The euro rallied a bit in the early hours here on Monday to reach the 1.18 level. The 1.18 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that, of course, has been important multiple times. And if we can break above here, it opens up a move to the 1.19 level, possibly even the 1.20 level. Short-term pullbacks will continue to find plenty of momentum, I think, perhaps trying to break out, but there are a lot of questions out there about the risk appetite, and I think that will continue to be reflected in this pair. If we break down below the 1.17 level, we probably just sit right in that consolidation area for a while.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen, but gave back the gains, and we find ourselves just sitting here. At the 200-day EMA, the Friday candlestick was a hammer. It looks like we might try to form some type of negative shooting star candle. So, I think this is a market that just really doesn’t have anywhere to be at the moment, with the 146 yen level offering support and the 149 yen level offering resistance.
Gold bounced up from the $3,630 area on Friday and is extending gains on Monday, supported by a cautious market mood and hopes of further Fed easing. The precious metal is trading at $3,720, with the following potential targets at $3,730 and $3,760.
The fundamental backdrop remains supportive. European markets have opened on a moderately negative note, as tensions remain high between Russia and its European partners, while in the Middle East, Israel’s occupation of Gaza is generating an increasing wave of opposition among Western countries.
Technical Analysis: Gold is strongly bullish but looks overextended
The technical picture, on the other hand, is sending warning messages. The daily chart shows the pair at overbought levels, after having rallied more than 12% in one month. RSI is starting to suggest some bearish divergence, and the MACD shows an impending bearish cross, which should warn buyers.
On the upside, immediate resistance is the <27.2% Fibonacci retracement of last week’s pullback, at $3,730, ahead of the 161.8% retracement of the same cycle, at $3,760. Beyond here, the $3,800 round level emerges as a potential target.
To the downside, the previous all-time high, at $3,707, might provide support ahead of the $3,615-3,630 area (September 11, 18 lows). Further down, the September 3 high and September 8 low, at $3,580, would come into focus.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/USD clings to small daily gains above 1.1750 on Monday.
The technical outlook doesn’t yet point to a buildup of bullish momentum.
Markets await comments from ECB and Fed policymakers.
Following the bearish action seen in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD corrects higher on Monday and trades above 1.1750. As investors await comments from central bank officials, the pair’s technical outlook doesn’t yet reflect a buildup of recovery momentum.
Euro Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.24%
0.42%
0.16%
-0.23%
0.75%
1.58%
-0.27%
EUR
0.24%
0.69%
0.35%
0.00%
1.03%
1.78%
-0.04%
GBP
-0.42%
-0.69%
-0.26%
-0.67%
0.34%
1.09%
-0.83%
JPY
-0.16%
-0.35%
0.26%
-0.41%
0.63%
1.41%
-0.43%
CAD
0.23%
-0.01%
0.67%
0.41%
1.09%
1.77%
-0.16%
AUD
-0.75%
-1.03%
-0.34%
-0.63%
-1.09%
0.75%
-1.09%
NZD
-1.58%
-1.78%
-1.09%
-1.41%
-1.77%
-0.75%
-1.90%
CHF
0.27%
0.04%
0.83%
0.43%
0.16%
1.09%
1.90%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/USD registered losses for three consecutive days to end the week as the US Dollar (USD) benefited from the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone on aggressive policy easing moving further.
Assessing the Fed’s policy outlook and the USD’s futures, “despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautionary tone, the FOMC has clearly shifted to a dovish stance where it sees multiple cuts, and the focus is now firmly on the employment side of the mandate,” noted ING analysts and added:
“Our call is for two more 25 basis-points cuts this year, and we see the cheapening of the Dollar’s funding cost as driving more depreciation in an already seasonally weak end of the year for the greenback.”
The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Monday. Several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches during the American trading hours. In case Fed officials reiterate that they will not commit to a steady easing of the policy, citing upside risks to inflation, the USD could stay resilient against its rivals and make it difficult for EUR/USD to gather bullish momentum.
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane and Governing Council Member Joachim Nagel will also be speaking in the second half of the day. ECB policymaker Mario Centeno said on Friday that the ECB’s next move is likely to be a rate cut, noting that he still sees inflation risks to the downside. Similar remarks from ECB officials could be negative for the Euro with the immediate reaction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend aligns as a pivot level at 1.1770. In case EUR/USD fails to clear this level, technical buyers could be discouraged. In this scenario, 1.1730 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart) could be seen as the first support level before 1.1690-1.1700 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA) and 1.1640 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1800 (static level, round level), 1.1850 (upper limit of the ascending channel) and 1.1870 (end-point of the uptrend).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The euro dropped a bit against the Japanese yen during the day on Friday, breaking below the ¥174 level. The ¥174 level is an area that previously has been resistant, as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have been watching so closely.
All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see this area as important, but the short-term pullback I think offers a bit of value that people might be willing to take advantage of.
Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan chose to hold interest rates stable, but they stopped buying ETF’s, which means they are not willing to help risk assets. That is in a roundabout way slightly tighter with monetary policy, but at the end of the day I think really what it comes down to is that the Bank of Japan is not going to be raising rates anytime soon, and therefore I think the market will continue to show the Japanese yen unless of course we get a major move to a “run to safety” type of attitude. Based on the ascending triangle, the potential target is going to be somewhere near the ¥177 level, but that doesn’t mean that we have to get there overnight.
Remember that the interest rate differential still favors the euro, although the euro isn’t the high yielding currency that I would choose based on swap to trade against the Japanese yen. From a technical analysis standpoint, it’s obvious that this is a market that is very bullish, and what I find interesting about the ascending triangle is that it not only has an up trending line but also has the 50 Day EMA sitting right at that line offering support as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I’m looking at dips as potential buying opportunities, and therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we get involved in this market to the upside yet again.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The EURJPY pair is forced to form bearish correction wave after hitting the target at 174.45, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, noticing its fluctuation near the breached barrier, forming an extra support at 173.40.
The price success to settle above the current support will provide new chance for forming bullish waves, repeating the pressure on 174.40 level, and surpassing it will make it reach the next target near 175.20, while its surrender to the negative pressures by its move below the support will force it to delay the bullish attack, forming more of the correctional trading, to reach 172.80 initially, reaching the support of the bullish channel at 171.35.
The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20
GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.3500 to start the new week.
The technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact in the near term.
Markets will pay close attention to comments from Fed officials.
After touching its highest level since early July above 1.3720 last Wednesday, GBP/USD made a sharp U-turn and suffered large losses in the second half of the week to close in negative territory. The pair holds its ground early Monday and clings to small gains at around 1.3500.
Pound Sterling Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies last 7 days. British Pound was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.25%
0.46%
0.19%
-0.19%
0.74%
1.58%
-0.23%
EUR
0.25%
0.74%
0.38%
0.06%
1.03%
1.81%
0.00%
GBP
-0.46%
-0.74%
-0.30%
-0.67%
0.29%
1.04%
-0.83%
JPY
-0.19%
-0.38%
0.30%
-0.41%
0.60%
1.37%
-0.42%
CAD
0.19%
-0.06%
0.67%
0.41%
1.04%
1.72%
-0.16%
AUD
-0.74%
-1.03%
-0.29%
-0.60%
-1.04%
0.75%
-1.06%
NZD
-1.58%
-1.81%
-1.04%
-1.37%
-1.72%
-0.75%
-1.85%
CHF
0.23%
-0.01%
0.83%
0.42%
0.16%
1.06%
1.85%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious tone on further policy easing supported the US Dollar (USD), while the Bank of England’s (BoE) expected decision to maintain the status quo failed to help Pound Sterling find demand, causing GBP/USD to remain under bearish pressure.
In assessment of the market reaction to the BoE, “regarding future decisions, the policymakers did not reveal their hand, leading to no significant changes to interest rate expectations. In short, the decision was not a major game changer for the Pound,” Commerzbank analysts said.
Later in the day, investors will pay close attention to comments from Fed officials. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets widely see the Fed opting for two more rate cuts in the remaining two policy meetings this year. Hence, a confirmation of such policy steps is unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction. In case policymakers hint that they might reassess the rate outlook if inflation data start reflecting the impact of tariffs, or if the labor market shows signs of recovery, the USD could outperform its rivals and cause GBP/USD to turn south.
On Tuesday, preliminary September Services and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the UK and the US could offer key insights into the growth outlook of respective economies.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart remains below 40 after rebounding from oversold levels, suggesting that the bearish bias remains intact and GBP/USD’s latest recovery is a technical correction rather than a reversal. Additionally, the pair remains below the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
On the downside, 1.3470 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend), aligns as the first support level before 1.3410-1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, round level). Looking north, resistance could be seen at 1.3510 (200-period SMA), 1.3530 (100-period SMA) and 1.3550 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The (silver) price surged in its last intraday trading, breaching the critical resistance level of $42.90, which represents our suggested target in our previous forecast, supported by its continuous trading above EMA50 and under full dominance for the main bullish trend on the short-term trading, and its trading alongside supportive trendline for this track, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, which might reduce the upcoming gains.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 15–19, 2025)
Get high-accuracy trading signals delivered directly to your Telegram. Subscribe to specialized packages tailored for the world’s top markets:
Full VIP signals performance report for September 15–19, 2025:
The GBPJPY pair provided new negative close in Friday’s trading below 200.45 level barrier, which forces it to form some bearish correctional trading, to settle near 199.55.
By the above image, we notice stochastic reach below 50 level, to provide the extra negative momentum, to confirm the dominance of the bearish correctional bias, which makes us keep the bearish suggestion until reaching the negative station near 198.60 and 197.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.60 and 200.40
The (Brent) price rose in its last intraday trading, in an attempt to recover some previous losses, and attempts to offload its clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicators, especially with the emergence of the positive signals from there, amid the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure around the price, and reduces the chances of its recovery on the near-term basis.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 15–19, 2025)
Get high-accuracy trading signals delivered directly to your Telegram. Subscribe to specialized packages tailored for the world’s top markets:
Full VIP signals performance report for September 15–19, 2025:
The EURJPY pair is forced to form bearish correction wave after hitting the target at 174.45, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, noticing its fluctuation near the breached barrier, forming an extra support at 173.40.
The price success to settle above the current support will provide new chance for forming bullish waves, repeating the pressure on 174.40 level, and surpassing it will make it reach the next target near 175.20, while its surrender to the negative pressures by its move below the support will force it to delay the bullish attack, forming more of the correctional trading, to reach 172.80 initially, reaching the support of the bullish channel at 171.35.
The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20
