Created on August 10, 2025

Gold markets have been bullish again during the course of the week as we broke above the $3500 level. The $3500 level has been like a ceiling in this market for some time and breaking above there obviously will attract a lot of headlines. However, it is probably worth noting that the Friday session is rolling back over so I don’t know that we have the momentum to truly clear this area quite yet. Regardless, this remains a “buy on the dips” type of market. I have no interest in shorting this market although I fully anticipate that it could pull back just a bit.

The NASDAQ 100 rallied during the course of the week, breaking above the 23,250 level again. We have essentially wiped out 80% or so of the losses from the previous week, so it does look like we might be either getting ready to consolidate in an area right around here, or perhaps we are trying to turn around and break above the top of the candlestick from the previous week. I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we see consolidation in the short term, mainly due to the fact that it is August, and the volume suddenly disappears as traders are more worried about vacation. Regardless, the one thing I won’t do is try to short this market.

The Euro rallied during the week, but it is worth noting that we are getting a little bit softer over the last couple of weeks, as we continue to just hang out in the 1.16 level. We are still in the midst of consolidation, so I’m not ready to make some big proclamation here, but I would say that if we broke down below the bottom of the candlestick from the previous week, meaning the 1.14 level, that would be very ugly for the euro. On the other hand, if we can break above the 1.18 level, then perhaps we can go much higher.

Silver has been very bullish during the course of the week as we have cleared the $37.50 level again. The $37.50 has been important multiple times on the daily chart and has offered both support and resistance. Because of this, I’m watching that very closely as the market will continue to be very noisy, but I think given enough time we will probably revisit the $40 level. If we can break above the $40 level, then it’s likely that silver will continue to go much higher were to turn around and break down below the $36.50 level, then silver may have some correction ahead.

The British pound has rallied pretty significantly during the trading week as the 1.3250 level has offered a bit of a floor. Ultimately, the market looks as if it will try to get to the 1.3550 level, an area that’s been resistant. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 1.3250 level, then it’s likely that the British pound could drop down to the 50 Week EMA. After that, we could be looking at a move down to the 1.2850 level where the 200 Week EMA currently resides.

The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Mexican peso during the week, but the 19 MXN level has offered a bit of a ceiling. As we close the week, it looks like we are sitting just above the 18.50 MXN level, which opens up the move down to the 17.50 MXN level. Ultimately, this is a pair that could go as low as 16.50 MXN, but it will take some time to get down there. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential continues to favor the Mexican peso, and I think in the environment where the Mexicans were given 90 more days as an extension to tariffs, it will start to feel a bit better about the Mexican economy overall.

The Australian dollar has been bullish during the course of the week, but still finds itself hanging around the 0.6550 level, a place that’s been like a magnet for price all summer. If we turn around a break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the previous week, then it’s possible that the Australian dollar could drop down to the 0.62 level. On the other hand, if we can somehow break above the 0.66 level, then the Australian dollar may have a real shot at going higher. Ultimately, this is a market that has been very choppy and somewhat sideways.

Bitcoin has gone back and forth during the course of the week, after initially pulling back. That being said, we still see the $120,000 level above is a significant barrier, and if we can break above that level, then it’s likely that Bitcoin will continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching the $130,000 level next, as this market does like to move in $10,000 increments. At this point, it looks like the $110,000 level is a bit of a floor.

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• The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a drop in BoE rate cut expectations.

• Nearly half of the BoE officials were ready to keep interest rates unchanged.

• US unemployment claims data further supported rate cut bets.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a drop in BoE rate cut expectations after a divided vote at the last meeting.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD 

The GBP/USD pair ended the week bullish as the pound rallied after an unexpected Bank of England policy meeting. At the same time, the dollar eased amid an increase in Fed rate cut expectations, allowing sterling to climb.

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The BoE cut interest rates as expected last week. However, policymakers had to vote twice before deciding. Nearly half the officials were ready to keep interest rates unchanged due to the high inflation in the UK. As a result, future rate cut expectations fell and the pound rallied. 

Meanwhile, in the US, data on business activity and unemployment claims further supported rate cut bets, weighing on the dollar.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD 

Next week, the UK will release employment figures, manufacturing production, and GDP data. Meanwhile, the US will release inflation and retail sales figures. The UK economy has fared poorly according to recent economic data, especially in the labor market. Another set of downbeat employment figures could increase expectations for more BoE rate cuts, hurting the pound. 

Meanwhile, in the US, rate cut bets have risen sharply due to a slowdown in the labor market. However, bets might drop with another upbeat employment report.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: SMA break signals likely reversal

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 22-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, suggesting stronger bullish momentum. Initially, the price had started showing signs of a downtrend. It broke below the SMA, retested it, and made a lower low. 

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However, at the 1.3151 support, bulls emerged with renewed strength and pushed the price above the SMA. However, bulls must now break above the 1.3451 key level. Such a move would clear the path for the price to retest the 1.3803 resistance level. Meanwhile, a break above this level would resume the previous uptrend. 

However, there is also a chance that the price might fail to break above the 1.3451 resistance. In such a case, the price would drop to retest the 1.3151 support level. A break below would resume the downtrend.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back a little bit against the Japanese yen, only to shoot straight up in the air again. We find ourselves at the all too familiar 148 yen level, an area that’s been important multiple times, and an area that also sees the 200 day EMA hanging around. In other words, this is an area that I think makes a lot of sense that we end up at. And the question now is, can we break above there finally? If and when we do, then I think we could make a move towards the 151 yen level. On a breakdown, the 50 day EMA being broken to the downside opens up the possibility of a drop to the 145 yen level.

USD/USD Technical Analysis

In the Australian dollar, we see the same pattern playing out, we try to rally, but just can’t quite get there. The 0.6550 level continues to be a major magnet for price, but now it’s starting to act as resistance. We had previously been on a somewhat well-defined channel. Now we find ourselves not being able to get back into it. The Asian currencies on the whole, all look a bit suspicious to me. And of course, Australia is right there in the mix as it is one of the most important ones in the region for growth and commodities. So, this to me looks like a market that’s trying to roll back over, but we’ll have to wait and see. 0.6550 is your decision line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The price of (EURUSD) rose in its last intraday trading, amid its continued attempts to gain positive momentum that might assist its recovery and breaching the stubborn resistance at 1.1670, this resistance prevents the recovery in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of minor bullish wave on the short-term basis, with the beginning of the positive signals on the (RSI), besides the continuation of the dynamic support that comes from its trading above EMA50, representing a dynamic support that expands the positive momentum.

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• GBP/USD consolidates weekly gains near 1.3450 in the European session on Friday.
• The BoE vote-split boosted Pound Sterling on Thursday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to overbought conditions.

GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase near 1.3450 after rising more than 0.6% on Thursday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook suggests that there could be a downward correction before the next leg higher.

Pound Sterling gathered strength against its rivals on Thursday after the Bank of England announced that it decided to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) by a slim 5-4 majority following a second round of voting. Markets were expecting only two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote for a policy hold.

In the post-meeting press conference, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that it is important that they do not cut the policy rate too quickly or too much, further supporting Pound Sterling.

Reflecting the broad-based GBP strength, EUR/GBP fell 0.6%, while GBP/JPY rose 0.5% on Thursday.

The economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases on Friday. Profit-taking toward the end of the European session could cause GBP/USD to correct lower. On a weekly basis, the pair is up more than 1%.

Nevertheless, in case risk flows dominate the action in financial markets in the American session, the US Dollar (USD) could struggle to find demand and help GBP/USD keep its footing.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD broke above the upper limit of the descending regression channel and cleared the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 70, suggesting that the pair remains technically overbought and could edge lower before the next leg higher.

On the downside, 1.3385-1.3400 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the downtrend) could be seen as the first support area before 1.3310-1.3290 (50-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).

Looking north, the immediate resistance could be spotted at 1.3460 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) ahead of 1.3500 (200-period SMA, round level) and 1.3530 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).