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Gold (XAU/USD) is heading lower on a choppy trading session on Friday, weighed by a firmer US Dollar amid the risk-averse sentiment. The Precious metal has broken below a previous resistance area, at $4,150 ahead of the US session opening, reaching intraday lows near $4,130 so far.
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The Greenback is trimming some losses on Friday as market sentiment soured with European equity markets in the red, following the track of Wall Street and Asia. Furthermore, the hawkish comments from Fed officials have prompted investors to pare back hopes of Fed easing in December, which has provided some support to the US Dollar.
From a technical perspective, the lower high printed earlier on Thursday, coupled with the dip on the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is flirting with the 50 level at the time of writing, and the bearish cross on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), is acting as a warning for buyers.
Below $4,150 (November 11 high, Thursday’s low), the next support level is at the $4,100 area, where the November 11,12 lows meet the trendline support from early November lows. Further down, a previous resistance area at $4,050 (October 31 highs) will come into focus.
Immediate resistance is at the daily high of $4,210, ahead of Thursday’s high, near $4,245. Bulls would need to break above these levels to resume the upside trend and shift their views towards the all-time highs around $4,380 (the highs of October 20 and 21).
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Copper price trading fluctuated in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of bearish corrective wave on the short-term basis, affected by breaking minor bullish trendline, besides the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reducing the chance of the price recovery on the near-term basis, especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, indicating the beginning of forming negative divergence, intensifying the negative pressure.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in copper price’s upcoming intraday trading, especially if it settles below $5.1375, targeting the key support at $5.0885 and there are strong chances of breaking it.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.0885 and$5.1590
Trend forecast: Bearish
Copper price trading fluctuated in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of bearish corrective wave on the short-term basis, affected by breaking minor bullish trendline, besides the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reducing the chance of the price recovery on the near-term basis, especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, indicating the beginning of forming negative divergence, intensifying the negative pressure.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in copper price’s upcoming intraday trading, especially if it settles below $5.1375, targeting the key support at $5.0885 and there are strong chances of breaking it.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.0885 and$5.1590
Trend forecast: Bearish
Copper price trading fluctuated in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of bearish corrective wave on the short-term basis, affected by breaking minor bullish trendline, besides the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reducing the chance of the price recovery on the near-term basis, especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, indicating the beginning of forming negative divergence, intensifying the negative pressure.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in copper price’s upcoming intraday trading, especially if it settles below $5.1375, targeting the key support at $5.0885 and there are strong chances of breaking it.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.0885 and$5.1590
Trend forecast: Bearish
Copper price trading fluctuated in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of bearish corrective wave on the short-term basis, affected by breaking minor bullish trendline, besides the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reducing the chance of the price recovery on the near-term basis, especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, indicating the beginning of forming negative divergence, intensifying the negative pressure.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in copper price’s upcoming intraday trading, especially if it settles below $5.1375, targeting the key support at $5.0885 and there are strong chances of breaking it.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.0885 and$5.1590
Trend forecast: Bearish
The British pound came under pressure after a series of UK data releases fell short of expectations, indirectly offering some temporary support to the DXY.
Monthly GDP slipped -0.1% against a forecast of 0.0%, while industrial production recorded a sharp -2.0% decline compared with the expected -0.5%. Manufacturing production also dropped -1.7%, underperforming both the forecast and previous readings.
Only quarterly GDP provided a small positive surprise at 0.1%. These softer numbers weighed on overall risk sentiment and reinforced concerns about slowing UK economic momentum. Eurozone industrial production also disappointed at 0.2%, well below the 0.7% forecast, further pressuring European currencies.
Several Federal Reserve officials, including Collins, Daly, Musalem, Kashkari, and Hammack, delivered remarks throughout the day, but none endorsed immediate policy easing.
Their tone remained data-dependent, signaling that the central bank needs clearer visibility before adjusting rates. This kept rate-cut expectations anchored for early 2026 and provided little directional support for the dollar.
Meanwhile, US Crude Oil Inventories rose 6.4M versus a 1.0M forecast, hinting at softer demand and contributing to broader market caution.
The pullback now probes these former breakout levels as potential support. Holding here would reinforce bullish continuation; a weak daily close, however, risks failure of the channel lines and opens deeper correction toward the 20-day average.
The 20-day average at $4,072—recently sideways and now edging lower—defines the primary near-term floor. The 10-day average at $4,049 adds short-term confluence, having proven support on both Monday and last Friday to fuel the ongoing advance.
Gold retains its higher swing low at $3,886 and stays above the new uptrend line connecting that base. Preserving this structure keeps the broader bullish trend intact despite short-term pressure.
This week’s decisive signal hinges on the weekly closing. A finish above the $4,109 weekly high would validate the breakout to today’s three-week peak at $4,245 and cement intermediate strength.
Surpassing $4,245 targets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,275. A clean push through that zone brings the $4,381 record high back into focus. The overall bull structure—untested rising 50-day average and supportive 10-week moving average—favors eventual continuation.
Gold’s test of the reclaimed channel lines will dictate near-term tone. Support at $4,145–$4,072 must hold to protect the breakout; failure opens risk to the 10-day and 20-day confluence. A weekly close above $4,109 confirms momentum and targets $4,275–$4,381. Any deeper pullback to dynamic averages would remain healthy for the trend, allowing demand to reload before the next assault on record highs.
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the fifth successive session, nearing the all-time high of $54.86, which was recorded on October 16, and is currently trading around $54.00 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Thursday.
The upside of the safe-haven Silver could be limited as market sentiment improves amid the end of the United States (US) government shutdown. US President Donald Trump signed the government funding bill on Thursday, marking the official end of the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill requires the Government to resume normal operations and call for direct payment for individuals to purchase healthcare.
The non-interest-bearing Silver gained support amid uncertainty over the US economic outlook and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy direction. Weaker-than-expected private labor data for October strengthened expectations of potential Fed policy easing, as the ADP Employment Change report on Tuesday indicated an average weekly job loss of 11,250 in the four weeks to October 25.
However, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December faded following recent hawkish Fedspeak. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in nearly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, down from 67% a day ago.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic addressed economic trends at the Atlanta Economic Club on Wednesday. Bostic cautioned that easing policy too soon could “feed the inflation beast,” while noting that a sharp downturn in the labor market is unlikely in the near term.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,185 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal drifts higher as traders anticipate that the reopening of the US government will restore the flow of economic data and reinforce bets of further US interest rate cuts.
A record shutdown in US history ended on Thursday after Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the government. The House of Representatives approved the bill earlier Thursday in a 222-209 vote, with nearly every Republican and a handful of Democrats voting for it. The expectation that US economic data released after the end of the shutdown will reveal US labor market weakness could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and lift the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
On Thursday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the government would publish the October employment data, but without the Unemployment Rate due to the lack of a household survey that month.
On the other hand, the cautious tone from the Fed officials could undermine the yellow metal. Boston Fed President Susan Collins used cautious language to express her opinion on policy, saying that it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Thursday have also expressed a preference for holding rates steady.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 51% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at its December meeting, down from 62.9% odds that markets priced in a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
This mix of economic resilience and policy divergence has traders questioning whether intervention looms before year-end.
While markets speculate about yen interventions and the BoJ’s rate path, US data and Fed speakers could influence US dollar demand later on Friday.
US producer prices and retail sales figures are set for release. Barring further delays to report releases, the two data sets will give key insights into inflation and consumption.
An uptick in producer prices could further temper bets on a December Fed rate cut, boosting demand for the US dollar. Meanwhile, weaker retail sales, likely because of the shutdown, combined with rising producer prices, could fuel stagflation fears.
With the Fed placing greater emphasis on inflation, higher producer prices would point to a less dovish stance, supporting a potential USD/JPY return to 155. Markets have cut expectations of a December rate cut in recent sessions, contributing to the USD/JPY return to 155.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has tumbled from 69.6% on November 6 to 50.7% on November 13.
Despite near-term strength, the broader outlook remains bearish because narrowing rate differentials could shift momentum in favor of the yen. The Fed remains on a dovish rate path, while the BoJ continues to keep a rate hike on the table. Additionally, markets may speculate about a shift in the Fed’s focus from inflation to supporting the economy, which could trigger US dollar weakness.
The key question now is whether markets buy into the Fed prioritizing inflation.