• Gold price prints monthly highs near $3,400 early Tuesday, then retreats.
• The US Dollar comes up for air after Monday’s sell-off on renewed trade concerns.
• Gold price breaks through the key resistance line on the daily chart amid bullish RSI.

Gold price is on a modest pullback from the monthly high of $3,392 reached in Tuesday’s early Asian trades. The focus is back on the US JOLTS Job Openings data while trade headlines will continue to remain the primary market driver.

Gold price to keep benefiting from trade and geopolitical fears

Despite the latest retreat, Gold price will likely remain underpinned by renewed tensions over US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement and rekindling US-China trade rift.

Ever since Trump announced on Friday that he would double import tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50% in a bid to “even further secure the steel industry in the United States (US)”, the US Dollar (USD) has been on the receiving end amid renewed fears over the economy and policies uncertainty.

Further, trade concerns intensified after Trump accused China of violating its agreement with the US to mutually roll back tariffs and holding back products essential to the industrial supply chain., in a post published on Truth Social on Friday.

Moreover, Reuters reported on Monday that The Trump administration is reportedly working on delivering a final trade deal deadline set for this Wednesday.

However, early Tuesday, USD sellers seem to be taking a breather, limiting the Gold price upside. Traders could be covering their USD short positions, gearing for a slew of critical US employment data this week, with the JOLTS Job Openings Survey due later in the day.

Strong US jobs data could back the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) prudent policy approach and aid the Greenback’s recovery, impeding the renewed Gold price uptrend toward record highs.

That said, the daily technical setup for Gold price continues to indicate strong gains in the near term.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having firmly defended the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Gold price stormed through the falling trendline resistance, then at $3,346, to finish Monday at $3,382.

At the moment, Gold price is struggling yet again with $3,377, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally.

Buyers yearn for acceptance above the $3,400 threshold to resume the recent upswing toward the lifetime highs of $3,500.

Ahead of that, the May high of $3,439 must be scaled on a sustained basis.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower but holds comfortably above the midline, supporting bullish bias.

Conversely, the correction could gather steam on a decisive break below the falling trendline resistance-turned-support, now at $3,341.

The next support is seen at the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo level near $3,300.

Gold sellers could then accelerate declines toward the 50% Fibo level near $3,232 where the 50-day SMA hangs around.

Hits Three Day High

Given today’s bullish reversal signal, last Thursday’s low of $3.44 established a higher swing low within a near-term uptrend structure that is contained within the developing CD leg of a potential rising ABCD pattern. The ABCD pattern is within a potential bullish trend channel that is highlighted in light green. Support for the bearish pullback was seen last around the confluence of a 50% retracement level, the 20-Day MA, and an AVWAP level from the May swing low (A).

Price Rejected from Strong Support

Given the subsequent bullish reaction from that support zone, natural gas looks poised to challenge and possibly exceed the $3.84 lower swing high (B). A decisive breakout above $3.84 would trigger the ABCD pattern as a higher swing high would be established and a daily close above that level would confirm the breakout.

The first higher target zone is $4.08 to $4.12, consisting of the initial target for the rising ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. Potential resistance around the top line of the trend channel may also provide clues about supply and demand, particularly if it lines up with another indicator once approached by price.

Right Shoulder a Potential Barrier

If the price of natural gas continues to rise it will eventually encounter potential resistance around an interim swing high of $4.25. That swing high established the right should for a recent head and shoulders bearish reversal pattern. It marks a lower high in the bearish correction that started after the $4.90 peak in March. A violation of that bearish price structure would be bullish and provide another bullish reversal signal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver extends rally as improved sentiment and safe-haven flows fuel breakout toward YTD highs.
• RSI shows strong upside momentum; breach of $34.86 could open path to $35.00 and $37.49.
• Support seen at $34.58 and $33.69 if price pulls back from current levels.

Silver prices soar, gaining over 5% on Monday, as investors who had become risk-averse earlier pushed the grey metal higher. However, as market sentiment improved, buyers continued to drive XAG/USD higher, trading at $34.65 near year-to-date (YTD) highs.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver prices are poised to remain bullish and extend their gains to challenge the 2023 peak of $34.86. Bulls remain in charge, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), taking a steeper rise.

With that said, the next resistance for XAG/USD would be last year’s peak. A breach of the latter will expose the $35.00 level, followed by the February 29, 2012 high of $37.49. Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below the March 28 peak of $34.58, a decline towards $34.00 is likely. In the event of further weakness, the next support level would be the May 22 peak, which has since turned into support at $33.69.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

BioNTech SE’s stock price (BNTX) skidded in latest intraday trading, amid the dominance of the downward secondary in the short term, as the price failed to shake off negative pressure from the 50-day SMA, giving in to pressure, amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels. 

Therefore we expect more losses for the price, targeting the first support at $89.77, provided the resistance of $101.90 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish 

XAU/USD Current price: $3,374.30

• Fresh geopolitical and trade tensions undermined the market mood on Monday.
• Tepid United States data added to the broad weakness of the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD consolidates gains in the $3,370 region, aiming for higher highs.

Spot is on the run at the beginning of the new week, with the bright metal trading in the $3,370 region, its highest in four weeks. A worsened market mood alongside broad US Dollar (USD) weakness boosted demand for the yellow metal. Speculative interest turned risk-averse amid United States (US) President Donald Trump to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US from 25% to 50%, starting on Wednesday.

The unexpected announcement generated tensions with Beijing, which accused the US of violating the truce set a couple of weeks ago. Adding to the dismal mood, Ukraine conducted a massive drone attack on Russian strategic bombers’ airfields during the weekend.

Meanwhile, “economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the third consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction,” according to the ISM report. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 48.5 in May, down from the 48.7 posted in April and missing expectations of 49.5. The imports sub-index plunged to 39.9, the weakest level since 2009.

The week will feature US employment-related data ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. In the meantime, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their decisions on monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that buyers defended the downside at around a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,296.00. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong upward momentum far below the shorter one, as technical indicators head firmly north within positive levels, all of which supports another leg north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance. The pair is well above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction above the longer ones. Technical indicators, however, have lost their upward strength, holding on to higher ground but hinting at some consolidation before the next directional movement.

Support levels: 3,380.10 3,397.90 3,414.65

Resistance levels: 3,363.40 3,344.60 3,325.70

• Silver shoots higher after US President Trump accuses China of violating its trade agreement.
• The US Dollar plunges as tariff fears weigh on sentiment, supporting the XAG/USD.
• Silver prices advance above the 10-day SMA, climbing over 3% at the time of writing.

Silver (XAG/USD) is shining brightly on Monday, with prices rallying in response to a weaker US Dollar (USD). With the white precious metal trading over 3% higher on the day, prices have moved above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at $33.28 at the time of writing.

Market sentiment and the general mood soured over the weekend, after the US President Donald Trump accused China of violating the temporary trade agreement reached in Geneva on May 12.

In a post released on Truth Social, Trump stated that “China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” 

Although little context was provided, a Reuters article suggested that the frustration appears to stem from China’s lack of progress in fast-tracking the development of its rare earth minerals.

According to a report by Reuters on Friday, top global automotive leaders are warning about a looming shortage of rare-earth magnets, which are sourced from China. These magnets are essential components in various automotive applications, including windshield-wiper motors and anti-lock braking systems. This shortage could lead to the shutdown of car manufacturing plants in the near future.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated during an appearance on Fox News Channel that US trade negotiations with China were “a bit stalled” and that completing a deal would likely require direct engagement from both President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The renewed tensions and market jitters tend to boost demand for safe havens, such as Gold and Silver, while reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets.

Silver daily chart

Copper price opened this morning with a positive price gap, announcing its affection by strong positive pressure to reach 61%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100, which formed an important strong barrier against the bullish trading.

Note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators might assist to breach the current barrier, to expect reaching the previously achieved top near $4.8900, and surpassing it will confirm moving to a new positive station, and $5.0350 level represents the next main target in the bullish trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.7600 and $4.8900

Trend forecast: Bullish