The (Brent) price settled with strong gains in its last intraday trading, after breaching the critical resistance at $70.75, supported by its continuous trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bias line on the short-term basis, on the other hand, we notice the beginning of negative overlapping signal appearance on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might reduce the last gains, and it needs to gather gains and gain some bullish momentum.
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The GBPJPY pair provided new bearish close by its stability below the broken bullish channel’s support, forming a new resistance at 198.45 to increase the chances for the dominance of the suggested bearish bias by its fluctuation near 197.75.
The continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic supports the negative suggestion, to keep waiting for targeting 197.50 level, where breaking it will open the way for suffering extra losses that might extend to 196.55 and 195.75, while regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong positive rally to settle above 198.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 196.55 and 198.30
The (Brent) price settled with strong gains in its last intraday trading, after breaching the critical resistance at $70.75, supported by its continuous trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bias line on the short-term basis, on the other hand, we notice the beginning of negative overlapping signal appearance on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might reduce the last gains, and it needs to gather gains and gain some bullish momentum.
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The GBPJPY pair provided new bearish close by its stability below the broken bullish channel’s support, forming a new resistance at 198.45 to increase the chances for the dominance of the suggested bearish bias by its fluctuation near 197.75.
The continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic supports the negative suggestion, to keep waiting for targeting 197.50 level, where breaking it will open the way for suffering extra losses that might extend to 196.55 and 195.75, while regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong positive rally to settle above 198.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 196.55 and 198.30
Nonetheless, today’s high of $70.60 was a successful test of resistance around a prior support trendline and it completed the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern. Given the wide trading range for today, a pullback to test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $68.43, would be possible. It can be watched along with a minor swing high of $68.77 for possible support.
Notice that crude oil could continue to rise towards the next higher target zone of $71.73, yet remain below the rising trendline, which is also a lower channel line. That target zone is the confluence of a 50% retracement level and a 127.2% projected ABCD target at $71.84.
Higher Resistance Zone
Since the rally reached a five-week high, there is the potential for higher targets to eventually be approached. The 20-Week MA (not shown) is also providing bullish evidence for further strength. It was essentially a match of trend support that is represented by the 50-Day MA on the daily chart. If crude can retain strength into Friday, it might have its highest weekly closing price in six weeks.
Buyers Return
Nonetheless, it looks like a continuation of strength would be in reaction to the sharp rapid decline from the $78.44 swing high hit five weeks ago. It seems like if correct, a sharp rally into the next higher target zone might be possible. Bullish momentum clearly improved today, and the day’s low was a successful test of support at the 20-Day MA.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
A daily close above Monday’s high of $3.14 will confirm a one-day bullish reversal, while a closing price above Thursday’s high of $3.17 confirms a stronger a three-day reversal. That could establish a sustainable bottom and a higher swing low. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t be surprising to see additional tests of support within a range down to the $2.98 low. The trendline that represents dynamic support for the uptrend will represent a higher price point moving forward.
So, that might indicate support during pullbacks should be seen above Monday’s low as the trendline will be reached before that low. Tuesday’s low of $3.10 is support and a drop below that level could lead to another test of support around the prior trend low of $3.06, or a long-term pivot (dashed), also around $3.10.
20-Day Line Resistance
The initial upside target for natural gas looks to be around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.33. Above there is possible resistance around the 200-Day MA, currently at $3.46. Those two levels can provide a guide if higher prices are approached. If natural gas continues to trade below the 200-Day line, it will face downward pressure. At the same time, a sustained bullish reversal from both support of the long-term trendline and long-term AVWAP support line, is bullish and confirms the integrity of the long-term uptrend.
Below $2.98 Turns Bearish
Regardless of the potential for continued strength, a drop below Monday’s low of $2.98 could see a decline below the AVWAP line. This would likely lead to a test of support around the swing low of $2.86. A little lower is a 78.6% retracement level at $2.79.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
US trade deals and profit taking ahead of first-tier events fueled the US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday.
XAU/USD pressures the $3,300 level, aims to break below it.
Spot Gold plunged to $3,301.90 on Monday, as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened across the FX board. The Greenback surged following news that the United States (US) clinched a trade deal with the European Union (EU) while resuming talks with China. On the latter, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that it is a good sign, yet added he does not expect a breakthrough.
Other than that, profit-taking ahead of multiple central bank announcements and first-tier data releases contributed to the USD’s momentum. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on monetary policy next Wednesday, while the country will release the flash estimate of Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) earlier in the day. The US will also release an updated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
The Fed’s decision will be under scrutiny amid US President Donald Trump’s rage against Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold despite pressure from the White House to lower them. Encouraging growth and inflation figures would back Trump’s case, and add to Powell’s burden.
But is not just the Fed, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce monetary policy decisions, while other major economies will post updates on growth and inflation.
Meanwhile, global stocks are up, with Wall Street holding on to substantial gains but easing from its pre-opening peaks.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it keeps posting lower lows and lower highs, in line with the ongoing downward trend. The pair has broken below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently provides dynamic resistance at around $3,345.00. At the same time, the Momentum indicator is flat at around its 100 line, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator anticipates another leg lower by heading firmly south at around 44. A bullish 100 SMA, in the meantime, provides support at around $3,250.
In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD is currently below all its moving averages, with an almost vertical 20 SMA about to cross below directionless and converging 100 and 200 SMAs in the $3,350 region. Technical indicators diverge in direction, but remain within negative levels. The Momentum advances amid the bounce from the intraday low, but remains well below its midline, while the RSI indicator maintains the downward pressure near oversold readings, hinting at another leg south.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) has extended its substantial rally seen on Monday, to trade at 1.1548 at the time of updating.
Pound Sterling rallied from the weekly open of 1.1412 to test highs of 1.1555 on Tuesday representing a 1.25 percent gain so far this week.
According to FX analysts at ING Bank, “We saw a huge move lower in EUR/GBP yesterday. Ex post, it could be seen as the UK having a better deal than the EU when it comes to trade.
“In reality, however, it was probably all to do with positioning, where opposing fiscal and monetary prospects between the eurozone and the UK had made long EUR/GBP one of the conviction trades this summer.”
The Pound-to-Euro rate had slumped to 20-month lows close to 1.1420 after Monday’s Asian open before rallying to 1.1490 as the Euro lost ground in global markets and equities made net gains.
The Euro overall lost ground amid a correction from strong gains last week as the Euro-Zone economy will still take a hit.
There are still significant reservations surrounding the UK economy.
According to ING there is the potential for strong GBP/EUR support on any dips to 1.1365. It added, “Sitting long EUR/GBP in quiet August markets is again carrying negative, and a very light UK calendar this week looks unlikely to provide the incentives to add to short sterling positions. Perhaps EUR/GBP can trade something like a 0.8700-0.8770 range this week.” (1.1400 – 1.1495 for GBP/EUR)
Risk appetite strengthened on Monday in response to the US-EU framework trade deal. The deal removed the immediate threat of 30% tariffs from August 1st and lessened the risk of a trade war between the two sides.
European equities hit a 4-month high in early trading while the FTSE 100 index posted a fresh record high.
The Pound tends to gain net support when global risk appetite strengthens.
National Australia Bank senior currency strategist Rodrigo Catril commented; “It could be a positive week, just purely from the fact that now we know the rules of the game, if you like.”
He added; “Now that there is more clarity, you would think that not only in the United States, but around the globe, there will be a little bit more willingness to look at investment, to look at expansions, and to look at where the opportunities are.”
According to Rabobank; “At the very least, the European Union will now not be hit by a 30% levy when the US reinstates its “reciprocal” tariffs. So, the deal should at least remove some of the uncertainty that plagued investors’ and corporates’ decision making.”
If traders are looking to engage in carry trades, high UK yields will offer net support.
The US trade stance with China will also be important with Beijing facing an August 12 deadline for a durable trade pact with the United States.
According to comments overnight, the two are expected to extend their tariff truce by three more months which would help underpin risk conditions.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday with strong expectations that rates will be held at 4.50% before cutting rates later in the year.
MUFG commented; “The Fed would have to deliver a hawkish policy surprise in the week ahead to disrupt FX carry trades by dropping plans for rate cuts which appears unlikely at the current juncture.”
The UK CBI retail trade survey improved slightly to -34 for July from -46 previously, but below consensus forecasts of -28 and the 10th successive decline.
Companies expect a further significant decline August as underlying pressures continue.
CBI principal economist Martin Sartorius commented; “Firms reported that elevated price pressures – driven by rising labour costs – and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household demand, which has contributed to sales volumes falling since October 2024.”
Mortgage lending data is due on Tuesday, but the overall UK economic calendar is light this week and parliament is in recess which will limit political chatter.
Labour disputes in the health sector will be scrutinised given concerns over underlying upward pressure on salaries which will further complicate fiscal policy.
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GBP/USD recovers after touching its lowest level in two months.
The technical outlook remains bearish, with a chance of a correction in the near term.
The US economic calendar will feature mid-tier data releases ahead of the Fed meeting.
GBP/USD trades slightly above 1.3350 after having touched its weakest level since late May below 1.3320 earlier in the day. The pair’s technical picture points to oversold conditions, suggesting that there could be a correction before the next leg lower.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
1.47%
0.51%
0.45%
0.29%
0.89%
0.88%
0.83%
EUR
-1.47%
-0.96%
-0.96%
-1.17%
-0.56%
-0.58%
-0.63%
GBP
-0.51%
0.96%
-0.20%
-0.21%
0.40%
0.38%
0.33%
JPY
-0.45%
0.96%
0.20%
-0.15%
0.41%
0.42%
0.52%
CAD
-0.29%
1.17%
0.21%
0.15%
0.58%
0.59%
0.54%
AUD
-0.89%
0.56%
-0.40%
-0.41%
-0.58%
-0.02%
-0.07%
NZD
-0.88%
0.58%
-0.38%
-0.42%
-0.59%
0.02%
-0.05%
CHF
-0.83%
0.63%
-0.33%
-0.52%
-0.54%
0.07%
0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) started the week on a bullish note and caused GBP/USD to turn south on Monday, as investors’ concerns over an economic downturn in the United States (US) eased after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union (EU).
Early Tuesday, the risk-positive market environment limits the USD’s gains and helps GBP/USD hold its ground. Additionally, investors might be opting to move to the sidelines before deciding whether the USD has more room on the upside. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its two-day meeting later in the day and announce policy decisions on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, the US economic calendar will offer some mid-tier data releases that could trigger a short-lasting market reaction during the American trading hours.
The Conference Board will publish the Consumer Confidence Index for July and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release JOLTS Job Openings data for June. In case these data come in weaker than expected, the USD could struggle to find demand and allow GBP/USD to extend its rebound.
Investors will also pay close attention to fresh developments surrounding the US-China trade negotiations. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will reportedly meet again on Tuesday after having constructive talks on Monday.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 30 after recovering from 25, suggesting that GBP/USD is in a correction phase after turning oversold earlier in the day.
On the upside, 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the first resistance level before 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.3490-1.3500 (100-period SMA, static level). Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3340 (100-day SMA) and 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Linde plc’s stock price (LIN) edged slightly lower in latest intraday trading, with negative signals streaming from the Stochastic and ongoing pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA. However, the stock continues to move alongside a short-term upward correctional trend line, and this dip may help it gather positive momentum that could support a potential recovery and relieve the ongoing downside pressure.
Therefore we expect the stock to rise in upcoming trading, but only if it first breaches the resistance level of $471.95, targeting the pivotal resistance of $487.50.
