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David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Upward Momentum has Slowed”

Pound Still Vulnerable on Fundamental Grounds, GBP/USD Still Looking for Escape Velocity

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) secured a further recovery last Friday as the dollar lost ground.

It hit highs of 1.3180 in early Europe on Monday amid a jump in risk appetite before settling around 1.3160 with unease over UK fundamentals limiting the scope for further gains.

According to UoB; “Upward momentum has slowed, and today, we expect GBP to trade in range, most likely between 1.3105 and 1.3175.”

Standard Chartered commented; “GBP/USD appears technically oversold, leaving scope for a short-term corrective rebound. We see the significant resistance around 1.35.”

Risk appetite has been boosted by hopes that the US government shutdown will end following the Senate vote in favour of the latest compromise bill.

A boost to risk appetite could undermine the US currency, although there would also be an important element of relief surrounding the economy amid increased evidence that the shutdown is having a damaging impact.

ING commented; “While some might argue that the end of the shutdown could be a risk-on, dollar-negative impulse for the FX markets, its impact may be more mixed. Late last week, the dollar was under pressure on job layoffs and rhetoric that the US economy could contract in the fourth quarter should the shutdown extend.”

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index retreated to 50.3 for November from 53.6 previously. This was below expectations of 53.0 and the second-weakest reading on record.

MUFG added; “Household finances deteriorated markedly with the index also hitting a record low in November.”

According to ING market analyst Tony Sycamore; “The consumer confidence data was a shocker and pretty clear evidence that the shutdown was affecting households, so this does alleviate the damage that’s been done.”

Domestically, markets will continue to monitor any hints surrounding tax measures in the November 26th budget. Fiscal policy will also feed into expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.

UK data will also be watched closely with the labour-market release on Tuesday.

Consensus forecasts are for the unemployment rate to edge higher to a fresh 4-year high of 4.9% from 4.8% while underlying earnings growth is expected to slow to 4.6% from 4.7%.

Weaker than expected data would reinforce expectations that BoE Governor Bailey will back a rate cut at the December meeting.

ING remains cautious surrounding the Pound prospects; “We still think the prospects of a December 25bp cut from the Bank of England are underpriced. The market now attaches just a 60% probability to such an outcome.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on November 11, 2025

• I analyze USD/JPY’s continued strength, noting resistance near ¥154–155 and support at ¥153.
• With interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. dollar and Japan’s ongoing quantitative easing, I expect further upside toward ¥160 on pullbacks.

The U.S. dollar has shown itself to be stronger against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Monday as we are trying to break above the ¥154 level, but it’s probably going to take some type of external pressure or whatever to get this pair going higher. If we finally clear the ¥155 level, then I think you’ve got a real shot at this market taking off to the upside. And if it does, then we really get moving much higher.

Support Below

That being said, I think you also have to keep in mind that the ¥153 level offers support, and it’s an area that previously had been resistance. When I look at this, I think market memory coming into play makes a certain amount of sense. The interest rate differential, of course, favors the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, and I think it probably will going forward.

Ultimately, this is a market where the interest rate differential really makes the difference, and with this being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see the market really take off toward the ¥160 level.

This is especially true as the Bank of Japan has no real hope of cutting the quantitative easing trajectory that they’ve been on for decades. The Federal Reserve has recently suggested that the rate-cutting cycle may not be as aggressive as the market has been pricing in, and therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where it’s a bit of a perfect storm. So, at this point, I do like this market on dips, as I think it gives you value that you can take advantage of from time to time.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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The EURJPY pair faced new bullish pressure due to stochastic approach from the overbought level, to achieve some gains by its stability near 178.45.

Reminding you that activating the bullish attack requires surpassing 178.70 level and holding above it, to ease the mission of recording new gains that might begin at 179.40, while the failure of the breach will push it to form mixed trading, and there is a chance for gathering gains again by reaching 177.50 initially, reaching the extra support near 177.05.

The expected trading range for today is between 177.70 and 178.70

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track