Natural gas price provided mixed trading due to the contradiction between the main indicators, but its main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, by the continuation of forming extra support at $3.830 level, these factors support confirming the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.
Therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering bullish momentum in the current period, reinforcing the chances of its rally towards the positive stations that are located near $4.210 reaching $4.330 resistance, while reaching below the extra support and holding below it might force it to provide strong corrective trading, forcing it to suffer big losses by reaching $3.550 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.850 and $4.215
The GBP/USD forecast recovered briefly as the dollar weakened.
The latest UK retail sales and flash S&P Global PMI boosted the pound, reducing the probability of a rate cut by the BoE.
Traders look ahead to the US HPI Y/Y and Consumer Confidence for further impetus.
The GBP/USD price halted its six-day losing streak, trading above 1.3350 as the dollar weakened on Tuesday. The dollar declined after traders speculated about a 25 basis point cut at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The US softer-than-expected inflation data released last Friday reinforced the Fed to start easing its cycle. The Fed is expected to lower the funds rates from 3.75% – 4.00% with another cut expected in December.
The latest stronger-than-expected UK retail sales and flash S&P Global PMI data lifted the pound sterling in the UK. This suggested progressing business activity and steady consumer spending. Earlier, the softer-than-expected UK CPI hinted at a potential rate cut by the Bank of England. However, these key releases have minimized the expectations of further easing by the BoE.
Traders anticipate the BoE’s 6th November meeting for further confirmation. Meanwhile, policymakers could follow the same interest rates until they achieve further clarity about the fiscal outlook. However,further clarifyeclining growth will likely put the pound under pressure.
GBP/USD Daily Key Events
The major events in the day include
US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPIsignificantUS HPI M/M
US Richmond Manufacturing Index
US CB Consumer Confidence
On Tuesday, traders look forward to the US HPI Y/Y and US HPI M/M, Richmond Manufacturing Index, and CB Consumer Confidence to gain insights into inflation, growth, and consumer sentiment.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Rebound Eying 1.3400
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD 4-hour chart indicates the pair shows signs of recovery, trading above the 1.3350 level. However, the price stays below the key 200-period MA near 1.3460, signaling a broader bearish bias.
The pair’s rebound from the 1.3330 support zone signals short upside momentum. However, the resistance zones near the 50- and 100-period MA around the 1.3360 and 1.3380 levels limits further uptrend.
The RSI at 54 shows a growing buy limit interest as the pair remains below the overbought region. This signals modest upside potential, which could improve if the pair gains some bullish strength.
A decisive break above the 1.3380 a3400 levels could trigger an upside towards the next resistance zone. In contrast, a failure to sustain above the short-term MAs could lead to a renewed downtrend.
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
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The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels previously, to gather the gains of its previous rises, attempting to gain bullish momentum that might help it to recover and rise again, amid the dominance of the bullish corrective trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside trendline that reinforces the stability of this track, especially with the relative strength indicates reaching exaggerated oversold levels compared to the price move, as a signal for the negative pressure decline.
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The EURJPY pair faced difficulty resuming the bullish attack, to form extra barrier at 178.00 level, forcing it to activate the bearish corrective track by reaching 177.25.
Note that suffering extra bearish pressure might force it to break 177.05 level, to confirm its readiness to provide extra corrective trading, to target 176.35 and 175.65 level, while the price success by breaching 178.00 level and holding above it will reinforce the chances of recording extra gains, to expect targeting 178.65 and 179.30 level initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.65 and 178.00
Gold is revering a part of the previous decline, challenging the $4,000 mark as safe-haven flows return heading into the two-day US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
Markets seem to have turned risk-averse, biding time before the Fed policy announcements on Wednesday. Further, nervousness sets in as key US tech titans are due to release their earnings reports later this week.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is languishing in weekly lows against its six major currency rivals, as traders look to reposition amid the US-China trade deal optimism and ahead of the Fed event risk.
These factors offer fresh support to Gold, helping the bright metal stage a comeback after having fallen for two trading days in a row.
Gold tumbled over 3% on Monday, as markets ignored the traditional safe haven in search of higher returns on renewed hopes that the US and China will reach a trade deal when US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet on Thursday in South Korea.
All eyes are now on the Fed’s monetary policy verdict and the daily technical setup for fresh trading impetus, as the US government shows no signs of reopening.
Markets are almost fully pricing in two interest rate cuts this year, with a 25 basis points (bps) cut seen on Wednesday. Therefore, the main focus will be on the language in the policy statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s words for fresh hints on the central bank’s path forward on rates.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily shows that Gold price defends the critical support at $3,973, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the parabolic rise that kicked off in mid-August.
So long as the abovementioned level is held, Gold buyers will likely remain hopeful.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with the midline, struggling to find acceptance above it.
If the 50 level is reclaimed on a sustained basis, Gold’s rebound could gather traction toward the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,061.
Recapturing the latter is critical to stretch the recovery to near the $4,100 hurdle, where a bunch of healthy resistance levels align.
Additional upside will challenge the $4,150 psychological barrier.
Conversely, a daily candlestick closing below the 38.2% Fibo support at $3,973 will initiate a fresh downtrend toward the 50% Fibo level of $3,847.
Further south, the upward-sloping 50-day SMA at $3,784 could rescue buyers.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate slipped at the start of the week as renewed US-China trade optimism drove risk-on sentiment and boosted the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.
Latest — Exchange Rates: Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 2.03447 (-0.23%) Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.33393 (+0.13%) Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.65567 (+0.36%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week on the offensive, climbing against most major peers as traders welcomed renewed signs of progress in US-China trade negotiations.
Reports that Washington and Beijing had agreed on a preliminary ‘framework’ deal ahead of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping lifted market confidence, sending risk assets higher.
Given the Aussie’s close trade ties with China and its reputation as a proxy for global risk appetite, the news fuelled strong demand for the currency — seeing the AUD rally sharply through Monday’s European session.
The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, held largely steady ahead of upcoming UK data releases.
Traders looked to the afternoon’s CBI distributive trades survey for direction, which was expected to show another decline in retail sales activity for October, reflecting softer domestic demand.
However, with no major developments in sight, Sterling’s moves were modest and largely reactive to broader shifts in risk sentiment.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: All Eyes on Australian Inflation Data
Looking ahead, the next key driver for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate will be Wednesday’s Australian CPI report.
Economists expect inflation to edge higher across key measures, which could bolster AUD if the data reduces the likelihood of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts.
Until then, GBP/AUD movement on Tuesday is likely to be shaped by global market tone.
If optimism surrounding trade relations persists, the Aussie may extend gains. Conversely, any cooling in sentiment could see Sterling claw back some ground.
The (Brent) price settled high during its last intraday trading, attempting to breach the current resistance level at $65.55, this resistance represents our expected target in our previous analysis, taking advantage of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of strong bullish corrective wave on the short-term basis, noticing that the relative strength indicators have reached exaggerated oversold levels compared to the price move, providing big chance for forming positive divergence, intensifying the positive momentum in its upcoming trading.
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The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate firmed at the start of the week as softer US inflation data fuelled expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and lifted risk sentiment.
Latest — Exchange Rates: Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.33393 (+0.13%) Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16512 (+0.17%) Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): 152.7575 (-0.21%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) lost traction on Monday as markets digested the implications of last Friday’s softer US CPI report.
Headline inflation eased more than expected, reinforcing the view that price pressures are cooling and boosting market confidence that the Federal Reserve could cut rates by up to 50 basis points before year-end.
This dovish shift in expectations weighed on USD across the board, with the currency also pressured by a broad risk-on tone after reports of progress in US-China trade talks.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded in tight ranges, with little domestic data to provide direction.
Traders focused on the afternoon’s CBI distributive trades survey, expected to show another dip in retail sales activity — potentially signalling softer consumer demand.
Overall, Sterling’s performance on Monday reflected its rising sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite rather than homegrown fundamentals.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Decision Looms Large
All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Markets widely expect a 25bps rate cut, though speculation has grown over a larger 50bps move following last week’s inflation data.
If the Fed delivers a bigger cut or signals further easing ahead, the Dollar could slide sharply.
Conversely, a cautious tone or smaller-than-expected move might prompt a USD rebound.
With the UK data calendar quiet, GBP/USD direction will hinge primarily on the Fed’s decision and the accompanying guidance.
Continued risk-on sentiment would also favour the Pound, while any souring in global mood could see Sterling retrace gains.
The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is trading near ¥152.86, down 0.14% on the day after touching resistance around 153.27 last week.
Rabobank says the week ahead could be pivotal for the yen, with markets watching both the Bank of Japan’s October 30 policy meeting and Prime Minister Takaichi’s first in-person meeting with US President Trump.
“The market’s implied path for policy now suggests only 20 bps of tightening over three months,” Rabobank noted, “reflecting a loss of confidence in the BoJ’s ability to deliver another 25-bps hike before year-end.”
The bank highlighted that the yen has been the worst-performing G10 currency so far this month, losing over 3% against the US dollar.
“We see scope for the JPY to recover some ground versus the USD on the assumption that BoJ rates can be raised again by the turn of the year,” the bank said.
“This in turn assumes that Governor Ueda underscores the BoJ’s hawkish bias at this week’s policy meeting.”
Rabobank forecasts USD/JPY at 147 on a three-month view, adding that “recent highs around 153.27 are likely to provide resistance,” and that it would favour selling rallies ahead of the BoJ decision.
On the political front, the bank said Takaichi’s meeting with Trump “will be an early test of her ability to maintain Japan’s alliance with Washington” and that she is unlikely to advocate a weaker yen policy given the sensitivity of imported inflation.
The recent $2.89 swing low (C) successfully tested the lower rising trend channel line, forming a higher swing low and setting up a potential new upswing. The 20-day average proved its strength as dynamic support today, with the rapid recovery from $3.26 showing clear buyer commitment. This level will serve as a critical anchor if resistance begins to crack, especially given its alignment with the channel’s structure.
Resistance Zone in Focus
The $3.46-$3.59 zone, anchored by the 200-day average and early-October’s $3.59 swing high, includes last week’s $3.57 peak, a $3.55 high from three weeks ago, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.55. Breaking this range is essential for higher targets, with $3.59 acting as the key breakout trigger. The market’s repeated tests highlight its significance.
Upside Targets and Patterns
A rising ABCD pattern targets $3.71, matching the prior AB leg’s advance. A $3.59 breakout would exceed the 61.8% retracement, easing the path to $3.71 and potentially the 78.6% retracement. A close above $3.40 today locks in the bullish reversal, putting $3.59 squarely in play and signaling stronger demand.
Outlook and Key Levels
The $3.40 close is decisive—above it confirms strength and eyes $3.59, below it risks a retest of $3.26. The $3.46-$3.59 zone remains the battleground; a decisive break fuels $3.71 and a path toward $4.15 on a June high reclaim. Today’s action leans bullish—watch $3.59 for confirmation of the next leg higher. The 20-day average at $3.27 will be the first line of defense on any pullback.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
