I wrote on 6^th July that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair. This ended the week lower by 0.70%.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index. This ended the week higher by 0.12%.
3. Long of the S&P 500 Index. This ended the week higher by 0.11%.
4. Long of Silver in USD terms following a daily (New York) close above $37.13. This did not set up until the end of the week.
5. Long of DLTR following a daily (New York) close above $109. This did not set up until the end of the week.

The overall loss of 0.47% equals a loss of 0.09% per asset.

The news last week was dominated by continuing speculation as to the amounts of President Trump’s new tariffs which would be imposed on various countries, after the hard deadline was pushed back to August. President Trump announced the following last week on tariffs:

1. A 50% tariff on all copper imports – this sent copper futures soaring to new record highs, which will have been of interest to trend and momentum traders.
2. A 50% tariff on Brazilian imports – this has been exacerbated by Brazil’s strong positions within BRICs and against key aspects of American foreign policy.
3. An additional 10% tariff on all nations deemed to align with BRICs.

These measures likely gave a boost to the US Dollar, which had an uncharacteristic strong week last week, and hit the Brazilian Real. However, overall, these items were unable to stop the two major US equity indices, the broad S&P 500 Index and the tech-focused NASDAQ 100 Index, from reaching new record highs, albeit on slowing momentum.

Other market drivers last week related to certain high-impact data releases:

1. RBA Cash Rate & Rate Statement – the RBA was expected to cut rates by 0.25%, but surprisingly left its Cash Rate unchanged, saying that the time was not quite right to cut due to inflation. This leads markets to strongly expect a rate cut in August, but it was a hawkish tilt and resulted in the Aussie being the best performer of the major currencies last week.
2. RBNZ Official Cash Rate & Rate Statement – the RBNZ was expected to hold rates and did.
3. UK GDP – was expected to show a tick higher, but instead there was a tick lower, generating more pessimism about the current state of the UK economy.
4. US Unemployment Claims – this was very slightly better than expected.
5. Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was expected to rise slightly to 7.1% but instead it fell to 6.9%. Note how much higher than Canadian unemployment rate is compared to the US rate.

Over the weekend, President Trump decreed that Mexico and the European Union will face 30% tariffs on their exports to the USA, effective 1^st August. This will likely see stock markets open lower this week, and will probably boost the Dollar while sinking the Euro and the Mexican Peso.

The coming week has a relatively light program of high-impact data releases, but the CPI (inflation) releases will be important, especially the US data, which has become established as a central driver of the USD and therefore the entire Forex market.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US CPI (inflation)
2. US PPI
3. US Retail Sales
4. UK CPI (inflation)
5. Canadian CPI (inflation)
6. US Unemployment Claims
7. Australian Unemployment Rate

For the month of July 2025, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair will increase in value. The performance of this forecast so far is:

July 2025 Monthly Forecast Performance to Date

As there was an unusually large upwards price movement in the AUD/JPY Forex currency cross last week, I forecast that it will fall in value over the coming week.

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest. Volatility increased strongly last week, with 41% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. Next week’s volatility is likely to remain the same or possibly increase.

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Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a strong up candlestick which engulfed the real body of the previous week’s candlestick and closed near the top of its weekly range. These are bullish signs, but there are two bearish signs which are probably stronger:

1. There is clearly a strong and continuing long-term bearish trend in the US Dollar.
2. The high of last week’s range remained below the key resistance level I have drawn in the price chart below.

Markets are still expecting the Fed to make three more rate cuts this year, despite the Fed’s slightly hawkish recent rhetoric, and this is likely to send the Dollar to new long-term low prices once the tariff talk dies away and reaches a natural conclusion.

The NASDAQ 100 Index barely changed last week, despite briefly trading at a new all-time high price. The weekly candlestick was a small indecisive doji, which tends to signify indecision, while the small range is also bearish as it signifies declining momentum.

Although there are good arguments for trend traders to remain long here, I think we are seeing signs of a bearish retracement which is about to happen, probably linked to new tariffs President Trump has just announced will be imposed on the European Union and Mexico – there are likely to be more over this coming week, too.

I do not like trading US stock indices short, but a long trade could be possible here if we get a daily close above the current record high at 22,945.

The S&P 500 Index performed very similarly to the NASDAQ 100 Index last week. Everything I wrote above about that tech index also applies here to the S&P 500 Index. The only point I must add is that this broader Index will likely be harder hit by new tariffs than the NASDAQ 100 Index. However, if the Index goes on to make another record New York close high, I will enter a new long trade.

The EUR/USD currency pair printed a down candlestick last week which looks very like the US Dollar Index weekly candlestick.

There is a long-term bullish trend in this currency pair, which has historically trended very reliably.

However, the US just announced over the weekend that it will be imposing a new 30% tariff on all imports from the European Union, and this is likely to send prices lower over the coming week, at least over the first part of the week.

I would not want to enter a new trade except in the unlikely event that we see a daily (New York) close above $1.1806.

The AUD/JPY currency cross printed a strongly bullish candlestick with unusually large range and real body. This cross was the top performer in the Forex market last week, with the Aussie getting a boost from rising stock markets and from the Reserve Bank of Australia passing on a widely expected rate cut last week. The Japanese Yen is weak as markets still don’t see the Bank of Japan as ready to begin a serious course of rate hikes.

As the price looks somewhat over extended, and in honour of “buy the rumour, sell the fact” following the RBA’s passing on a rate cut, I think we are most likely to see the price fall here over the coming week, so a short trade with a small position size could be useful.

Another bearish factor is that the price ended the week sitting right on a resistance level which it was unable to break.

The USD/MXN currency pair printed a small rising candlestick but with a large upper wick. It is truly more of a bearish than bullish candlestick. The fact that the low of the week’s range was basically confluent with the key support level shown in the price chart below at $15.5776 suggests that all we have seen here is a little temporary support, which will soon break down to a new 10-month low price.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that a new 30% tariff will apply to all imports from Mexico into the USA. This is bound to send the Mexican Peso lower and help bring the US Dollar higher. Therefore, I think a short trade here could be a good idea.

I will wait for a daily (New York) close below $15.5776 before entering a new short trade here.

Silver in US Dollar terms was holding up better than Gold, and despite making a bearish retracement the price remained within touching distance of the high. This kept my faith in the long-term bullish trend and allowed me to hold on to my long position in Silver.

My fair was rewarded at the end of last week when the price made a very strong bullish breakout, reaching as high as $38.50 per ounce, which was the highest price seen in over 13 years, so we really do have the price flying in blue sky right now.

Another bullish sign was that the price ended the week close to the high at $38.50. The price chart below shows this trend is extremely well established and has run since the start of 2023.

Palladium is one of the rarer precious metals. It has been rising on high volatility but exponentially, and along with Silver it rose very strongly last Friday to break to a new long-term high price.

Palladium futures are expensive for most retail investors, and the metal is not offered by many CFD brokers. However, an affordable physical ETF is available as PALL, and I will be looking to enter a trend trade long here when the market opens on Monday.

Copper had seen a broadly rising price for some time which qualified as a bullish trend, but it was President Trump’s declaration last week that all imports of Copper into the USA would be subject to a 50% tariff that send the price shooting into the stratosphere. These high prices in Copper have never been seen before – they are all-time highs, which is rare to see in a commodity.

The remaining question is how much more momentum can this news bring us on the long side. The tariff will boost the price, but by how much more?

As a trend trader, I already entered a long position here. Friday saw a bearish retracement, so a careful course of action might be entering a new long trade following a new all-time high New York closing price above $5.6855.

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily close above $1.1806.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily close above 22,945.
3. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 6,283.6.
4. Long of HG Copper futures following a daily close above $5.6855.
5. Long of Silver in USD terms.
6. Long of Palladium in USD terms.
7. Short of the AUD/JPY currency cross.

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The US dollar is trying to carve a local bottom following a dismal end to June. Meanwhile, gold is struggling at its 2025 trend line, which could spell trouble for the metal.

Check out today’s Weekly Forex Forecast for the latest on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY is rebounding today following the release of impressive US employment numbers. Thursday’s non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.1%.

Technically speaking, Thursday’s rally in the US dollar was not a surprise. Pairs like USDCHF were showing bullish formations on Wednesday, and EURUSD was testing channel resistance from May.

However, the DXY has a significant challenge ahead. The June candle closed below 97.70, making it a substantial confluence of resistance in July.

Additionally, dollar bulls need to reclaim areas like 97.00 and 97.40, which it tested on Thursday. But the much bigger test for the DXY is 97.70, which is the bottom of the ascending channel from 2011.

July will be interesting for the DXY. On the one hand, the US dollar remains in its 2025 downtrend and trades below key areas like 97.70. On the other hand, a break below an area as significant as 97.70 is precisely what it would take to carve out a bottom.

That doesn’t mean it will happen, but I’m not going to rule it out. Regardless of what we get, the chart will have the final say.

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD is pulling back today after the US employment report beat expectations. In the last video, I discussed the potential for a pullback from the euro in early July.

The pair was testing the top of its May channel earlier this week, and the DXY was carving a rounded bottom. So far, we haven’t seen much of a pullback from EURUSD, given how the US dollar gets walked back at each sign of strength.

Currently, EURUSD is finding resistance at 1.1788. The pair also closed a recent 4-hour candle below 1.1745; however, time will tell if this is a meaningful development or not.

My comments about where the euro might trend earlier this week are unchanged. Bulls will be eyeing levels like 1.1685, but especially areas like 1.1630 if we get it.

That could align with the DXY testing the 97.70 region. If so, it will mark a significant test for the forex market in July.

GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD is testing a highly significant area this week at 1.3630. The pair bounced from here on Thursday, but it quickly faded following the strong US jobs numbers.

However, buyers are doing their best to defend 1.3630 on the high time frames. GBPUSD remains above it for now on both the daily and weekly charts.

If the DXY can reclaim levels like 97.10, it could push GBPUSD below the key level. If so, 1.3430 could be next for the pound.

That said, as long as GBPUSD trades above 1.3630, the level remains key support.

USDCHF Forecast

USDCHF is the pair that was showing bullish signs before Thursday’s NFP. The pair had reclaimed the bottom of its May channel on an hourly basis before the jobs numbers were released.

Of course, attempting a trade ahead of non-farm payroll is always ill-advised. Even if you get the direction right, the volatility and slippage can cause premature stopouts.

Thursday’s bullish reclaim of channel support could trigger a retest of 0.8040. That would be a significant moment for USDCHF, given how it’s the recent range lows, and June also closed below the level.

0.7940 is key support for USDCHF, with resistance at 0.8040. What occurs at 0.8040 could determine the next few weeks for USDCHF.

Keep the DXY and its 97.70 level on your radar as you trade the major currency pairs.

XAUUSD Forecast

Gold is an interesting chart because you have a battle between two high time frames. On one hand, XAUUSD closed below its 2025 trend line at the end of June. On the other hand, gold reclaimed it on the daily time frame last week.

However, we’re seeing sellers step in following the robust US jobs numbers. This is simply gold making good on the weekly breakdown in June.

A weekly break always carries more weight than a daily break. There’s more volume in a weekly candle, and volume equals conviction when trading technical breaks.

As long as gold is below $3,340 on a weekly closing basis, I’ll be eyeing lower levels. First is key support at $3,265, followed by $3,207.

Thursday’s selloff left a buy-side single print at $3,341. That could serve as resistance if XAUUSD holds below the $3,340 region into Thursday’s close.

July 13, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EURUSD Looks “Overbought and Overvalued”

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) recovered from lows at 1.1665 on Friday, but was held just below the 1.1700 level as narrow ranges prevailed.

The dollar held firm in global markets while there were no major Euro developments.

Credit Agricole commented; “EUR/USD continues to look overbought and overvalued (according to our fair value and FX positioning models) could make it vulnerable to further correction lower in the near term.”

ING expects narrow ranges may continue to prevail for now; “while near-term risks look more balanced, if anything slightly skewed to the downside, the lack of fresh data suggests the pair may remain anchored around 1.17 for now.”

UoB commented; “Although there is still no significant increase in momentum, only a breach of 1.1755 (‘strong resistance level previously at 1.1780) would indicate that the current downward risk has faded.”

It added; “Until then, if EUR were to close below 1.1660, it could potentially trigger a move to 1.1625.”

Scotiabank added; “We continue to highlight the importance of medium-term support at the 50 day MA (1.1466). We see the near-term range bound between 1.1650 support and 1.1750 resistance.”

Overnight, President Trump announced that he would impose 35% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US from August 1st.

Equities have moved lower, but the dollar has been resilient.

Scotiabank commented; “Investors may consider these threats to be largely negotiating tactics at this point.”

Commerzbank FX analyst Volkmar Baur outlined two potential scenarios. The first is that tariff announcements and trade deals trickle out.

An alternative scenario is that markets assume that Trump will back off and are then shocked when big tariff increases go into effect.

According to Baur “It makes a difference for the market. If the latter is the case, there could be considerable volatility on 1 August if Trump does not back down this time and the tariffs actually come into force. In the former case, we would probably have to wait for a significant deterioration in fundamental data before the market reacts.

He added; “I would expect a weaker US dollar in both situations. However, while things could move quite quickly at the beginning of August if there is no taco, the salami argument would suggest a gradual devaluation as soon as the fundamentals deteriorate.”

MUFG also pointed to the importance of US fundamentals; “With the US economy showing resilience and the labour market still holding up, we may start to see the dollar benefitting again from yields. Our G10 FX regression models indicate scope for the US dollar to recover further. Our EUR/USD model implies a 8% over-valuation that when we back test indicates a 65% probability of a retracement lower over a 4-week period.”

RBC differentiates between the near term and longer-term trend; “In the short term, there are factors that could limit immediate USD weakness, even within the broader theme of depreciation remaining intact.”

HSBC commented on the medium-term outlook; “for EUR-USD to sustain its rally beyond our 1.20 target, we think it needs four EUR-centric factors to work in its favour. These are an acceleration in private sector credit, positive and rising real wage growth, a recovery in the inventory cycle, and policy intervention by the ECB and EU.”

It added; “For now, these elements may not be sufficiently compelling to push the EUR higher from lofty levels.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts

• The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates weaker growth in the UK.

• Treasury yields soared after Trump announced higher tariffs on several countries.

• Next week, the US will release crucial inflation and retail sales figures.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates weaker growth in the UK, which has pushed up BoE rate cut expectations.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar gained with US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the pound dropped after downbeat UK GDP figures. 

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Treasury yields soared after Trump announced higher tariffs on several countries, including Canada, Brazil, and Japan. If these tariffs take effect, they will hike import prices and drive inflation higher. This would force the Fed to maintain high borrowing costs. 

Elsewhere, data on Friday revealed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% compared to the forecast of a 0.1% expansion. The report increased pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD 

Next week, the US will release crucial inflation and retail sales figures. Meanwhile, the UK will release inflation and employment numbers. The US inflation figures will show whether Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures. If so, the Fed might remain cautious about rate cuts. However, if inflation is softer than expected, it will solidify rate cut expectations. 

On the other hand, the UK inflation numbers will shape the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts. Traders will also watch to see the state of the UK labor market. 

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears break below SMA after RSI divergence

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 22-SMA after showing weakness in the rally. The break indicates a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has crossed below 50, showing that bearish momentum is stronger.

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Previously, the price was trading in a solid bullish rally, making higher highs and lows. However, the price started puncturing the SMA, a sign that bears were gradually getting stronger. At the same time, while the price made higher highs, the RSI made lower ones. This resulted in a bearish divergence, signalling weaker momentum. 

Consequently, bears made a strong break below the SMA. However, to confirm a new trend, the price must maintain its position below the 22-SMA. Additionally, it must start making lower highs and lows. That means breaking below the 1.3400 support. 

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• GBP/JPY strengthens to around 197.95 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The cross maintains a constructive view above the 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator.  
• The immediate resistance level is seen at 198.81; the initial support level is located at 194.34.

The GBP/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 197.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) preference to move cautiously in normalizing still-easy monetary policy forces traders to push back their bets about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike to Q1 2026. 

Technically, GBP/JPY keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The path of least resistance is to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 64.50. This suggests bullish momentum in the near term. 

The first upside target to watch for the cross is seen at 198.81, the high of July 25, 2024. Extended gains could see a rally to the 200 psychological level. Further north, the next hurdle is located at 203.62, the high of July 22, 2024. 

On the other hand, the initial support level for GBP/JPY emerges at 194.34, the low of June 18. A breach of this level could expose the key contention level in the 193.30-193.20 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional downside filter to watch is 191.90, the low of May 22. 

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

The GBPJPY pair began forming bullish wave achieving 199.45 level, but the contradiction of the main indicators and forming an extra barrier might reduce the chances of resuming the bullish attack in the current period.

The stability of the price below the extra barrier, we will begin preferring the bearish correctional trading, which might target 198.20 level reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level near 197.45, forming an important support against the upcoming trading, while its success to breach the barrier and holding above it will increase the chances for achieving extra gains that might begin at 200.35 reaching 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.20 and 199.45

Trend forecast: Bearish