– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slides on CBI Miss, Dollar Surges on Robust GDP

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell on Thursday as stronger US data contrasted with weaker UK releases.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3377, down around 0.5% from the session open.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced after a string of upbeat indicators. Durable goods orders for September jumped from -2.8% to 2.9%, far surpassing forecasts of -0.5%.

Meanwhile, final second-quarter GDP surged to 3.8% from -0.5%, above the 3.3% consensus.

Initial jobless claims also fell to 218,000, underscoring labour market resilience.

The combination of stronger data boosted the Dollar across the board, reinforcing demand for the Greenback during Thursday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, weakened after the UK’s CBI distributive trades survey underwhelmed. September’s reading edged up only from -32 to -29, missing expectations for -26.

The disappointment left Sterling under pressure and struggling to gain traction through the session.

GBP/USD Forecasts: US Inflation Gauge in Focus

Looking ahead to Friday, markets will watch the release of the US core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

A steady reading of 2.9% could bolster the Dollar by dampening bets on near-term Fed rate cuts.

For Sterling, a lack of fresh domestic releases leaves the Pound without direction, making it more vulnerable to broader market sentiment.

As the week closes, GBP/USD may remain driven by external factors and the strength of the US data pulse.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially pulled back against the Japanese yen but turned around to threaten the 149 yen level again, an area that is the resistance at the top of a consolidation zone. The consolidation zone spanning from 149 yen to the 146 yen level underneath has been in effect since the beginning of August. This looks a lot like a market that’s trying to do everything it can to break out. If and when it does, then you’re looking at a move to the 151 yen level next. If it does not, then we may go looking to the 200 day EMA, which is right in the middle of that consolidation region.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar continues to struggle, hanging on to gains, as we rallied a bit in the early part of the session, but have given back about half of the gains, just like we did during the previous session. The Australian dollar seems hell bent on going to the 0.6550 level underneath, an area that’s been like a magnet for price and now features a 50 day EMA. Out of all of the major currencies, the Australian dollar was one of the major underperformers through the sell-off of the US dollar for months, so logic dictates that if the US dollar starts strengthening, the Aussie dollar may be in serious trouble.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price activated the attempts of gathering the gains yesterday, by its stability below the barrier of $1480.00, which forces it to decline temporarily towards $1445.00, to keep its positive stability above the extra support at $1440.00.

The continuation of the price fluctuation above the current support and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, will increase the chances of breaching the previously-mentioned barrier, to confirm its move to a new positive stations, to begin recording extra gains by its rally to $1515.00 and $1543.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1460.00 and $1515.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on September 25, 2025

• During the trading session here on Wednesday we’ve seen the Japanese yen lose strength against most currencies.
• That of course will include the U S dollar. The U S dollar is approaching the 149 yen level, which has been a massive amount of resistance previously.
• So, we’ll see whether or not we can get above there and cotinue the overall resistance barrier fall by the wayside.

Inverted Hammer and Doji Broken

We are breaking the back of an inverted hammer from a couple of days ago as well as a very neutral candlestick from the previous session at this point It does look like we have a bit of momentum So I think we have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can actually break out and stay above 149 yen if we do then the market likely goes looking to the 151 yen level possibly even higher than that. In fact, we could be seeing the start of a trend, although it is too early to tell with this pair.

On the other hand, if we show signs of exhaustion near the 149 yen level, then I think we just sit in this same range. The action over the last couple of weeks since the FOMC press conference certainly adds more credence to the idea of short-term pullbacks offering buying opportunities in a market that pays you at the end of every day to be holding US dollars in short of the Japanese yen.

I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before we rally, and it is worth noting that the US dollar has been extraordinarily stubborn to selling against other currencies around the world, and the Japanese yen doesn’t look to be any different as the US dollar tends to move in the same direction against most major currencies.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on September 25, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Downward bias.
• Today’s Support Levels: 1.1720 – 1.1650 – 1.1580.
• Today’s Resistance Levels: 1.1800 – 1.1870 – 1.1930.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1820 resistance level. Target: 1.1600. Stop-loss: 1.1900.
• Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1640 support level. Target: 1.1810. Stop-loss: 1.1600.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As previously predicted, renewed selling of the Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) may be possible as bulls fail to advance further above the 1.18000 resistance level. This was confirmed by yesterday’s trading, as the Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) price fell from the 1.1820 resistance level, with losses, to the 1.1728 support level, where it stabilized at the beginning of today’s session, Thursday, September 25, 2025. The Forex market is awaiting the announcement of a series of important US economic releases, led by the US GDP growth rate, followed by the weekly unemployment claims number and the durable goods orders figures, all at 3:30 PM Cairo time.

Reasons for the Euro’s Renewed Decline

According to forex currency trading experts, the EUR/USD pair retreated from its four-year high of 1.1920, which it tested following the US rate cut. The euro’s drop resumed after weaker-than-expected German economic indicators negatively affected the value of the single European currency. The German IFO Business Climate Index fell by 1.2 points to 87.7 in September, reaching its lowest level since May and missing market forecasts of 89.3. This decline followed mixed Eurozone PMI results, which showed continued private sector growth in September, driven by a strong services sector, while the manufacturing sector contracted.

Meanwhile, investors followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated his cautious stance on US interest rate cuts amid continued inflationary pressures from tariffs and a weak labor market. Financial market expectations currently indicate a greater than 90% chance of a US interest rate cut by the Fed in October, with investors awaiting the US Personal Expenditures Price Index (PEPI) due out Friday.

German bond yields fell… What happened?

According to trusted trading platforms, German bond yields fell as economic data wavered and the Federal Reserve adopted a cautious outlook, which affected market performance. The yield on German 10-year bonds reached 2.73%, retreating after having risen to a two-week high of 2.762% on Monday. This retreat came as investors assessed new economic data and its implications for European Central Bank policy. The German IFO Business Climate Index’s decline to 87.7, missing expectations, reflected lower business confidence in both current conditions and future expectations.

Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showed that Germany’s services sector expanded at its fastest pace since May 2024, while manufacturing contracted more sharply than expected. In the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his cautious stance on interest rate hikes, taking into account persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs and signs of a slowing labor market. Also, geopolitical tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to reclaim all Russian-occupied territory.

Technical Outlook for the Euro Dollar:

Based on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is emerging from the neutral zone amid a bearish bias that will intensify if bears succeed in advancing towards the support levels of 1.1690 and 1.1600, respectively. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently approaching a break above the 50-line, increasing the bearish technical momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are trending downwards, awaiting further selling pressure. A strong EUR/USD bullish scenario on the daily chart should prompt bulls to move towards the resistance levels of 1.1820 and 1.1900, followed by the psychological resistance of 1.2000, respectively.

Trading Tips:

We still recommend selling the euro against the US dollar with every strong upward bounce, but never take risks and be careful. Obvioulsy, the US dollar is awaiting the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation reading at the end of the week.

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