Concurrently, gold has formed a bull pennant trend continuation pattern, and it is moving closer to a breakout given the narrowing distance to the apex of the pennant triangle. However, the next bull signal will be on rally above the three-week high from this week at $3,377, and a four-week breakout will trigger above $3,396.
Since the bull pennant is a trend continuation pattern it shows the potential for an upside breakout of the pattern and eventual continuation of the long-term bull trend. Resistance of the pattern is reflected by the top declining trendline and the most recent swing high at $3,451 (B).
Bullish Weekly Higher Highs and Lows
The bullish weekly pattern shows underlying strength in gold, which is supported by the daily bull pennant trend pattern. As expected, volatility contracted during the formation of the pennant consolidation, and more so the past couple of weeks. The only concern is that the bull pennant is almost too perfect and therefore obvious. Sometimes when the chart pattern is very clear it has the risk of doing something to fool market participants before the real move is established. A failure of the bull pattern is likely if gold falls below a recent interim higher swing low at $3,283.
Demand Builds as Consolidation Unfolds
Nevertheless, periods of low volatility can be followed by times of high volatility, or trending. If a breakout above the $3,451 swing high is sustained, the record high in gold will likely be exceeded. Gold would then be heading towards the completion of an ABCD pattern at 3,579, followed by a Fibonacci extension target at $3,603. The higher target would then be $3,668, which is the 127.2% projected ABCD target, combined with an initial target for a larger rising ABCD pattern (not shown) that starts from the April swing low.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Heading into next week, if today’s low is broken then the 20-Day line may fail as well on the way to a test of support around the longer term and more significant 200-Day MA, now at $3.45. Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is declining towards the 200-Day line. So, the potential drop below the 20-Day MA, if it does occur, is lessened the closer the two lines become.
Trendline Shows Resistance
When considering the rising dashed trendline that was previously the lower line of a rising trend channel, the line has indicated an area of resistance for the past four days. The line previously represented dynamic support and now resistance around the line has been confirmed. Despite several attempts to break above the line, there has not been a daily close above it. Since it is acting as resistance following a seven-day advance, a period of consolidation or a deeper pullback could follow.
Weekly Breakout Confirms Above $3.47
A weekly bull breakout triggered this week on a rally above last week’s high of $3.47. Therefore, the week is set to end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low. The breakout will be confirmed on a weekly basis with a closing price today above last week’s high. Once the weekly breakout confirms, natural gas should see at least one higher weekly high and low as a continuation, if not more. It is also interesting to note that this week’s low was within the top third of last week’s price. That by itself is a sign of strength. But confirmation of that weekly breakout will be key the weekly closing price could be below the midpoint of the week’s range. That would be a bearish indication.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.
We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700
Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near $38.00 after hitting a 14-year high earlier this week.
The metal remains supported by an ascending channel on daily and weekly charts.
RSI and ADX on the daily chart are turning higher, signaling a possible return in bullish momentum.
Silver (XAG/USD) is treading water on Friday, with spot prices hovering near $38.25 after marking a fresh 14-year high of $39.13 earlier this week. The metal continues to draw support from a firmly bullish structure, trading within a well-defined ascending channel on both the daily and weekly charts. While momentum has cooled slightly near multi-year highs, the broader technical outlook remains positive, with prices still comfortably positioned above key short-term moving averages.
The 21-day EMA at $37.05 continues to provide dynamic support, while the 50-day EMA near $35.82 offers a solid cushion for any deeper pullbacks.
Although price is consolidating just below the $38.50-$39.00 resistance zone, momentum indicators are beginning to turn higher again. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eased slightly after nearing overbought territory earlier in the week when Silver hit its 14-year high. However, it has started to slope upward again, currently hovering around 66, pointing to a potential revival in buying interest.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily chart is also beginning to pick up, suggesting that trend strength may be strengthening after a brief slowdown. These developments indicate that the recent consolidation may be a healthy pause within the broader uptrend, rather than a signal of exhaustion.
Immediate support is seen around $37.00 round number, aligning with the 21-day EMA and marking a key line in the sand for bulls. A break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback, exposing the next support at $35.50, followed by a stronger demand zone near $34.50. On the upside, a sustained move above $39.13 would likely attract fresh buying interest, opening the door for a push toward the psychological $40.00 level and potentially higher.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
There are also questions about whether or not Russian gas will ever come back online on the continent. And this may, in the future at least, open up the possibility of higher prices in the off season, if you will, making natural gas extraordinarily supported. That being said, we also have to think about AI and electricity and things like that. So longer term, we may see a little bit of a change in the way the market works at this time of year.
Regardless, and thinking well past all of that, I look at this as a market that you’re still fading rallies in, at least for a couple of months. If we were to break above the previous uptrend line, then we could go looking to the $3.75 level and then possibly $4, which is the top of the overall range. On the downside, the $3.20 level is a potential target. After that, we could look at the $3 level. We’re essentially in the middle of the range, but it does look like we’re getting a bit tired, so I think more downward than upward pressure is present.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.
We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700
The EURJPY pair kept its stability above the breached bullish channel’s resistance, which forms an extra support at 172.10, forming a new bullish rally and its fluctuation near 173.00 level.
Note that monitoring the price behavior after achieving the target at 173.40, due to the continuation of stochastic contradiction by its fluctuations below 80 level, and surpassing this level is important to reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack and reaching new positive stations that might extend to 173.85 and 174.40, while activating the bearish correctional track requires a sharp decline to settle below 172.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 172.10 and 173.85.
The British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to break above the 200 Yen level.
This obviously is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore people will be paying close attention to it.
If we were to break above the ¥200 level, then it opens up the possibility of a bigger move, with the market looking to get too much higher levels.
On the downside, I see the ¥198 level as the bottom of this consolidation area, so what I want to see is this market stay above the crucial ¥190 level, which is a pretty significant area going back multiple days. If we were to break down below there, then I think you might have a bigger problem. If we can break below there, then it’s very possible that we could drop all the way down to the ¥196 region.
Risk appetite
Keep in mind that the pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite overall, as the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, while the British pound is considered to be a little bit “riskier”, although that doesn’t necessarily mean that the United Kingdom is a place where I’d be worried about putting my money. It just seems to be the overall attitude of this pair.
With that being said, I think that you need to pay close attention to what is going on here, but I would point out that risk appetite has been pretty good on Thursday, so we need just a bit more positive attitude out there I think to send this market to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy but given enough time I do think that we below passed the ¥200 level and continue to go higher.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.
We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700
Despite the weakness of copper price trading, its success in holding above support level at $5.3200 reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish rally, by the attempt to provide clear pressures on the barrier at $5.5100.
We recommend waiting to breach the current barrier to open the way towards achieving several gains, which might begin at $5.6700 and $5.9700, while the decline below the support will cancel the bullish suggestion in the near trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.4200 and $5.6700
