• The US dollar has been stable against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, which in and of itself is not necessarily anything markable, except the fact that we have seen the US dollar struggle against so many other currencies.
• Because of this, I suspect that there is a problem with the Japanese yen itself.
• After all, the Japanese yen is parentally weak, as the Bank of Japan is normally very loose with its monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan has a significant issue at the moment, due to the fact that there have been a lack of buyers in the Japanese Government Bond markets. This is a major problem for central banks and will almost always lead to more central bank buying of bonds, or what you probably know as “quantitative easing.” That’s an extreme simplification of what’s going on, but it is a very realistic example. By contrast, we have the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, but that would still leave a major interest rate differential between these 2 currencies and make the dollar attractive against the yen itself.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis at the moment is somewhat flat, as we have been trading in a range for a couple of months. The ¥142 level on the bottom is an area of significant support, while the ¥148 level has been significant resistance. It seems as if the market is very comfortable near the ¥145 level, which is also attracting the 50 Day EMA. As the market has gone into a multi-month consolidation area, this tells me that we could possibly be trying to form some type of bottoming pattern. This could take months though, which would not be unusual for this currency pair.

If we were to break above the ¥148 level, that opens up a move above the 200 Day EMA as well and perhaps should send the USD/JPY pair to the ¥150 level. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the ¥142 level, then I suspect we revisit the ¥140 level relatively quickly.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The euro initially pulled back just a touch in the early hours of Monday, but it looks as if we are ready to continue going higher in what has been a slightly overextended run.
• At the end of the day, we are obviously very bullish of the market at the moment, despite the fact that I can give you a handful of reasons why the US dollar is oversold.

Perhaps we will turn around, but at this point in time you have to assume that there will be a bit of continuation overall, as the trend has clearly been positive for several months. If we do pull back from here, then we could look at a move to the 1.16 level, an area that previously had been a major resistance level. This could bring in a bit of “market memory” into the market, as traders would try to either cover short positions that has been wrong or perhaps try to join in on what had been a massive move higher.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is obviously very bullish, but I also recognize that we have gotten a little ahead of ourselves. After all, the 50 Day EMA is all the way down at the 1.14 level but is rising to perhaps try to meet the rest of the market. On the other hand, if we continue to go higher, we will have to deal with the 1.18 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that would attract a certain amount of attention. Regardless, it does seem as if the euro is hell-bent on going much higher given enough time, so I think most traders will be looking at this through the prism of perhaps trying to find a little bit of value.

Over the longer term, a lot of this will come down to what the Federal Reserve does, and you should keep in mind that the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement comes out on Thursday this week instead of Friday, so it will compress some of the volatility as far as time is concerned. Whether or not that influences this pair remains to be seen, but now market participants have priced in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, driving this pair higher.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price attempted to renew the bullish attempts by its rally to $1377.40, but its neediness to the positive momentum that pushed it to form weak and sideways trading, to settle near $1342.00 approaching from the bullish channel’s support at $1330.00.

The current scenario depends on the strength of the mentioned support, its stability makes us expect forming bullish waves, to confirm its stability above $1366.00 level, to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack and reaching the next target near $1400.00, while breaking the support and holding below it will confirm activating the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching $1303.00 initially followed by $1275.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1382.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• EUR/JPY may rebound toward the 12-month high at 169.86, marked on Monday.
• The 14-day RSI hovers just below 70, indicating the persistent bullish bias.
• The nine-day EMA of 168.77 would act as the primary support.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 169.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern, strengthening the bullish bias.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 70 mark, strengthening the bullish sentiment. However, if the RSI breaks above the 70 mark, the pair would be in an overbought zone and indicate a downward correction soon. Additionally, the short-term price momentum is stronger as the EUR/JPY cross remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the 12-month high at 169.86, which was recorded on June 30. A successful breach above this level would reinforce the market bias and support the currency cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 171.40.

The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of 168.77. Further declines would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 167.00, followed by the 50-day EMA at 165.32.

A break below the 50-day EMA would dampen the medium-term price momentum and prompt the pair to navigate the region around the “throwback resistance” at 161.00

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• • USD/JPY faces pressure as bullish momentum fades.
  • The USD/JPY momentum indicators signal fading trend strength, as the ADX and MACD weaken.
  • Broader US Dollar weakness adds to downside pressure on USD/JPY, pushing prices toward 144.00.

The USD/JPY is struggling to hold key support on Monday as bullish momentum continues to fade, with both the daily and weekly charts indicating weakening trend strength. 

After failing to sustain gains above the 148.00 level last week, the pair has drifted lower, moving back toward rising trendline support near the 144.00 handle.

This trendline currently aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline at 144.37, a zone the pair is now trying to defend. Monday’s price action shows USD/JPY attempting to stabilize above this support area, but momentum indicators suggest the move may lack conviction.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 144.19. With momentum softening across various timeframes, technical signals continue to indicate a range-bound market, increasing the risk of a downside break if support levels fail to hold.

Momentum indicators hint at fading trend strength for USD/JPY

The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily timeframe has dropped to 10.87, indicating an extremely weak trend, even more so than the weekly reading. This further confirms that recent moves are corrective in nature rather than part of a sustained trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart is also flattening out, with histogram bars losing strength and the signal line turning sideways. This suggests a lack of bullish follow-through after last week’s failed breakout near 148.00.

USD/JPY daily chart

The weekly chart below illustrates how longer-term moving averages continue to act as dynamic support and resistance for USD/JPY price action.

Last week, the pair surged after climbing above both the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 147.14. 

A weaker Yen helped fuel the recovery, briefly lifting the pair to retest the psychological 148.00 level.

USD/JPY dips below the 20-week SMA as bullish momentum fades

However, the move stalled as profit-taking and a lack of bullish follow-through triggered a reversal. This is reflected in the weekly candle’s thin upper wick, indicating fading buying interest near 148.00. The pair has since slipped back below the 20-week SMA, which now turns into resistance at 145.92.

Momentum signals are softening. The ADX closed last week pointing lower, indicating weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting any upside seen so far is likely corrective rather than the start of a sustainable uptrend.

USD/JPY weekly chart

Bearish bias persists for USD/JPY below 144.00

Looking to this week, Monday’s price action has pushed the pair toward rising trendline support, which is currently holding above the psychological 144.00 level.

A break below 144.00 could bring the 142.79 area into focus, the third touchpoint of the ascending trendline. Below that, 142.00 stands as another key psychological level, with a deeper move possibly exposing the 140.00 handle.

The April trendline remains a key short-term support structure; however, broader technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. Both the 20 and 50-week SMAs continue to slope downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish bias unless price can reclaim and hold above the 149.00 region.