– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Flat despite Downbeat Market Mood

Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Muted amid Souring Trade

The Pound Sterling was trapped in a narrow range against the US Dollar on Tuesday despite a risk-off market sentiment.

While largely steady versus the Pound (GBP), the US Dollar (USD) managed to gain ground against several other major currencies on Tuesday.

Even in the absence of market-moving releases, the ‘Greenback’ drew support from a prevailing risk-off market mood.

The cautious tone bolstered the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly against its riskier rivals.

At the same time, investors remained hesitant to take aggressive positions on the Dollar ahead of key events later in the week, including the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) showed little conviction, with a quiet UK economic calendar leaving Sterling largely influenced by overall market sentiment.

Amid a downbeat market mood, the currency fell back against a number of safe-haven peers, highlighting its sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite.

Equally, the risk environment allowed GBP to make small gains against more risk-sensitive currencies on Tuesday.

With no new domestic data to guide its movement, Sterling fluctuated against most of its key counterparts.

GBP/USD: UK and US Releases to Drive Movement

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair is expected to respond to key economic releases from both the UK and the US.

In the United States, investors will focus on the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which could weigh on the US Dollar if they signal a dovish stance and reinforce expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the UK is set to publish July’s consumer price index (CPI), with forecasts pointing to a modest rise from 3.6% to 3.7%.

Should the inflation data meet expectations, Sterling may find support, potentially pushing GBP higher against the US Dollar during Wednesday’s European session.

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TAGS: American Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during trading here on Tuesday, but at this juncture, it just looks like a market that continues to see a lot of noise at the 148 yen level. If and when we can finally leave this area, the next target might be 151 yen, as that’s basically where we saw all the massive selling from a couple of weeks ago.

And keep in mind that despite the fact there is a general consensus that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting, the interest rate differential still heavily favors the US dollar. And that’s something that eventually will come back into the picture. The 50-day EMA underneath offering support is worth paying close attention to because if we break down below there, we could find ourselves dropping to 146 yen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has done next to nothing in the early hours here on Tuesday, perhaps waiting for the interest rate decision out of New Zealand, as the two currencies move somewhat lockstep with each other, because there will be a sympathy related move when we get that announcement early in Wednesday trading. So, I think at this point, it makes a certain amount of sense that a pair that’s been admittedly quiet and sideways anyways, isn’t doing much. The 0.6550 level continues to be an area of resistance that I’m willing to fade at the first signs of exhaustion.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady after a recent collapse.

• The US has promised to guarantee Ukraine’s safety in case of a peace deal.

• Traders are pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady after a recent collapse due to dollar strength. The dollar paused its rally as safe-haven demand dropped after the meeting between Trump and Zelensky ended well. Meanwhile, focus is shifting towards the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on Fed rate cuts. 

Trump and Zelenskiy’s meeting went well, with the two leaders seeming to be on the same page. The US has promised to guarantee Ukraine’s safety in case of a peace deal with Russia. Last week, the meeting between Trump and Putin also ended well. The US president noted that Putin was more willing to work towards a peace deal instead of a ceasefire deal. Nevertheless, markets remain uncertain about the future. 

Elsewhere, the Fed will meet during the Jackson Hole Symposium, and traders will watch Powell’s tone. After recent US data, traders are pricing an over 80% chance of a cut in September. Moreover, they expect policymakers to sound more dovish. However, experts have warned that Powell might not give a clear signal on rate cuts. 

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants are not anticipating any high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US. 

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price action signals a new trend

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA after failing to break above the 1.3575 resistance level. The break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, suggesting a surge in bearish momentum. 

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Initially, the price was climbing in a developed bullish trend, with the price keeping above the 30-SMA. However, the price failed to make a higher high when bulls met the 1.3575 resistance level. Instead, it made a lower high and broke below the SMA to make a lower low. This pattern shows the beginning of a downtrend. 

However, bears must keep the price below the SMA and respect it as a resistance. If this happens, the price will likely drop to retest the 1.3401 support level. On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will likely retest the 1.3575 resistance.

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Created on August 19, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral with an upward bias.
• Support Levels Today: 1.1640 – 1.1560 – 1.1490.
• Resistance Levels Today: 1.1720 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1580 support level, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1785 resistance level, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1860.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

The EUR/USD pair is still trading in a limited, cautious, and neutral-to-bullish range. According to reliable trading platforms, the euro’s half-percent gain against the dollar last Friday was a strong reminder that the single currency continues to attract solid buying interest on any dips. As the EUR/USD heads for another climb in August, a move past the 1.1735 resistance, and from there to the psychological peak of 1.1800, is possible this week. Success, however, will depend on whether Ukraine and Russia make progress toward a peace agreement and whether Jerome Powell meets market expectations for a September rate cut.

According to forex trading experts, this week will be dominated by Ukrainian peace talks and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. Given these risks, the chart shows the EUR/USD pair is on the rise again. Our weekly forecast model is positive, as the EUR/USD is holding above the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently at 1.1664 and rising. Above this level, our outlook for the week is positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also above 50, although it appears somewhat stable, which may reflect the consolidation we saw last week.

Overall, this consolidation in the rebound is embodied by the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the July and August declines. However, the move is upward, and we expect a breakout of the 1.1735 resistance level. To continue the upward trend, we need to break the 78.6% level, from which the July 24 high of 1.1788 becomes clear, followed by the psychological high of 1.1800.

Stronger Factors Influencing Currency Prices

Apart from technical analysis, we have some important risks to consider.

The first is the meeting at the beginning of the week between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Markets are already anticipating progress, as volatility indicators have dropped significantly in recent days, which is expected to support the EUR/USD. The surge in oil and gas prices in the summer of 2022, and the negative terms-of-trade shock for the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to fall below parity. Unless the Ukraine-Russia negotiations completely collapse and Trump’s “excessive rapprochement” with Putin reverses, causing oil prices to rise, we believe favorable global conditions can prevent the EUR/USD from trending downwards.

On the economic front, according to the economic calendar, eurozone inflation data is due midweek and is expected to show that inflation is within the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target, although it would take a smaller-than-expected surprise to convince the market that the ECB will make further interest rate cuts going forward.

However, the surprise factor is fading, as all major European countries will have released their domestic data, meaning the eurozone-wide figure will already be expected. The surprise factor is likely to emerge in the August PMI survey, due next Thursday. The July PMI surprised markets with its rise, revealing the economy’s return to growth, boosting euro trading. A repeat performance could help it rise again.

Jackson Hole Symposium to Strongly Influence Dollar Trading

However, the US dollar side is the most important factor for the EUR/USD relationship. All eyes are on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak. He is expected to confirm market expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike given the slowdown in US labor markets. However, he will likely dismiss hopes of a 50-basis point hike given that inflation remains elevated.

As is well known, Jackson Hole has a long history of significance for markets, as the Federal Reserve Chairman has consistently used his speech to signal shifts in monetary policy. At last year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Powell sent a clear signal that it was time to begin cutting interest rates, followed by a larger 50 basis point cut at the FOMC meeting in September.

Last year, Powell said, “The time has come to adjust policy. The direction is clear,” with inflation remaining on a “sustainable path” toward its target.

At this month’s Jackson Hole Symposium, market participants will be listening closely to see if Chair Powell will endorse the pricing for a resumption of rate cuts next month. The risk is that Chair Powell refrains from giving a clear signal on the timing of the next rate cut, giving the Fed more time to continue assessing incoming data before the September FOMC meeting. Obviously, this could help to alleviate the downward pressure on the US dollar in the short term. However, analysts at ING Bank believe the speech will lean toward being cautious on the US dollar.

Trading Advice:

Traders on TradersUp are advised to avoid trading EUR/USD for now until the outcomes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict-resolution meetings are clear, as these have the strongest impact on the euro’s trajectory against other major currencies.

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Copper price didn’t move anything, to keep providing slow sideways trading by its fluctuation near $4.4500, affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, due to the stability of stochastic within the oversold level, to reduce the chances for renewing the suggested bullish attempts.

The stability above the extra support at $4.2600 assists to confirm the price confinement within the bullish track, to keep waiting for gathering the required positive momentum for reaching the positive stations near $4.6200 and $4.7400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.330 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish