Oil prices soar after Israel strikes Iran, raising fears of wider Middle East conflict- Global oil prices have surged sharply after Israel launched a military strike on Iran, pushing Brent crude up by more than 10% in early trading—its biggest one-day jump in months. The sudden escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran has left energy markets on edge, raising fresh concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East.

The latest developments come as Israel reportedly targeted Iran’s nuclear sites and senior military commanders, prompting retaliatory drone attacks from Iran. According to Israel’s military, over 100 drones were launched by Iran in response. The rising instability has rattled global markets, increased investor anxiety, and sent gold prices to their highest level in nearly two months, signaling a classic flight to safety.

Oil Price Surge – June 13, 2025

• Brent crude rose by $5.25, or 7.6%, to $74.61 per barrel as of 12:15 GMT, reaching an intraday high of $78.50, the highest level since January 27, 2025.
• WTI (West Texas Intermediate) climbed $5.57, or 8.2%, to $73.61, hitting a peak of $77.62, the highest since January 21, 2025.
• These were the largest intraday gains for both Brent and WTI since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Market Reaction & Economic Impact

• Global equities dropped, with U.S. futures down between 1.5% to 1.8%.
• Investors moved funds to safe havens, boosting gold, U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc, and the U.S. dollar.
• War-risk insurance premiums for tankers surged by over 300%, increasing shipping costs.
• The global oil market’s key concern was whether tensions would disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route through which 18–20 million barrels per day (or about 20% of global oil consumption) pass.

Analyst Insights

• Goldman Sachs: Factored in a geopolitical risk premium in its summer 2025 oil forecast but assumed no actual disruption in Middle East oil supply.
• Rystad Energy: Predicted the oil rally would be short-lived, with a low probability of all-out war. Analysts noted that nearly all Iranian oil exports go to China, which could be most affected.
• J.P. Morgan: Warned that if escalation continues, oil could spike to $120 per barrel.
• Barclays and ING: Estimated that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices beyond $100 per barrel.
• Analysts also pointed to OPEC+ spare capacity as a stabilizing factor if supply gets tight.

Why are global oil prices rising so fast after the Israel-Iran conflict?

The benchmark Brent crude price surged over 10% shortly after Israel confirmed the attack, climbing to levels not seen since January. As European markets opened, prices cooled slightly but still held a 5% gain compared to Thursday, trading around $72.80 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose, trading at $73.20.

Although prices remain well below the $100-plus highs seen during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, traders are now pricing in potential threats to vital supply routes and oil facilities across the region. The Middle East is home to a significant share of global oil production, and any conflict that puts that at risk sends shockwaves through the market.

Could the Israel-Iran crisis disrupt global oil supply chains?

Yes, energy analysts are warning that this conflict, if it escalates, could disrupt oil flows—especially if Iran targets infrastructure or shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is one of the most critical chokepoints for global energy supplies, with nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil passing through it daily. According to Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, “What we see now is a very initial risk-on reaction. But over the next day or two, the market will need to factor in where this could escalate to.” Capital Economics analysts say if Iranian production or export facilities are hit, Brent crude could rise to $80–$100 per barrel, depending on the scale of the disruption. However, they also suggest that higher prices could trigger increased output from other oil-producing nations, which might limit the long-term impact.

How are investors and markets reacting to the oil price shock?

The rising oil prices triggered widespread uncertainty across financial markets. Stock markets across Asia and Europe declined, with Japan’s Nikkei closing down 0.9% and the UK’s FTSE 100 index falling 0.4% by mid-morning.

At the same time, “safe-haven assets” like gold and the Swiss franc gained sharply. The gold price jumped 1.2% to hit $3,423.30 an ounce, marking its highest level in nearly two months.

These moves reflect growing investor concern that this latest round of violence could spiral into a wider regional conflict, with unpredictable effects on global inflation and energy supply.

Will petrol prices go up too? What could this mean for consumers?

It’s still unclear whether this spike in crude prices will immediately impact prices at the pump. According to Rod Dennis from the UK’s RAC motoring group, it’s “too soon” to say.

He added that “there are two key factors at play: whether higher wholesale fuel prices are sustained over the coming days and, crucially, the sort of margin retailers decide to take.”

If the conflict continues or worsens, consumers could feel the pinch in the form of higher petrol and diesel prices, especially if disruptions reach the Strait of Hormuz. Rising fuel costs also feed into higher transportation and food prices, which could affect inflation worldwide.

How serious is the risk of a broader Middle East war?

Analysts are warning that the current situation could either calm quickly—or spiral into a broader war. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights told the BBC, “It’s an explosive situation, albeit one that could be defused quickly, as we saw in April and October last year.”

However, she also warned, “It could also spiral out into a bigger war that disrupts Mideast oil supply.”

If Iran’s oil infrastructure or shipping routes come under serious threat, the global energy market could face a major crisis. With multiple countries relying heavily on oil shipped from the Gulf, any major conflict could send shockwaves far beyond the region.

What happens next in the global oil markets?

Oil traders and analysts will now be closely watching political and military developments. Key questions include whether Iran escalates its response, if other regional powers become involved, and how the U.S. and allies react. At the same time, OPEC and major producers may be forced to consider output changes to stabilize markets.

As the situation unfolds, the global economy faces rising uncertainty—not just over oil, but over inflation, market stability, and energy security.

FAQs:

Q1: Why did global oil prices surge after Israel’s strike on Iran?
Oil prices jumped due to fears that the Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt key Middle East oil supplies.

Q2: Could the Strait of Hormuz be affected by this conflict?
Yes, if tensions rise, Iran might block or disrupt oil flow through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Failed Weekly Breakdown

Weekly support from last week was at $3.50 and it was broken on Wednesday. However, it was not confirmed with a daily close below that price level. Therefore, a weekly closing price above that level could be the sign of a false breakdown. Currently, today’s closing price will be above that price level and at a four-day closing high, another sign of strength.

Key Near-term Support at $3.44

Nonetheless, key support is at a minor higher swing low of $3.44, while this week’s low was at $3.45. If the slightly lower $3.44 level fails, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.38 is the next lower target where support may be seen. Then, a little lower is the 200-Day MA, now at $3.32.

Watching for Breakout Above $3.62

A decisive breakout above today’s high of $3.62 could be the next sign of strength that has the potential to lead to higher prices. But the four-day high of $3.66 would need to be exceeded before there are clearer signs of a bottom. A recovery of the $3.66 level would establish a slightly higher swing low from this week. Solid potential resistance lies above and up to the $3.84 swing high from May. If natural gas can get above the May swing high, it has a chance to complete a rising ABCD pattern at $4.08. That price level is joined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.12.

Above 200-Day MA is Bullish

Given the two recent bounces off the area around the 200-Day MA since April, the uptrend begun from the April swing low is expected to continue. That could change if there is a decisive decline below the 200-Day line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Global oil markets were jolted on Friday after Israel launched a sweeping military operation on Iranian nuclear and military sites, with J.P. Morgan warning that oil prices could surge to as high as $120 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East worsen further.

The investment bank said current prices already reflect a 7% chance of a worst-case geopolitical scenario, one in which Iranian oil supplies are severely disrupted and the price reaction becomes “exponential rather than linear.”

As of early Friday, Brent futures surged nearly 9% to $75.36 per barrel, while WTI rose $6.16 to $74.20, following the news of Israeli strikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and military leadership. Iranian media reported explosions at the Natanz nuclear site and confirmed the death of Hossein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guards.

Also Read | Rs 1 lakh gold, $78 oil, 1,300 point Sensex crash: Israel’s Friday the 13th bombshellHere are the six key takeaways from J.P. Morgan’s latest oil market outlook, now playing out against an increasingly combustible geopolitical backdrop:

1. A 7% chance of a nightmare scenario already priced in
According to the J.P. Morgan, oil prices reflect a “7% probability of a worst-case scenario,” in which the impact on supply goes beyond reduced Iranian exports. In such a case, the bank said, price surge would not be gradual but “exponential,” driven by panic reactions and wider regional contagion.

2. Oil could jump to $120, pushing U.S. inflation to 5%
“An attack on Iran could spike oil prices to $120, driving U.S. CPI to 5%,” the investment bank warned.Such a move would reverse recent progress on inflation and complicate monetary policy for the Federal Reserve, which has been preparing for a potential rate-cut cycle later this year.

3. Base case oil forecast held at $60–$65
Despite the heightened tensions, J.P. Morgan said it was “downplaying geopolitical concerns” and maintaining its base case for Brent crude in the “low-to-mid $60s oil for the rest of 2025, and $60 in 2026.”

The investment bank expects oil to average $60 per barrel in 2026. This forecast assumes that regional powers will act to prevent a full-scale conflict.

4. Strait of Hormuz closure seen as unlikely
The bank downplayed fears of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint, stating: “The closure of Hormuz is a low-risk event as Iran would be damaging its own position, both economically and politically, by irritating its main customer.”

Roughly a fifth of global oil passes through this strait, and any disruption there would have dramatic effects on energy markets.

5. Gulf nations have a stake in stability
J.P. Morgan argued that major Middle Eastern producers have strong incentives to keep hostilities from spiraling.

“Main players in the Middle East have strong incentives to keep the conflict contained given the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the Gulf region requires a sustained absence of conflict,” the bank said, citing the sweeping economic diversification plans underway in the Gulf, which depend on prolonged regional calm.

This includes massive infrastructure and diversification efforts in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

6. Oil surged, markets sank as tensions boiled over
Oil prices spiked while global markets sold off on Friday after Israel’s offensive on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Brent crude gained $6 to hit $75.36 a barrel, while WTI futures rose $6.16 to $74.20. Gold, another haven asset, climbed 1.5% to $3,434 per ounce.

Meanwhile, Israel said it was preparing for retaliatory missile and drone attacks, declaring a state of emergency nationwide. Iran has vowed a response after losing top military officials, including Salami, and seeing key installations in Tehran and Natanz come under fire.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Washington had no role in the Israeli operation, calling it a “unilateral action.”

The sudden escalation comes amid stalled nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran and ahead of a critical vote by the International Atomic Energy Agency on June 12 in Vienna, which could trigger a snapback of United Nations sanctions on Iran.

With oil supply risks now sharply elevated and diplomatic off-ramps narrowing, J.P. Morgan’s warning looks increasingly prescient.

Also read | Oil jumps more than 12% as Israel strikes Iran, rattling investors
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

• Risk aversion has boosted Gold to fresh monthly highs.
• A rush for safety after Israel’s attack on Iran has triggered a rush for safety on Friday.
• XAU/USD bulls are focusing on $3440 and the $3495 all-time high.

Gold (XAU/USD) appreciates for the third consecutive day on Friday, and is on track for a weekly rally beyond 3%. Israel’s attack on Iran has crushed an already fragile market sentiment on Friday, triggering a rush for safety that has boosted Gold and all the traditional safe assets.

Israel attacked Iran with unprecedented strength earlier on Friday, pounding nuclear sites and killing high-ranking Revolutionary Guard Officials. Iran retaliated with a drone attack and leaving the nuclear negotiations with the US. Fears of a full-blown war in the region have fuelled an intense risk-off mood.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD bulls aim for $3,440 ahead of the $3,495 record high

Technical indicators are pointing higher again. RSI studies in the 4-hour chart are high but still below overbought territory. The fundamental background is supportive, despite generalised USD strength, and bearish attempts remain limited so far.

The precious metal is trading at the top of a wedge pattern with trendline resistance at $3,425 is holding bears ahead of the May 6 high, at $3,440. Bulls need to clear these levels before shifting their focus to the $3,495 all-time high hit in late April.

On the downside, bears are being held above the $3,400 previous resistance (Jun 5 high). A pullback below here would bring the June 12 low and the bottom of the wedge pattern, both around $3,345, into focus.

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart

Copper price neediness to the momentum in the last trading led to delay the bullish attempts, to notice its fluctuations below the barrier near $4.8100, and providing an intraday negative rebound at $4.7100.

 

Note that the price success to settle above 50% Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600 will assist to reinforce the chances for activating the bullish track until breaching the mentioned barrier, while breaking this support will increase the negative pressure on the current trading, which force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.6000 and $4.5300.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8100

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track