received by markets despite the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downward revision of the economic growth for 2025.
However, the pair’s upswing remained restricted because of the details of the Budget, entailing back-loaded tax measures.
Next of note for markets remains the monthly ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, followed by the US ISM Services PMI release.
On Thursday, the weekly Unemployment Claims will be reported ahead of the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, on Friday.
Besides the economic data, speeches from BoE policymakers and updates on the US-Ukraine discussions on the potential peace deal will also be closely followed.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has started to turn higher but remains below the 50- and 100-day SMAs. The 50- and 100-day SMAs extend their decline, while the 200-day SMA rises; price stays below the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs but above the 20-day. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 53 (neutral), signaling modest momentum recovery. Measured from the 1.3675 high to the 1.3011 low, the 38.2% retracement at 1.3264 acts as near-term resistance, with the 50% at 1.3343 above.
Bias remains uneven, with improving short-term momentum yet persistent overhead hurdles. The 20-day SMA currently stands at 1.3142 and offers nearby support, while the 200-day SMA at 1.3313 acts as dynamic resistance; the 50- and 100-day SMAs continue to slope lower. RSI holding above 50 would increase the odds of an upside extension, while a pullback would expose the 20-day SMA as the first line of defense.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
An upside breakout of the consolidation triangle as it is currently configured is initially triggered above the top trendline but more reliable on a rise above the lower swing high at $4,245. That breakout level confirms a triangle breakout as well as generating a higher swing high and continuation of the bull trend begun from the October swing low. A rising ABCD pattern on the chart shows an initial 78.6% harmonic target for the pattern at $4,280, while price symmetry between the two rising measured moves completes at $4,356. This makes those two price levels the first upside targets on a breakout above the high for November at $4,245 (B).
Near-Term Trigger
However, an initial signal for a continuation of the bull trend towards the $4,245 high is on a sustained breakout above Wednesday’s high and the current high of the CD leg of the advance at $4,173. The breakout will need to prove itself once triggered, with a clear pick-up in bullish momentum.
Weekly Bullish Context
The weekly chart shows a bullish view, with a higher weekly high and higher low established following another successful test of support at the 20-day moving average. That is consistent with dynamic support near the longer-view 10-week average. A weekly close above last week’s high of $4,133 will confirm the weekly bull breakout and show buyers in control on that time frame. Subsequently, if gold stays above this week’s low of $4,040, the potential for the long-term bull trend to resume remains the most likely possibility for now.
Outlook
Tighter risk management can be achieved by the 20-day average support indicated at $4,075 currently and rising again after a slightly bearish decline. The more significant potential dynamic support line is at the 50-day average at $4,019. A decisive move above $4,173–$4,245 targets $4,280–$4,356; failure to clear the downtrend line risks a lower swing high and test of $4,075 – $4,040.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The USD/JPY pair lacks any firm intraday directional bias on Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, above the 156.00 mark, through the first half of the European session. Concerns about Japan’s ailing fiscal position, along with the upbeat market mood, offset higher-than-forecast consumer inflation figures from Tokyo. Moreover, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick acts as a tailwind for the currency pair. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities could step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency and the divergent Bank of Japan (BoJ)-US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations cap spot prices.
Government data showed earlier today that the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in November, while a gauge, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, came in at 2.8% YoY. Moreover, the core CPI, excluding both fresh food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8%. The data points to sticky inflation in Japan’s capital city and backs the case for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi signaled on Thursday that the monetary tightening must follow an incremental path, forcing investors to reassess expectations for the central bank’s next policy move.
Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet on Friday approved a draft supplementary budget worth ¥18.303 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2026, stoking concerns about the nation’s fiscal health. The extra budget will be financed by additional bond issuance of at least ¥11.5 trillion. Expectations about the supply of new government debt had pushed longer-dated government bond yields to their highest in more than two decades earlier this month and contributed to the JPY’s relative underperformance. Furthermore, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal fail to assist the JPY to attract any buying.
The USD, on the other hand, looks to build on Thursday’s modest bounce from an over one-week low and further supports the USD/JPY pair. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited in the wake of dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Comments from several Fed officials recently suggested that another interest rate cut in December is a live option. Moreover, reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Fed Chair, and is expected to enact US President Donald Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates, hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.
Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday. Moreover, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets and positioning for an extension of this week’s retracement slide from the 158.00 neighborhood, or the highest level since mid-January.
USD/JPY 1-hour chart
Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is flirting with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance, just below mid-156.00s, which, if cleared decisively, should pave the way for additional gains. The subsequent move up could allow spot prices to reclaim the 157.00 mark and climb further toward the 157.45-157.50 intermediate hurdle before aiming to challenge the multi-month high, just ahead of the 158.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 156.00 round figure could protect the immediate downside. This is followed by the weekly low, around the 155.70-155.65 region, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall to the 155.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of a one-week-old downtrend.
No news for EURJPY pair’s new sideways trading and its fluctuating near 181.15, but its stability above the support level near 179.40 and attempting to form extra support at 180.25 level, these factors support the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, attempting to breach the barrier at 181.75, targeting new positive stations that might begin at 182.30 reaching the main target at 183.05.
Note that stochastic approach from 80 level will increase the chances of achieving extra bullish momentum, to pave the way for achieving the breach and reaching the suggested targets.
The expected trading range for today is between 180.35 and 182.30
Despite the weakness of the GBPJPY pair’s trading, there are positive factors that begin by the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, by the continuation of forming extra support at 205.20 level, these factors confirm the continuation of the positivity in the near and medium period.
Providing positive momentum by stochastic reach towards overbought level makes us prefer attacking the resistance of the bullish channel on 207.70, confirming that breaching it is important to record new gains by its rally towards 208.25 and 208.70.
The expected trading range for today is between 206.25 and 207.70
Platinum price succeeded in providing new positive close above $1605.00 level, to confirm its readiness to resume the bullish trend, fluctuating near $1635.00.
The continuation of providing positive signals by the main indicators will ease the mission of breaching $1645.00 level, to open the way for recording extra gains that might begin at $1695.00 and $1745.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1600.00 and $1695.00
