Created on October 22, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1810.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EURUSD from the support level of 1.1520, target 1.1800, and stop 1.1460.
• Sell the EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Investor appetite for the US Dollar as a safe haven has recently increased amid rising US-China tensions. This has led to selling pressure on the EUR/USD pair, extending losses to the 1.1600 support level today, Wednesday, October 22, 2025. With a complete absence of important US economic releases today, investors will continue to monitor for signals regarding the future policies of central banks. Today, ECB Governor Lagarde will deliver new statements at 15:30 Cairo time.

Movement of Technical Indicators Confirms EUR/USD Bias

Based on the daily chart performance and through reliable brokerage platforms, the EUR/USD price bias is currently steadily bearish. Breaking the 1.1600 support level will increase the technical losses for the currency pair. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around a reading of 43, which confirms the bearish shift, and it still has room for further decline before reaching the oversold zone. Similarly, the MACD indicator is firmly in the downward-sloping area. A break below the 1.1600 support will increase the likelihood of targeting the next, more significant support levels at 1.1550 and 1.1470, respectively.

EUR/USD Bullish Scenario

Conversely, over the same timeframe, there is no strong chance of a corrective rebound for the EUR/USD price without a renewed push towards the psychological resistance of 1.1800. Otherwise, the bears will continue to control prices.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD pair will continue to be heavily influenced by investor risk appetite and the future easing of central bank policies.

Factors Influencing EUR/USD Trading in the Coming Days

Forex trading experts pointed to French concerns, as S&P Global Ratings recently downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+ after the market close on Friday, due to persistent worries about its fiscal trajectory. On another note, important economic data will be released later in the week, with the release of the PMI Business Confidence Index and the US Consumer Price Report. At the same time, the US banking sector, the government shutdown, and political rhetoric are all expected to be influential market events.

Recently, a sense of relief has prevailed in the US banking sector, with equity markets making gains. Danske Bank noted that the earnings results of major UK banks were strong. It added: “These earnings have helped stabilize investor confidence and provided some support for the sector overall, even as concerns about smaller regional banks persist.” However, ING Bank maintained a cautious outlook, stating, “Indicators suggesting that lending issues do not extend beyond Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance may help ease pressure on the Dollar, but that may not be enough to fully calm concerns about the health of the credit market and reverse all of the Dollar’s losses.”

On the monetary policy front, financial markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut next week, with more than a 95% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates again at the December meeting. The Federal Reserve is currently in a media blackout period ahead of the meeting, with no official comments expected. Consequently, any unofficial media briefings will be closely monitored in case of sharp movements in equity markets.

On another front, trade tensions between the United States and China will remain a key factor. President Trump’s rhetoric was conciliatory over the weekend, raising hopes for a successful push on China.

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Created on October 22, 2025

• The British Pound has fallen during the early hours here on Tuesday against the US dollar again, but really, at this point in time, we seem to be just hanging around the 1.34 level.
• The 1.34 level is an area that I think is important because it is in the middle of the overall consolidation range that we had been in.
• The 50-day EMA sits just above, and that causes some resistance as well, but what I really find interesting is that we sliced through a major uptrend line, fell to the 200-day EMA about a week ago, bounced from there, and then failed at that previous uptrend line in the 50-day EMA also.

With this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market will probably continue to see a lot of resistance above. And therefore, I do prefer shorting this pair if I have a position.

I Use This as an Indicator

Truthfully, my favorite use for this market is to see how the US dollar is performing because if it’s strengthening here, it’s really going to put a beating on something like the euro, typically. With this, I look at the fact that the British pound has been so strong over the last couple of years in comparison to the euro, the yen, the Canadian dollar, and other currencies, and I use this as a secondary and even tertiary indicator with other trades.

If I had to put a position on would be short here, but I think the 200-day EMA will continue to be a bit stubborn. If we were to break down below the 1.32 level, then I think the bottom falls out, and in that environment, you are more likely than not to see the US dollar strengthening against multiple currencies.

If this market breaks above the 1.35 level, then maybe we go back to the 1.36 level, but that still doesn’t have us breaking out of the range. All things being equal, I think we’re drifting lower.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair confirmed the stability of the bullish scenario by forming a new bullish rally yesterday, achieving the initial target by hitting 203.50 level, to settle above $161.8 Fibonacci extension level at 202.50.

The continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the strength of the bullish track, to expect attacking the barrier at 203.95, and surpassing it will open the way for reaching new stations that might begin from 204.60 and 205.25, while changing the trend and begin the bearish corrective track requires forming sharp decline to settle below the extra support at 201.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 202.60 and 203.95

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Falls after Softer Inflation Boosts BoE Cut Bets

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped further on Wednesday after softer-than-expected UK inflation data increased bets on a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut before year-end.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3328, down approximately 0.28% from the start of the session.

The Pound (GBP) came under pressure after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that consumer price inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, missing forecasts of a rise to 4.0%.

Core CPI fell sharply from 4.6% to 3.5%, while services inflation stabilised at 4.75%, below expectations of 4.8% and 0.3 percentage points under the BoE’s latest projection.

The weaker data indicates that underlying price pressures are cooling faster than policymakers anticipated, particularly as food prices — a key concern for the BoE — unexpectedly declined on the month.

According to ING, the figures delivered a clear dovish signal for the central bank and increased downside risks for the Pound.

As the bank noted: “The September UK inflation reading released this morning is sending a dovish signal to the Bank of England and weighing on the pound. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% (consensus 4.0%), while core slowed down from 4.6% to 3.5% and services CPI stabilised at 4.75% versus expectations of 4.8% and 0.3pp below the BoE’s latest forecast. Our UK economist notes that the main dovish surprise comes from food prices – a big concern for the BoE of late – which actually fell on the month and are now 0.5pp below the BoE’s August forecasts.”

Markets responded by increasing expectations for a BoE rate cut before the end of 2025, driving gilt yields lower and keeping Sterling under pressure across major currency pairs.

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, found modest support during Wednesday’s European session amid cautious market sentiment and lingering global growth concerns.

With the ongoing US government shutdown continuing to delay key data releases, investors turned their attention to upcoming commentary from Federal Reserve officials for policy cues.

Policymakers have broadly maintained a cautious tone, acknowledging softening inflation but insisting that rates must stay restrictive until the 2% target is clearly within reach.

GBP/USD Forecast: Central Bank Commentary to Steer Direction

Looking ahead, movement in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate will likely hinge on upcoming speeches from both Bank of England and Federal Reserve policymakers.

If BoE officials hint that cooling inflation is paving the way for policy easing, GBP could remain under pressure into the weekend.

Conversely, any hawkish signals from Fed speakers may lend the ‘Greenback’ further support, keeping GBP/USD subdued through the second half of the week.

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