The (Brent) price rose in its last trading on the intraday basis, amid the stability of its trading above the critical support of $64.95, attempting to correct the main bearish trend on the short-term basis, amid the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reducing the chances for a sustainable recovery in the upcoming period, especially with the beginning of the negative signs appearance on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, forming negative divergence that intensifies the negative pressure around the price.
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The EURJPY pair kept its positive stability above 175.20 level, confirming its surrender to the bullish bias dominance, to rally towards 176.30, which forces it to form an intraday rebound to gather more positive momentum for today.
Stochastic rally above 50 level will provide new chance for recording extra gains, to expect its rally towards 176.95, as surpassing this barrier will extend the trading towards the next target at 177.45, while the price decline below 175.20 and providing negative close might force it to form bearish corrective trading before reaching any suggested target.
The expected trading range for today is between 175.40 and 176.95
Gold holds the latest uptick to a new all-time high near $3,980 in Tuesday’s Asian trades, as buyers still keep their sights on the key $4,000 barrier.
Gold: The record rally appears uninterrupted
Gold buyers refuse to give up yet even as the US Dollar (USD) sustains the previous turnaround so far this Tuesday.
The Greenback’s strength on the back of the recent sell-off in the Euro (EUR) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), led by the political jolts in France and Japan, continues to cap Gold’s upside.
However, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive of the traditional safe-haven and non-interest-bearing Gold.
The US shutdown extends as the Democrat law to reopen the government failed for the 5th time in the Senate on Monday, as the sticking point continues to remain health care subsidies.
Meanwhile, concerns over a lack of official US economic data publication and increased bets of two Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year keep boosting the demand for the bright metal.
Additionally, sustained Gold buying by global central banks also continues to power the Gold record rally.
The latest data compiled by the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that the central bank Gold buying rebounded in August, citing a 15-tonne increase to the global gold reserves.
According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reported earlier on, China’s Gold holdings totalled 74.06 million fine troy ounces at the end of September, up from 74.02 million in the previous month, as the central bank expanded bullion purchases for the 11th straight month.
Therefore, Gold remains a ‘buy on pullbacks’ trade, in the absence of any bearish factors as such.
Traders will continue to monitor speeches from Fed officials for fresh insights on the US economy and the Fed’s path forward on interest rates.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hourly chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is easing from the overbought region, currently near 70.50, suggesting that any pullback could be quickly bought into.
Buyers look to conquer the $3,980 psychological barrier on the way to the $4,000 mark.
Conversely, if a pullback gathers steam, Gold could test the initial support at $3,897, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA), below which the 50-SMA at $3,845 could be attacked.
A firm break below that latter will expose the 100-SMA at $3,772.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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If I had shown you this chart unlabelled, one would be forgiven for thinking this was the five-minute chart, especially considering the past eight candles or so.
While sustained upside, as shown above, is rare on the weekly chart, gold bulls will undoubtedly be pleased with recent performance, with price action virtually parabolic.
Having broken out of an upwards channel, with the upper boundary held around $3,602, what followed was an explosive move to the upside, marking fresh all-time highs.
While no candlestick structure to the upside could otherwise offer resistance, traders should be aware that a short-term correction remains possible, with the RSI reporting gold pricing as ‘overbought’ for the fourth time this year.
Otherwise, should price stage a move higher, we can expect some profit-taking at the key level of $4,000.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) weakened on Monday despite an ongoing US government shutdown, and an uptick in Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3433, down roughly 0.4% from the start of Monday’s session.
The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against several major peers on Monday, despite ongoing domestic uncertainty.
The US government remained in shutdown during the session, with reports suggesting that widespread lay-offs could follow if the funding bill is not agreed upon soon.
At the same time, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a sharp rise in interest rate cut expectations, with markets now pricing in a 95% probability of a cut in October and an 85% chance of another in December.
Ordinarily, such dovish expectations might weigh on the ‘Greenback’, but the currency instead managed to find support.
Weakness in both the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR) at the start of the week allowed the USD to gain ground, helping it firm against a range of major counterparts despite the challenging domestic backdrop.
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The Pound (GBP) traded without a clear sense of direction on Monday, fluctuating against the majority of its peers in the absence of any significant UK data releases.
A mixed market mood left Sterling moving unevenly through the session, dipping against certain rivals while recording modest gains elsewhere.
With little in the way of domestic drivers to influence sentiment, GBP investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of a scheduled speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey later in the evening.
Should Bailey deliver hawkish commentary or indicate that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer, the Pound could find renewed support in the wake of his remarks.
Looking ahead to Tuesday’s European session, movement in the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is expected to hinge on a series of scheduled Federal Reserve speeches.
If Fed policymakers strike a hawkish tone and signal that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, the US Dollar may strengthen as investors adjust their expectations.
Equally, any dovish remarks reinforcing the likelihood of rate cuts could see the ‘Greenback’ come under renewed pressure.
As for the Pound, a continued lack of UK economic releases means Sterling is likely to remain directionless, with traders instead taking cues from wider market trends.
In the absence of fresh domestic drivers, GBP exchange rates could remain volatile, fluctuating in response to changes in global risk appetite and external developments throughout Tuesday’s European trading session.
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Cluster of Resistance Indicators Suggests Downside Risk
The recent rejection near $3.59 gains added technical significance given the confluence of resistance factors at that zone. A bearish bat harmonic pattern has formed near last week’s high, while the 200-Day moving average, the upper boundary of a descending trend channel, and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection of the rising ABCD pattern all converge in the same region. This combination reinforces the probability that natural gas may be facing exhaustion following its recent recovery phase.
Watching Key Support Levels for Reaction
Initial support now lies near $3.20, where short-term buyers may attempt to defend the trend. Below that, the 20-Day moving average around $3.10 represents a more critical dynamic support area. The rising ABCD structure remains corrective in nature, implying that the larger bearish channel still dominates the broader trend. A move above $3.59 would be required to invalidate this bearish bias and confirm that a new swing higher is developing. Until then, rallies are likely to face resistance on approach to the 200-Day line.
Weekly Perspective: Neutral Within a Broad Range
On the weekly chart, natural gas continues to trade inside last week’s broad range from $3.13 to $3.59. This keeps the larger trend technically neutral for now, as no breakout signal has yet emerged on that timeframe. Meanwhile, the 20-Week moving average, currently around $3.27, offers potential support should weakness deepen. Price action around this area will be key in determining whether natural gas stabilizes for a new swing higher or resumes its longer-term downtrend.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Political jitters in Japan, France, and the United States boosted demand for safety.
The US Dollar shed ground after Wall Street’s opening amid the US government’s continued shutdown.
XAU/USD extended its record run, bulls retain control despite extreme overbought conditions.
Spot Gold reached fresh record highs on Monday, trading above the $3,950 threshold as global political turmoil boosted demand for the safe-haven metal. The US Dollar (USD) started the day on a strong footing, maintaining a positive momentum during Asian and European trading hours amid political headlines coming from Japan and France. Still, Gold also rose on safety demand. The USD turned south as American traders reached their desks, further fueling the XAU/USD pair advance.
Over the weekend, the Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Sanae Takaichi, a 64-year-old lawmaker, positioning her to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister. The news heavily weighed on the JPY amid mounting speculation of upcoming increased federal spending and a looser monetary policy.
Meanwhile, France had yet another Prime Minister resigning. Newly appointed Sébastien Lecornu resigned less than a day after his cabinet was unveiled. The country’s crisis revolved around the government’s massive debt and the lack of Parliamentary agreement to deal with it. The headline further boosted demand for safety.
Another factor weighing on markets is the continued United States (US) government shutdown. The country entered its sixth day of reduced federal activity, with no visible signs of a potential agreement between Democrats and Republicans. President Donald Trump warned about upcoming massive layoffs should the situation continue.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it trades near it record high of $3,970.11, with a strong bullish bias. The Momentum indicator aims north almost vertically well above its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator extends its upward slope at around 84, without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, the pair trades far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average currently standing at around $3,745.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bullish. Technical indicators resumed their advances within overbought territory after a modest corrective slide, in line with prevalent buying interest. At the same time, the bright metal extends its advance beyond all bullish moving averages. The 20 SMA currently gains upward at around $3,889, while the longer ones accelerated their advances well below it, in line with the dominant bullish trend.
EUR/USD forecast remains restrained around 1.1660, with political chaos in France and the US government pressuring market sentiment.
The downside risk is restricted by expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the euro finds backing from the ECB’s stable stance.
Traders are focused on potential technical levels and economic data, which could influence EUR/USD’s upcoming move.
The EUR/USD forecast indicates the pair continues to hold steady near one-month lows since renewed political instability in France and the ongoing US government shutdown constrain the market. The euro dropped below 1.1700 just as the French Prime Minister, Sebastian Lecornu, resigned. This move exacerbated concerns about worsening Eurozone instability.
On the other hand, the continuing US fiscal impasse, in its second week, has impeded government operations and stalled major data releases. Meanwhile, President Trump’s threat of mass layoffs has further shaken the markets. Keeping these pressures in view, the downside for EUR/USD looks limited. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 95% probability of an October cut and 84% for December. Additionally, this dovish sentiment could cap further US dollar strength.
In the European part, the ECB’s cautious stance suggests limited but stable backing for the bloc’s currency. Policymaker Martin Kazaks emphasized that current interest rates are very reasonable, indicating policy stability despite inconsistent regional growth.
Eurozone retail sales increased 1% year-on-year in August, in line with forecasts but declining from July’s 2.1%, highlighting a moderate consumer recovery. Investors now anticipate Sentix Investor Confidence data and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos, and board member Philip Lane for additional policy signals.
By and large, while US fiscal deadlock and France’s political unrest continue to dampen sentiment, expectations of Fed rate cuts and stable ECB policy could offer the euro some strength.
EUR/USD Key Events Today
The economic calendar is light today with no major data releases, while French politics and US funding talks have taken center stage.
The EUR/USD daily chart reveals the currency pair retaining a sideways-to-bearish bias. The price has declined beneath the 20-day moving average (green line) and is holding right above the 100-day SMA (orange line) near 1.1620, indicating short-term weakness. A drop below this level could expose the next downside around 1.1195 (200-day SMA).
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The RSI has dropped near 45, highlighting slowing momentum and signaling that bearish pressure may persevere unless buyers reclaim control above 1.1720. Overall, EUR/USD looks range-bound with a mild breach tilt, expecting a breakout for precise directional movement.
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Sell Gold from the resistance level of $3930, with a target of $3700 and a stop-loss at $3980.
Buy Gold from the support level of $3770, with a target of $3940 and a stop-loss at $3730.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
The price of gold at $4000 per ounce is the next target for gold bulls amid the continued strong positive momentum in the market. According to platforms of gold trading companies, momentary gold prices rose to the resistance level of $3897 per ounce, the highest in the history of the yellow metal market. The absence of US job numbers at the end of last week provided enough momentum for gold bulls to hold onto their gains. The US government shutdown joined the factors driving gains in the gold market, leading traders to ignore the fact that all technical indicators had reached sharp overbought levels.
Gold Analysts’ Forecasts Today
According to today’s gold analyst forecasts, the markets in general remain optimistic about gold prices rising, as is their custom after another distinguished performance, with key market investors becoming more optimistic about gold’s potential gains in the coming days. According to platforms of reliable trading companies, the gold price rose for the seventh consecutive week, having declined in only one week since the end of July. Generally, the US government shutdown, increasing talk of Europe re-using Russian reserves, and the trade war in Europe are all factors supporting sentiment. Regarding the most prominent support and resistance levels for gold trading, the near-term support appears to be around $3800, and $4000 per ounce is the closest point in the upward trajectory.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp trader, keep in mind that the gold market is one of the most important safe havens for investors in times of uncertainty, and the situation surrounding the markets and the global economy will support the continued rise in the price of gold.
Will gold prices decline in the coming days?
We expect the new trading week to see a continued rise in gold prices. There are factors that could converge to stop its continuous ascent: the end of the US government shutdown, a peace agreement reached in Gaza, and the ongoing “strike” among Chinese gold buyers. However, the first two factors were not the cause of the gold price rise, so it is logical that they would have no effect if they reversed, while the cessation of Chinese buying—the effects of which are evident in the significant discounts in Shanghai—has been ongoing for some time. Therefore, I believe the gold index will strongly overcome these potential negatives.
According to some trading experts, the government shutdown’s impact on the Federal Reserve’s ability to measure employment rates is minimal, as they don’t believe the Fed relies heavily on government figures, which have been far from forecasts recently. Generally speaking, the Fed should have its own database to track, so I don’t think they’re acting randomly. They should have a good understanding of things.
Recently, we’ve seen some market volatility as a result of dovish Fed statements, but it was short-lived. Gold trading fell sharply when Dallas Fed President Lori Logan said they didn’t want a major interest rate cut and would have to raise them again. “But it looks like things are starting to recover.” Overall, the gold market’s positive outlook has returned significantly. Many metals analysts expect gold prices to rise this week, while none expect a decline. Other analysts expect gold to trade neutrally in the coming days.
