Copper price remains affected by the negative factors, which forces it to delay the positive attempts and provide some corrective trading by its stability near $4.9000, reminding you the continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic might force it to retest the extra support at $4.7500, and breaking this support will force it to suffer extra losses that might extend towards $4.5400 and $4.3200.
While activating the bullish track requires forming strong bullish waves, to settle above $5.2000 level, then attempts to record extra gains by its rally towards $5.3200 and $5.5100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7500 and $5.0500
Platinum price didn’t change anything due to its fluctuation between the levels of the current sideways track, that are represented by $1605.00, and $1525.00, which represents a key support for reducing the chances of suffering extra losses.
Note that stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum might push the price to form bullish trading, to attempt to renew the pressure on the previously mentioned barrier, to find an exit to record extra gains in the upcoming period, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it to suffer several losses that begin at $1485.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 985.00 and 1040.00
Platinum price didn’t change anything due to its fluctuation between the levels of the current sideways track, that are represented by $1605.00, and $1525.00, which represents a key support for reducing the chances of suffering extra losses.
Note that stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum might push the price to form bullish trading, to attempt to renew the pressure on the previously mentioned barrier, to find an exit to record extra gains in the upcoming period, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it to suffer several losses that begin at $1485.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 985.00 and 1040.00
The GBP/USD forecast shows the pound trading lower amid the BoE’s dovish policy stance.
The BoE kept rates unchanged at 4%, increasing the probability for easing in the coming months.
Traders await the US preliminary UoM reports and commentary from FOMC and MPC members for further policy cues.
The GBP/USD forecast shows the pair trading slightly lower on Friday, near 1.3100, as the pound weakened amid the Bank of England’s dovish policy decision. As expected, the BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 4% in the November meeting.
The MPC members’ votes revealed a 5-4 split, highlighting growing support for further rate cuts by the central bank. Four policymakers favored a 25 bps reduction to 3.75%, suggesting that the Central Bank could prepare for policy easing sooner than expected.
The BoE’s stance also implied that if disinflation persists, the bank rate could gradually decline to support the easing economy instead of mitigating inflation. This stance weighed on the pound sterling, with investors anticipating a potential December rate cut, declining bond yields, and the pound’s momentum after its last rally.
Across the Atlantic, the greenback witnessed a boost amid fresh safe-haven demand and cautious optimism regarding the Fed’s next move. The US labor data came in softer, revealing over 153,000 job cuts in October, its highest in the past two decades. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in a 67% probability of a December Fed cut, instead of yesterday’s 62%. Meanwhile, the ongoing Federal government shutdown has halted key data releases, with traders focusing on private data sources for further near-term clues.
GBP/USD Daily Key Events
The major events in the day include:
MPC Member Pill Speaks
FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
On Friday, traders await the commentary from MPC member Pill and FOMC member Jefferson, along with the US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment, to gauge the momentum.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Struggling to Hold Above 1.3100
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD 4-hour chart suggests a mild bearish bias as the pair trades near 1.3100, losing ground after surging from previous lows near 1.3050. The price remains below the key 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs, indicating the bearish bias continues. However, the 20-MA near 1.3085 could support the pair.
The RSI declined to 50.0, suggesting consolidation after reaching posting recovery from 1.3000 mark. A sustained breach above the 50-MA near 1.3140 could open room for 1.13260. Conversely, a drop below 1.3100 could potentially trigger renewed selling pressure, extending the downside towards 1.3050 and 1.3000.
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Support Levels
Resistance Levels
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Silver (XAG/USD) extends its recovery for the third consecutive session on Thursday, trading near $48.70, up nearly 2.40% on the day, as buyers return after defending the $45.00-$46.00 demand zone.
The rebound follows a sharp correction that saw the metal fall nearly 16% from its all-time high of $54.86 earlier this month to a one-month low of $45.56, before stabilizing above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The latest leg higher appears to be driven more by technical buying than fresh fundamental catalysts, as improved risk sentiment surrounding the US-China trade truce has, in fact, limited safe-haven demand for precious metals.
However, some support stems from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut on Wednesday, though the upside remains capped after markets interpreted it as a hawkish cut following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s signal that further policy easing is unlikely, saying that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion.”
From a technical perspective, the daily chart continues to show a broader uptrend despite the recent sharp correction. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen in the $49.00-$49.50 zone, which has capped gains in recent sessions and coincides with the 21-day SMA. A decisive close above this area would strengthen the case for a resumption of the uptrend.
On the downside, initial support lies at Thursday’s low of $47.26, followed by $45.56, the October 28 low, which closely aligns with the 50-day SMA, a region where dip-buying interest has recently emerged. A break below this zone would risk extending the corrective pullback toward the next key area around $44.50-$43.00.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to 53 after briefly dipping below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that bearish momentum has slightly eased while buyers are beginning to regain control. Overall, Silver maintains a constructive near-term outlook, with the broader trend still intact as long as the metal holds above $45.50.
Meanwhile, the Fixed Range Volume Profile drawn from the September 18 low of $41.20 to the all-time high of $54.86 shows the Point of Control (POC) around $48.20-$48.50, indicating a critical area of volume-based support where recent consolidation has been concentrated.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
FX Empire – Survey of Consumers – University of Michigan
Waning consumer confidence and elevated inflation expectations could signal a pullback in consumer spending. Softer spending trends could dampen inflation and the US economy, given that private consumption accounts for roughly 65% of GDP.
A cooling inflation outlook and potential loss of economic momentum may raise expectations of a December Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed rate path could push USD/JPY toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
On the other hand, a pickup in consumer sentiment and easing inflation expectations could signal an upswing in consumer spending, supporting a less hawkish Fed policy stance. Fading bets on a December Fed rate cut could send USD/JPY toward the November 4 high of 154.483.
Fed Speakers in Focus as Labor Market Data Flashes Red
Beyond the data, FOMC members’ speeches will require consideration, given growing concerns about the US labor market. According to Challenger, Gray, & Christmas data, job cuts soared from 54.064k in September to 153.074k in October, raising bets on a December Fed rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December policy adjustment rose from 62.0% to 70.6% on Thursday, November 6.
Growing Fed support for a rate cut in December could weigh on the US dollar, supporting a USD/JPY fall toward 151 and the 50-day EMA. Conversely, continued concerns about elevated inflation, despite a cooling labor market, may send the pair toward 154.483.
Given the US labor market data and potential impact on wage growth and spending, the near-term outlook looks bearish for USD/JPY.
USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Hawkish BoJ rhetoric, intervention threats, weak US data, and dovish Fed cues could push USD/JPY toward 151.
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Dovish BoJ commentary, strong US data, and hawkish Fed policy signals could send USD/JPY toward 154.483.
Tuesday’s initial bear-flag breakdown has produced almost no follow-through yet, but today’s rejection at the flag’s top (10-day MA) keeps bears in control. A drop below today’s $3,964 low triggers a second breakdown signal; confirmation arrives beneath Tuesday’s $3,929 low, with the $3,886 swing low as the next domino.
Primary Support Zone
The 50-day average ($3,867 and rising) converges with the 50% retracement at $3,846, forming the highest-probability bounce zone. Given the sluggish bearish momentum, the 50-day line may climb above the $3,886 swing low before price ever reaches it, tightening the support pocket further.
Deeper Targets if Support Fails
Should $3,846–$3,867 crack, the 61.8% Fibonacci at $3,720 enters play alongside the rising channel centerline—both logical destinations after mid-October’s false bullish breakout above the same channel.
Upside Validation
Bulls reclaim near-term momentum only with a rally back above the 10-day average and today’s $4,020 high. That would open a retest of the 20-day line at $4,083 (last week’s bounce stalled at $4,046, well short of target).
Weekly Inside Week Setup
With two trading days remaining, gold is on track to close as an inside week. Inside weeks following extreme moves routinely precede sharp directional breaks; next week’s resolution above or below this week’s $3,929–$4,020 range will dictate the next swing.
Outlook
Continued chop is expected until the 50-day average and 50% retracement provide support near $3,846–$3,867. That confluence, combined with the false bullish channel breakout in mid-October and the rising channel centerline, marks a high-probability area for a bullish reversal. Failure there targets the 61.8% level at $3,720. On the weekly chart, an inside week setup positions gold for a potential breakout next week. Hold above the recent swing low at $3,886 maintains the broader uptrend; a decisive rally above the 10-day average and $4,020 high targets the 20-day line at $4,083.
The British pound rallied early Thursday following the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates, but the overall trend remains bearish.
Resistance sits near 1.32, with downside risks below 1.30 potentially extending toward 1.2750.
The British pound has rallied significantly during the early hours on Thursday as the market reacts to the Bank of England and its interest rate decision, which was to keep things as they were. However, it’s also worth noting that the Bank of England is narrowly maintaining its stance. With that being the case, I believe we are still very much in a downtrend, and I’ll be watching the 1.32 level for potential resistance. That area had previously acted as support, and the 200-day EMA moving toward that zone also adds to the resistance that we could see on any attempt to break higher.
Ultimately, this move looks like a rebound from the 1.30 level, a large round number with psychological significance that attracts plenty of market attention. If and when we break down below 1.30, the British pound will likely target the 1.2750 level. Conversely, a break above the 200-day EMA, currently at 1.3265, might signal a recovery, though it’s important to remember that we remain well below that moving average, and this is what some people will look at to determine the longer-term trend in a market.
The 50-day EMA is now dropping sharply toward the 200-day EMA, setting up the possibility of a “death cross.” The prior uptrend line has been broken, retested, and then followed by another sell-off. All things considered, this is a market where traders are likely watching for signs of exhaustion to start selling into. While the pound’s reprieve for the day may draw attention, it doesn’t change the overall downward trajectory of this currency pair.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
For the next couple of months, I’m long only on natural gas. It’s just a matter of trying to get a decent price so that I can step in and start buying. I’ve got no interest in shorting it, like I said, and at least until we get to something like the March or April contract, I’m going to be looking for any dip as a trading signal.
I’d be particularly interested in the $3.60 level, but that is a pretty significant drop from here. Last month, when we opened up the November contract, we gapped higher, rallied pretty significantly, pulled back to fill the gap, and then gapped higher at the open again for the day here on the 20th. We never filled that but then gapped massively when we opened up the December contract.
So, I think we’re going to continue to see that type of behavior. Now all I need to do is see a price that’s worth chasing. I don’t like chasing after a move like we’ve seen here recently, and in fact, last week we had something like a 30% gain. That’s not what prudent traders do.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
As I analyze the U.S. dollar’s decline against the Japanese yen, I emphasize key support near ¥153 and ¥150.
Despite recent weakness, I expect buyers to return, favoring the dollar as the broader uptrend remains intact due to rate differentials.
The U.S. dollar fell pretty significantly during the trading session on Thursday against the Japanese yen, but we find ourselves hanging around the crucial ¥153 level. The ¥153 level is an area that a lot of people have been paying close attention to multiple times in the past, and therefore, I think if we get some type of breakdown from here, there’s plenty of support all the way down to the ¥151.50 level, possibly even the 50-day EMA, which is at the ¥150.66 level.
The ¥150 level is a major support area after that. It really isn’t until we break down below the ¥150 level that I think we see a potential shift in the trend, and right now I think that’s a bit much to ask. I like the idea of buying the bounce if and when we get it, and therefore, I expect a certain amount of volume to come back into the market and push it higher. For now, my job is simply to wait and get involved once the market shows signs of life.
The Importance of 155 Yen
The ¥155 level is another area that many traders will be paying close attention to, as it has been important in the past. If we break above the ¥155 level, this market could continue to move much higher.
The interest rate differential will continue to favor the Americans, and the Bank of Japan really won’t have much opportunity to tighten monetary policy or close that differential between the two currencies. I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the overall uptrend continues. I plan on getting involved again once it does, adding to an already long position that I’ve held for months.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
