XAU/USD Current price: $3,297.87

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will have lots to explain today.
• Encouraging United States data fueled demand for the American currency.
• XAU/USD broke below the $3,300 level and could reach the $3,260 region.

Gold trades below the $3,300 mark shedding ground on the back of broad US Dollar’s (USD) strength. The Greenback maintained a strong footing ever since the week started, helped by encouraging headlines related to trade deals. However, the USD soared on Wednesday, following the release of unexpectedly encouraging United States (US) data and ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.

Speculative interest welcomed news indicating that the US economy grew at a faster than anticipated pace in the second quarter of the year, while inflationary pressures in the same period eased. Even further, employment-related figures kept pointing at a solid labor market, which may be a bit of a concern for the Fed, but in general means the world’s largest economy is much healthier than feared.

The US ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 104K new positions in July, much better than the 78K expected, and well-above the -33K expected. More relevant, the flash estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product surpassed expectations, as the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, much better than the 2.4% anticipated or the -0.5% from Q1.

Finally, The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, indicated easing inflationary pressures as the index rose by 2.5% in the three months to June, down from the 3.5% posted in Q1.

XAU/USD remains pressured as investors gear up for the Fed announcement. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, floating between 4.25% and 4.50%. The central bank will release a statement with policymakers reasoning behind the decision. Finally, Chair Jerome Powell will offer a press conference, to further clarify officials’ stance.

Given that the decision has been long ago priced in, the focus will be on Powell’s words, and any hint he may give on future monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides intraday resistance for a third consecutive day, rejecting advances at around $3,345. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, provides support at around $3,263.00, a potential bearish target should the USD keeps gaining ground. Finally technical indicators turned south below their midlines, supporting a downward extension.

The near-term picture is bearish. The 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD shows technical indicators head firmly south within negative levels, while the pair plummeted below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $3,325.00, extending its slide below directionless and converging 100 and 200 SMAs.

Support levels: 3,287.30 3,274.05 3,249.60

Resistance levels: 3,311.15 3,328.60 3,345.00

Natural gas prices provided a new positive close above $3.050 level, forming the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern that appears in the above image, taking advantage of stochastic exit from the oversold level and providing positive momentum again.

The price success to settle above $3.050 will decrease the risk of moving to a new bearish station, providing chances to begin recording some of the gains by its rally to $3.320 and $3.450, while breaking the neckline and holding below it will force it to suffer big losses by reaching $2.710 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.10 and 3.320

Trend forecast: Bullish by the stability of $3.050

The 9th OPEC International Seminar was held in Vienna a week ago, wherein participants discussed energy security, investment, climate change, and energy poverty, with a particular emphasis on balancing these competing priorities. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the summit titled “Charting Pathways Together: The Future of Global Energy” featured significantly greater engagement from international oil companies and consuming country governments, with discussions converging on a more inclusive shared agenda rather than non-intersecting approaches seen in previous years. However, StanChart reported there was a clear mismatch between what energy producers vs. market analysts think about spare production capacity. Unlike Wall Street analysts, who frequently talk about spare capacity of 5-6 million barrels per day (mb/d), speakers from several sectors of the industry noted thatspare capacity is both limited and very geographically concentrated. 

StanChart believes this erroneous assumption about spare capacity has been a big drag on oil prices, and the implications for the whole forward curve of oil prices could be potentially profound once traders realize that roughly two-thirds of the capacity they thought was available on demand does not actually exist. This makes the analysts bullish about the general shape of their forecast 2026 price trajectory (Figure 32), i.e., a set of significant upward shifts as opposed to the flat trajectory seen in the market curve and in analyst consensus. In other words, oil prices could have as much as $15/barrel upside from current levels.

Source: Standard Chartered Research

StanChart is not the only oil bull here. Goldman Sachs recently hiked its oil price forecast for H2 2025, saying the market is increasingly shifting its focus from recession fears to potential supply disruptions, low spare capacity, lower oil inventories especially among OECD countries and production constraints by Russia. GS has increased its Brent forecast by $5/bbl to $66/bbl, and by $6 for WTI crude to $63/bbl, slightly lower than current levels of $68.34/bbl and 66.24/bbl for Brent and WTI crude, respectively. However, the Wall Street bank has maintained its 2026 price forecast at $56/bbl for Brent and $52 for WTI, due to “an offset between a boost from higher long-dated prices and a hit from a wider 1.7M bbl/day surplus.’’ Previously, GS had forecast a 1.5M bbl/day surplus for the coming year. Further, Goldman sees a stronger oil price rebound beyond 2026 due to reduced spare capacity.

Bullish On Gas Prices

EU natural gas inventories have climbed at  faster-than-average clip in recent times. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, Europe’s gas inventories stood at 73.10 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 13 July, good for a 2.31 bcm w/w increase. Still, the injection rate is not enough to completely fill the continent’s gas stores, with the current clip on track to take inventories to about 97.9 bcm, or 84.3% of storage capacity, at the end of the injection season. 

Europe’s gas demand remains fairly lacklustre despite extremely high temperatures across much of the continent in recent weeks. According to estimates by StanChart, EU gas

demand for the first 14 days of July averaged 583 million cubic meters/day, nearly 3% lower from a year ago but a 10% improvement from the June lows. 

However, StanChart is bullish on natural gas prices, saying the market is likely underestimating the likelihood of more Russian gas being taken off the markets. 

Back in April, U.S. senators Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat),  introduced ‘Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025’, with the legislation enjoying broad bipartisan support (85 co-sponsors in the Senate out of 100 senators). In a joint statement on 14 July, the two senators noted that President Trump’s decision to implement 100% secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days but pledged that they will continue to work on “bipartisan Russia sanctions legislation that would implement up to 500 percent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas”. StanChart has predicted that the Trump administration is unlikely to take actions that risk driving oil prices higher; however, Russian gas remains in the crosshairs, with U.S. LNG likely to see a surge in demand if Russian gas exports are curtailed. 

StanChart estimates that the EU’s net imports of Russian pipeline gas averaged 79.8 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) in the first 14 days of July, with all non-transit flows into the EU coming into Bulgaria through the Turkstream pipeline, with Hungary and Slovakia also receiving Turkstream gas. There was also a flow of about 65 mcm/d of Russian LNG in the first half of July, with Russia providing 18.6% of the EU’s net imports. StanChart has predicted that we could see a strong rally in natural gas prices if Washington slaps Moscow with fresh gas sanctions.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Breakdown Shows Seller in Control

The breakdown of the trendline was confirmed by Monday’s closing price below the line. Then, on Tuesday, gold found resistance at the trendline with the day’s high of $3,334. That showed prior support of the trendline as resistance. The low for the day at $3,308 was almost an exact retest of support at the interim swing low of $3,310. Although that low failed briefly on Monday, as a low for the day of $3,302 hit intraday, the quick recovery shows support being retained around the interim swing low.

Above $3,345 Needed for Bulls

A rally above Tuesday’s high of $3,334 will show strength and the potential for a bullish reversal. But a rally above Monday’s high of $3,345 provides clearer confirmation as a three-day high will have been reached and two moving averages reclaimed. It is interesting to note that the 20-Day and 50-Day moving averages are the closest to each other since the last bullish crossover in January. This shows strong potential resistance and the likelihood that volatility is close to expanding rapidly.

Selling Pressure Intensifies

The breakdown of the pennant points to possible continuation to the downside. A drop below Tuesday’s low of $3,308 will indicate weakness that will confirm a decline below $3,302. That would put gold in sight of a test of support around the higher swing low of $3,247 (C). The weekly chart supports a bearish scenario, although it is within the context of a consolidation pennant formation and therefore may be less reliable. Last week completed a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern and it triggered this week below $3,325.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Natural gas prices provided a new positive close above $3.050 level, forming the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern that appears in the above image, taking advantage of stochastic exit from the oversold level and providing positive momentum again.

The price success to settle above $3.050 will decrease the risk of moving to a new bearish station, providing chances to begin recording some of the gains by its rally to $3.320 and $3.450, while breaking the neckline and holding below it will force it to suffer big losses by reaching $2.710 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.10 and 3.320

Trend forecast: Bullish by the stability of $3.050