Earlier this week, gold spiked to a record high of $4181.21 but failed to build on that momentum. The rejection at $4192.86 has capped upside, while today’s action below $4100.43 signals weakening near-term sentiment. A decisive break under this week’s swing bottom at $4004.28 would confirm a bearish shift and open the door to deeper support near $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3756.19.

Momentum could quickly shift higher on a sustained break above $4192.86, but until then, price action favors sellers. Notably, there’s no meaningful resistance between $4192.86 and the all-time high at $4381.44, making that level a breakout trigger if bulls regain control.

Profit-Taking, Trade Easing Weigh on Gold Market

Gold’s rally has been fueled by Fed cut bets, central bank demand, and geopolitical tension. But this week’s move lower suggests a round of profit-taking. Traders who bought the breakout above $4000 are locking in gains as headlines show easing U.S.–China trade tensions. News that President Trump will meet President Xi next week has removed some near-term tail risk.

Stronger Dollar and Yields Add to Pressure

The U.S. dollar index is up 0.6% for the week, adding pressure to gold by increasing its cost for foreign buyers. Treasury yields are also firming ahead of today’s CPI report, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.012%. Higher yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like bullion, especially in the short term.

All Eyes on U.S. Inflation and Fed Policy

The September CPI report, due at 1230 GMT, is expected to show a 0.4% rise in headline inflation and a 0.3% core print. A hot reading could dampen rate cut expectations, weighing further on gold. Still, markets are pricing in a near 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, keeping longer-term support intact.

Gold Price Forecast: Bears in Control Below $4100.43

The near-term outlook is bearish while gold remains under $4100.43, with further downside risk if $4004.28 breaks. Bulls need a strong close above $4192.86 to regain momentum. Until then, the value zone between $3846.50 and $3756.19 remains the most attractive area for new long positioning.

The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last intraday trading, testing a main bearish trendline on the short-term basis, accompanied by reaching the resistance of its EMA50, which intensifies the negative pressure, accompanied by the emergence of negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after forming negative divergence, after reaching exaggerated overbought levels compared to the price move.

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Platinum price attempted to settle above $1605.00 level, to notice recording some gains by hitting $1665.00 level, providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $1620.00.

Confirming that holding above $1605.00 level is important, which forms an important extra support to reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum, then attack the next barrier near $1695.00, while breaking the current support will force the price to provide new corrective trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $1565.00 and $1525.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1600.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Coffee price formed the inverted head and shoulders pattern in its last trading, and 424.20 level forms the main neckline as appears in the above image, noticing the attempt to surpass the neckline at 437.40 in yesterday trading, to bounce quickly towards 410.00.

The price needs new positive momentum that allows it to settle above extra support towards 393.25, then wait for breaching 424.20 level, to confirm activating the bullish pattern, to target 457.50 and 486.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 400.50 and 457.50

Trend forecast: Bullish

December arabica coffee (KCZ25) today is up +0.75 (+0.20%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) is down -134 (-3.18%).

Coffee prices are mixed today, with robusta sharply lower at a 6-week low.   Tight ICE coffee inventories are supporting coffee prices.  However, robusta retreated today as the remnants of Typhoon Ragasa are forecast to miss the coffee-growing regions of Vietnam, easing concerns that heavy wind and rain could damage the country’s coffee crops.

The 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil have led to a sharp drawdown in ICE coffee inventories, a bullish factor for coffee prices.  ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 17.5-month low of 601,717 bags on Wednesday.  ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1.75-month low of 6,464 lots last Friday.  American buyers are voiding new contracts for purchases of Brazilian coffee beans due to the 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

On Tuesday, arabica coffee prices fell to a 1-month low as rain in Brazil eased dry conditions.  Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia stated that rainfall in Minas Gerais will persist for the remainder of the week.

A bumper robusta coffee crop in Vietnam is bearish for prices.  Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high.  Also, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported September 8 that Vietnam’s Jan-Aug 2025 coffee exports were up +7.8% y/y to 1.141 MMT.  Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Last Tuesday, Dec arabica coffee posted a contract high and nearest-futures (U25) arabica posted a 7-month high, while robusta climbed to a 3-week high.  Coffee prices rose due to a lack of rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions ahead of the critical flowering period for coffee trees.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.5 mm of rain during the week ended September 20, only 73% of the historical average.  The month of September is the critical flowering period for Brazil’s coffee trees.

Coffee prices also garnered support last Tuesday after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased the likelihood of a La Niña weather system in the southern hemisphere from October to December to 71%, which could bring excessive dry weather to Brazil and harm the 2026/27 coffee crop.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee.

Coffee prices found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags.  Conab also reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.

In a bullish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on September 3 that global July coffee exports declined -1.6% year-over-year (y/y) to 11.6 million bags, and cumulative October-July coffee exports declined -0.3% y/y to 115.615 million bags.

Reduced exports from Brazil are supporting prices.  On August 6, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT.  In related bullish news, exporter group Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags.  Cecafe reported that July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y.  Cecafe said Brazil’s July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices after Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that the harvest among its members was 98.9% complete as of September 12.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group.  

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.  However, Volcafe is projecting a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
 

On the date of publication,

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