The US dollar initially rallied during Wednesday’s trading session, but the 145 yen level continues to act as a strong resistance.
This level has held firm, and it’s widely seen as a critical threshold.
Adding to the challenge is the 50-day EMA hovering just above, which could further hinder upward momentum.
Nonetheless, I think this is a market where the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar. And despite the fact that CPI was a little bit cooler than anticipated in America, I still think we have to pay close attention to the whole idea of the trade situation between the United States and China having a major influence on risk appetite as well. After all, the Japanese yen is considered to be the ultimate safety currency, if you will.
Pullbacks Could Be Interesting
So, we’ll have to see how that plays out. With that being said, I think you have a scenario where a pullback almost certainly gets bought into just as a breakout almost certainly will get bought into. I don’t really have any interest in trying to short this market right now as the 142 yen level has been important multiple times.
I think that your floor breaking down below there opens up the possibility of a drop down to the 140 yen level, which has even more ramifications from a support standpoint. All things being equal, this is a market that I am positive on, but I recognize you’re going to have to sit around and just get paid to swap and be very patient between now and the move that we do end up having. A lot of patience here goes a long way.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.
We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00
Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.
We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00
Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.
We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00
Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.
We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00
Silver retreats 0.87% as RSI signals overbought market conditions.
US CPI miss boosts rate cut bets but fails to support metals.
Key support lies at $36.00; upside targets remain near $37.50.
Silver price reverses course on Wednesday as the North American session ends, edging down 0.87%. Although US inflation eased in May, typically a signal that would support rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and weigh on the US Dollar, it failed to underpin the grey metal. XAG/USD is trading at $36.21.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Despite retreating, XAG/USD remains poised to test higher prices. Momentum depicts that sellers stepped in as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory. This, along with traders’ booking profits, sent Silver prices below $36.50, which, once cleared, opened the door towards $36.00.
A breach of the latter will expose $35.40, a high point from October 2012, which has since turned into support. Once surpassed, the next stop is $35.00, followed by the $34.00 and $33.00 figures,
On the other hand, if XAG/USD reclaimed $36.50, the next target is $37.00. On further strength, prices could reach 37.49, a 13-year high set on February 29.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EURJPY pair formed a new bullish rally, taking advantage of stochastic reach to the overbought level, hitting the second positive target at 166.45, forming some mixed trading by reaching 165.75.
Note that the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels by forming extra support at 164.80 level, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to keep waiting for breaching the barrier at 166.45, which allows it to reach new bullish station that might begin at 167.25 reaching the bullish channel’s resistance at 168.50.
The expected trading range for today is between 165.30 and 167.00
Gold price is sitting at fresh weekly highs near the $3,380 neighborhood, building on the previous upswing early Thursday. Gold buyers closely eye the Middle East geopolitical tensions and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for a fresh leg north.
Gold price cheers softer US Dollar, geopolitical woes
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, markets are slightly risk averse and prefer to flock to the traditional safe-haven Gold price.
According to CBS News senior White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs, United States (US) officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.
“US anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain US sites in Iraq,” Jacobs added.
This comes as US President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country’s nuclear program on Sunday.
Bolstering the Gold price advance, the US Dollar (USD) extends the softer US inflation data-led decline and flirts with two-month lows against its major currency rivals.
The US Consumer Price Index i(CPI) increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both prints undermined expectations of 0.2% and 2.5% respectively. Core figures also came in below estimates across the time horizons.
Tame US CPI data ramped up odds for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, with markets now pricing in about a 62% probability of 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool, up from 52% seen pre-data release.
The latest downtick in the US Dollar is sponsored by the looming uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs even as US-China trade tensions ease.
Trump said on Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks with countries before higher US tariffs are imposed.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Wednesday that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.
The USD will likely remain defensive as markets try to make sense of the latest trade developments and its impact on the economic outlook.
However, hot US PPI inflation data could offer some respite to USD buyers, limiting the Gold price upside.
The US PPI is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 2.6% in May, following a 2.4% increase in April. The monthly PPI inflation is set to rebound to 0.2% in the same period. Core PPI is expected to rise 3.1% over the year and 0.3% on a monthly basis last month.
Also, of note will remain the simmering Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict and trade headlines, which could have a significant impact on the USD and hence, the bright metal.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that record purchases by global central banks and rising prices have strengthened Gold’s position as the second biggest reserve holding in value terms, first being the USD, a report published by the European Central Bank (ECB) showed on Wednesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The bullish outlook for Gold price in the short term has been solidified as buyers staged a solid reversal from the critical $3,297 level.
That level is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, currently near 57.50, justifying the renewed upside.
For a sustained uptrend, Gold price must find a foothold above the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377 on a daily closing basis.
The next stiff resistance is spotted at the $3,400 mark, above which the May high of $3,439 will come into the picture.
On the downside, the immediate support is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,315.
Gold sellers need a decisive break below the abovementioned strong support at $3,297 to challenge the 50-day SMA cushion at $3,279.
The last line of defense for buyers is aligned at $3,232, the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar dipped sharply following the weaker-than-expected US inflation data.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) jumped to 1.3550 before a retreat to 1.3525.
Key resistance remains towards 1.3600 with doubts whether the Pound can secure sufficient momentum. According to UoB GBP/USD is vulnerable to a slide to 1.3430 unless there is a break above 1.3580.
A sustained move above 1.3600, however, would trigger speculation over more gains.
Markets moved to price in a larger potential for a September Fed rate cut and there will be expectations of another barrage of Fed criticism from President Trump.
Traders are already sensitive over the risk of a pro-administration appointment for the next Fed Chair.
There was limited reaction to the UK spending review. The substantial front-loading of spending in this parliament was confirmed with health and defence spending securing strong gains, while other departments will suffer.
The current market dynamics were illustrated by the fact that US inflation data had a much bigger impact on UK yields with the 10-year yield sliding to near 4.55% from above 4.60%.
According to ING; “The take-away for markets today will simply be confirmation that there is very little fiscal headroom.”
Overnight, it was reported that the US and Chinese negotiators have produced a framework for implementing the details of an agreement that had been previously agreed in May
Trump stated that a final deal had been reached with tariffs on Chinese imports at 55% and Chinese tariffs on US imports at 10%, although there was still confusion over the figures.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia Currency Strategist Carol Kong commented; “It will still be very hard and it will take a long time for both sides to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. That sort of comprehensive deal usually takes years to be reached, so I’m skeptical that a framework reached at the meeting in London will be comprehensive. Tensions might be de-escalated for now, but they will certainly escalate again in coming months.”
Markets are likely to be disappointed that tariffs on Chinese imports will be 55% despite limited immediate reaction.
US consumer prices increased 0.1% for May compared with consensus forecasts of 0.2% with the year-on-year increase at 2.4% from 2.3% and slightly below expectations of 2.5%.
Core prices increased 0.1% on the month compared with expectations of 0.3% with the annual increase held at 2.8%.
Markets still expect no Fed rate cut in June and July, but with increased expectations of a September cut.
Scotiabank the release of the US Federal Budget Balance will likely sharpen the market’s focus on the USD’s longer-term issues.
According to ING; “A soft 3-year Treasury auction reversed some recent gains in US government bonds, which now face a dual test today with the highly watched 10-year auction.”
MUFG added; “The results were weak enough to keep the markets nervous ahead of the USD 39bn worth of 10-year paper auctioned this evening and USD 22bn worth of 30-year tomorrow. Nervousness around the 30-year auction could be particularly high given the signs of investors steering clear of longer-dated paper due to both inflation and debt sustainability concerns.”
MUFG also noted suggestions that the Budget Bill would be amended in the Senate.
It added; “Some element of sense prevailing in the Senate in pushing back on this bill would certainly help reduce some of the current negative US dollar sentiment.”
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Although price levels indicated by the moving averages can provide a guide, they are not as reliable in a consolidating environment as seen recently. The higher swing low at $3.44 shows a potentially more significant price level as it is part of a possible CD leg of a developing rising ABCD pattern (purple). Given the downward pressure shown today, that price level is at risk of being broken.
Furthermore, weakness today triggered a breakdown below last week’s low of $3.50 and created a lower weekly low and lower high. Therefore, a daily close below $3.50 confirms the breakdown on a daily basis, while a potential weekly confirmation will have to wait until the end of day on Friday.
Weekly Breakdown Triggers
It is interesting to note that the past few weeks have shown a series of lower weekly highs on the weekly chart (not shown). That pattern occurred as natural gas was attempting to break above resistance established at the early-May swing high of $3.84. Now that a weekly low was busted, it provides another bearish indication but on the higher time frame. Moreover, there was a potentially bearish shooting start candlestick pattern generated two weeks ago. The pattern suggested potential difficulty in exceeding the $3.84 high as well.
Lower Price Levels
If natural gas falls below today’s low and then the $3.44 low, it looks likely to head for a test of support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.38. That is also close to the weekly opening price two weeks ago.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
