Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.
By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000
Although today’s price action may be short-term bearish, bull signals generated over the past few days show improving demand and an increased chance that the price of crude oil can continue its rising trend. On Friday, a bullish trend continuation signal was confirmed by a daily close above the swing high at $64.67 (B). That close also confirmed a rising ABCD pattern that shows an initial target at $68.98. At that price the two rising measured moves, labeled AB and CD, will show symmetry as the change in price for the CD leg will match what was seen in the AB advance. A potential key pivot level would therefore be identified.
Confluence Zone Points to $68.79
But what makes that price zone interesting is not just the ABCD pattern target. There are two other price levels identified nearby. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is at $68.79, and the 200-Day MA is now at $68.98. Sometimes, when there is a confluence of indicators pointing to a similar price area, that area can act like a magnet and attract the price towards it. Whether it is eventually reached or not, it does show higher potential.
Double Bottom Potential Reversal
Furthermore, a double bottom trend reversal pattern confirmed on Monday with a rally above $65.32, the swing high from late April. That swing high ended the first rally following the April swing low at $55.23. Since the trend reversal pattern just triggered, there is strong potential for further upside, unless the breakout shows signs of failure. And that would only begin to be seen on a drop below the 20-Day MA, now at $62,73.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The GBP/USD weekly forecast is strongly bullish as the dollar remains broadly weaker amid the Fed’s policy outlook.
The easing of geopolitical worries and contraction of US GDP further weighed on the dollar.
Next week’s employment data and US PMIs are essential to watch.
The British pound soared to its highest level since October 2021 against the US dollar, closing the week with a firm 2% gain above the 1.3700 mark. It was a seventh consecutive daily gain for the pair.
The rally was fueled by broader dollar weakness, easing geopolitical worries in the Middle East, and speculations around the Fed’s policy outlook.
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What Happened to GBP/USD Last Week?
The GBP/USD pair started the week with a bearish gap as investors fled to the safe-haven dollar in the wake of America’s attacks on three nuclear sites of Iran. The fear of further escalation after Iran’s warning weighed on the pound and other riskier assets. However, a swift ceasefire restored the peace, and the US dollar collapsed, lending room to the pound buyers.
The Fed’s policy outlook also contributed to the dollar’s further decline. Markets are now pricing in a 21% probability for a July cut and75% for the September cut, driven by dovish commentary from the Fed’s Bowman and Waller. However, Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone due to Trump’s tariffs, which may reignite inflation. However, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, accompanied by a threat to replace the chairman as soon as September, created chaos, resulting in a further sell-off of the US dollar.
The US economic data also reinforced the dovish narrative. The Q1 GDP showed a contraction of 0.5%, but Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside. On Friday, the Core PCE Index came in at 2.7% y/y, slightly above the estimate, providing a mild bid to the dollar but not enough to offset the broader bearish momentum.
On the UK side, the pound found relative stability due to improved economic sentiment and better business activity.
GBP/USD Key Events Next Week
There is no significant data from the UK next week. However, the markets will be closely watching the US labor market data and the Fed Chair’s speech. The ADP employment is expected to tick up to 105,000 from the previous 37,000 modestly. But the NFP print may continue its decline to 120k from the last 139k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate may also slightly rise to 4.3%.
In addition to these, US Manufacturing/Services PMIs and JOLTs data are also due next week, which may provide impetus to the market.
GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bulls Pause at 1.3700
GBP/USD daily chart
The daily chart for the GBP/USD shows a strong bullish momentum, lying well above the key moving averages. However, the price could not hold onto the weekly highs of 1.3770 and corrected downwards. But the 1.3700 continues to support the upside. Meanwhile, the 20-day SMA is at 1.3555, which is almost 150 pips down from the current price. The overextended rally may see some consolidation and reversion to the 20-day SMA before a bullish continuation.
The daily RSI is still below the overbought territory, which means further gains cannot be ruled out. The pair may test its weekly top at 1.3770 ahead of 1.3800. The ultimate bullish target lies at 1.4000.
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Nonetheless, gold remains above support of a declining trendline and above a prior interim swing low of $3,245, which is part of the price structure of the short-term uptrend. A drop below that level would further confirm bearish price behavior. Gold has been declining for 10 days and therefore has exceeded previous pullbacks in time since the early-November 2024 bearish correction. That is an indication of sellers dominating but also a sign that the pullback is getting closer to possibly completing. However, if the decline exceeds 12 days, as seen in November, a deeper correction may be in the works.
Remains in Monthly Consolidation Pattern
It is also interesting to note that the market seems to be recognizing support around the intersection of two rising and one falling trendlines around $3,272. Gold is currently trading around that price level and therefore could close at it or slightly above. When stepping back gold can be seen in a consolidation phase for the past two months or so. This can be seen relatively clearly on a monthly chart (not shown).
For most of June the price of gold has remained with the price range of May, which is within the price range of April. Therefore, June looks likely to complete two inside months. Although June exceeded May’s high briefly, the breakout quickly failed. Moreover, June’s closing price looks likely to be near the low of the month, which is today’s low of $3,256.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The recent bearish correction provided a successful test of dynamic support at the 200-Day MA. A new higher swing low was established today, which confirms support at the 200-Day MA. On a relative basis, the recent pullback showed underlying strength as the price of natural gas was rejected at the 200-Day line, while the prior two tests of the line failed initially to show support. Confirming the support area is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.35.
New Trend High Potential
Today’s bullish reversal has the potential to lead to a new trend high above $4.15. A rising trend channel looks supportive of the potential for a target zone from $4.35 to $4.37 to eventually be reached. In addition, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is a little higher at $4.46. However, the next price level to watch is a prior swing high at $3.84. A sustained breakout above that level opens the door to challenging and likely exceeding the $4.15 interim trend high.
Short-term Weakness Should Resolve to Upside
Given the bullish implications for the price of natural gas, short-term pullbacks will likely be used to accumulate, as traders anticipate the impact of the uptrend aligned on all time frames. The bullish trend channel shows a minimum potential upside. Once price bounces off one side of a channel there is the potential for it to eventually reach the other side. Notice that the top parallel line is confirmed with points. Very short-term support may be seen around the 20-Day MA and Thursday’s high of $3.60. Regardless, the chance for the above bullish scenario weakens if there is a drop below today’s low of $3.51.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
Silver price faces an intense sell-off due to multiple headwinds.
Stable truce between Israel and Iran, and improving US-China trade relations weakens demand for safe-haven assets.
Accelerating Fed dovish bets fail to support the Silver price.
Silver price slides over 2% to near $35.85 during European trading hours on Friday. The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure due to improvement in trade relations between the United States (US) and China and no signs of Israel-Iran truce violation.
During the European trading session, a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that Beijing has agreed to expedite exports to rare earths to the US, while Washington will revoke non-tariff barriers.
On Thursday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also confirmed that China is going to “deliver rare earths to us” and “we’ll [Washington] take down our countermeasures”, Bloomberg TV reported.
Another reason behind severe weakness in the Silver price is the stability in ceasefire between the two Middle East nations since the announcement on earlier this week. US President Donald Trump announced a truce between Israel and Iran, and urged them not to violate the same.
The scenario of easing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty diminishes the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, an increase in Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets due to tensions between Donald Trump and Chair Jerome Powell regarding the monetary policy stance has failed to offer support to the Silver price. Fed dovish bets escalate as investors expect Trump’s preferred Powell’s successor will support his economic agenda.
Theoretically, lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price forms a Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern on a four-timeframe whose breakdown below the neckline results in a bearish reversal. The neckline of the chart pattern is plotted near the Tuesday’s low around $35.28.
The white metal holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the long-term trend is still bullish.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would emerge if the RSI fails to hold above that level.
Looking down, the March 28 high around $34.60 will act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the fresh over-a-decade high around $37.32 will be the key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.3700 on Friday.
The technical outlook suggests that there is room for technical correction.
Markets await May PCE inflation data from the US.
GBP/USD extended its weekly rally and reached its highest level since October 2021 at 1.3770 on Thursday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase in the European session on Friday and fluctuates slightly below 1.3750.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-2.09%
-2.37%
-1.43%
-0.69%
-1.56%
-1.80%
-2.31%
EUR
2.09%
-0.31%
0.71%
1.44%
0.49%
0.30%
-0.26%
GBP
2.37%
0.31%
1.07%
1.75%
0.80%
0.61%
0.04%
JPY
1.43%
-0.71%
-1.07%
0.74%
-0.17%
-0.32%
-0.98%
CAD
0.69%
-1.44%
-1.75%
-0.74%
-0.84%
-1.12%
-1.67%
AUD
1.56%
-0.49%
-0.80%
0.17%
0.84%
-0.21%
-0.74%
NZD
1.80%
-0.30%
-0.61%
0.32%
1.12%
0.21%
-0.56%
CHF
2.31%
0.26%
-0.04%
0.98%
1.67%
0.74%
0.56%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled GBP/USD’s climb on Thursday. News suggesting that United States (US) President Donald Trump is planning to announce Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s replacement early to undermine him triggered a USD selloff. Additionally, mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US further weighed on the currency.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Thursday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0.5%, compared to the 0.2% contraction reported in the previous estimate. Other data from the US showed that weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 236,000 from 245,000 in the previous week and Durable Goods Orders rose by 16.4% in May, surpassing the market expectation of 8.5%.
Later in the session, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, for May will be featured in the US economic calendar. Markets expect the monthly core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise 0.1%. The market reaction to this data is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. A stronger-than-anticipated increase could support the USD in the immediate term.
Investors will also pay close attention to the changes in risk perception heading into the weekend. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up about 0.3%. A continuation of the risk rally could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and allow GBP/USD to inch higher.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart started to edge lower after rising above 70 on Thursday, suggesting that GBP/USD is in a correctional phase before extending its uptrend.
On the upside, interim resistance seems to have formed at 1.3750 ahead of 1.3790-1.3800 (upper limit of the ascending channel, static level) and 1.3860 (static level). Supports could be seen at 1.3700 (static level, round level), 1.3630 (mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.3600 (static level).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
General Mills’ stock price (GIS) extended its losses in latest intraday trading, amid the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the Stochastic, which return after the stock previously vented off some oversold saturation there.
Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $47.57, provided the resistance of $55.15 holds on.
Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
