• The US dollar initially did dip against the Japanese yen but has turned around to show signs of life during the session on Wednesday.
• All things being equal, I think this is a market that continues to see a lot of questions asked of the 145 yen level which obviously is an important large round, psychologically significant figure.
• With that being the case, I think you need to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can break above there.
• If we can in fact break above the 145 yen level, at least cleanly, then we have a situation where we will test the 50-day EMA and then perhaps continue to go higher.

Ultimately, this is a market that I believe remains sketchy and noisy, but I do favor the upside overall. If we break above the 50-day EMA, then it’s likely that we will go looking at the 148 yen level, an area that previously had been significant resistance and where we are hanging around and watching the 200-day EMA appear.

Obviously, the 200-day EMA will continue to attract attention in and of itself. And with that, I look at this market as one that is trying to get there. Whether or not we can get there quickly is a completely different story, but I do recognize that we are at least in the process of trying to form some type of double bottom, if you will. And as we have exploded to the upside from the 142 yen level in the last couple of days, I am starting to look at the 142 yen level as your floor in the market, at least at the moment.

On a Break Lower

If we were to break down below there, then you have to look at 140 yen, which has been important multiple times in the past. So, it’s not a huge surprise to see a significant amount of bullish pressure at these very low levels. The question now is, will the interest rate differential continue to favor the green back over the Japanese yen, at least as far as market action is concerned, because the interest rate differential is very large between these two currencies.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The EUR/USD forecast turned bearish after falling below 1.1300 level.
• The US court decision supported the US dollar.
• All eyes are now on the US Q1 GDP for further impetus.

The EUR/USD forecast turned bearish after falling below the key 1.1300 level, marking fresh weekly lows. at 1.1210. The downtick move stemmed from a rise in the US dollar after a US federal trade court paused the imposition of broader tariffs on imports, stating it misuse of authority under IEEPA. The decision has reduced the fears of trade war.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 100.40 due to improved risk sentiment and expected sharp rise in US bond yields. The recent court decision may provide a boost to US growth outlook and weigh on the Euro’s bullish trend.

According to ING analyst, Chris Turner, the EUR/USD is reasonably lower on US tariff news as the US growth outlook has slightly improved along with risk premium attached with the dollar. He also stated that the recent downturn move could lead to 1.1050, maintaining a broad range of 1.10 to 1.15.

Meanwhile, Trump’s delay on imposing tariffs on EU until July 09, offered some respite to the markets. However, uncertainty still persists. The ECB officials will announce policy decision next week. The consensus remains for another rate cut, some officials have turned hawkish, resisting further easing.

The recent Eurozone data added more traction to the sellers with France’s inflation slowing unexpectedly. On the other hand, the ECB policymaker and head of Slovak Central Bank, Peter kazimir was found guilty of corruption. This development has clouded the image of ECB and raised a political noise across the Europe.

On the other hand, the recent uptick move in the dollar could be temporary as the President Trump can seek alternatives to restore the tariffs which can eventually weigh on the dollar.

Today’s major economic data is US Q1 GDP which can provide further impetus to the market. The US dollar has erased some gains in anticipation of the data.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Recovery After a Pullback

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows the price remains well supported by the rising trendline. Today’s bearish move met solid support and recovered around 60 pips so far. However, the price is below 20-period SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI shows a sharp reversal from the oversold zone.

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Any upside will meet strong resistance around 1.1300 ahead of 1.1340 and then 1.1400. On the flip side, the pair may test today’s lows at 1.1210 ahead of 1.1150 and then 1.1050.

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• GBP/JPY jumps back closer to the multi-month top in reaction to the tariffs-block news.
• BoJ rate hike bets and the prevalent GBP selling bias keep a lid on any further gains.
• The setup favors bulls and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciation.

The GBP/JPY cross prolonged its weekly uptrend for the fourth straight day on Thursday and climbed to the 196.30 area during the Asian session, back closer to a multi-month peak touched earlier this May. Spot prices, however, retreat around 50 pips from the daily swing high and currently trade around the 195.85-195.80 region, up 0.40% for the day.

The US tariffs-block news led to a sharp bounce in risk trade and weighs heavily on the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, assists the GBP/JPY cross to attract some follow-through buying. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates help limit JPY losses. Furthermore, a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the British Pound (GBP) and contributes to capping the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/JPY cross recently showed some resilience below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The subsequent move-up and positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. However, bulls might wait for a sustained strength beyond the monthly swing high, around the 196.40 area, before placing fresh bets.

The GBP/JPY cross might then aim to reclaim the 197.00 round figure for the first time since January. The momentum could extend further towards the 197.40-197.50 intermediate hurdle en route to the 198.00 mark and the 198.25 region, or the year-to-date high. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

On the flip side, any further pullback could find some support and attract some dip-buyers near the 195.50-195.40 horizontal zone, which, in turn, should help limit the downside for the GBP/JPY cross near the 195.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling below the Asian session low, around the 194.85 region, might trigger some long-unwinding and drag spot prices to the 194.40-194.35 intermediate support en route to the 194.00 mark.

GBP/JPY daily chart

Currently trading at around ~1.34650, GBP/USD trades 0.32% lower in today’s session. Easing from multi-year highs made last week, cable continues to benefit from robust economic data and underlying dollar weakness.

GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today’s trading

• Seeing convincing buying pressure in Friday’s session, GBP/USD recently rallied to highs of 1.35934, a level last seen in early 2022
• Recently easing from highs, markets now look to reassess rate-cut bets from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expected to speak tomorrow

GBP/USD gains on US trade-tariff uncertainty

With Donald Trump renewing threats of US-EU tariffs over the weekend, continued uncertainty surrounding the US economy and future trade relations continues to weigh negatively on the dollar.

First threatening a 50% tariff on EU imports to be imposed June 1st, only to renege days later, frustrations in ongoing negotiations between the US and the European Union regarding trade further general ‘risk-off’ sentiment, and a general cautiousness on world equity markets.

The obvious comparison is that, unlike the United Kingdom, the United States has been unable to strike a deal with the European Union, with Trump taking a seemingly less diplomatic approach to negotiations.

While a list of trade negotiation deadlines loom, dollar upside is likely to be limited until the picture on global trade becomes clearer and, most importantly, more certain.

Better-than-expected retail sales extend GBP/USD gains

With last Friday representing cable’s best performance in over three weeks, gaining 0.89%, an unexpected rise in reported retail sales data helped boost cable pricing to three-year highs.

Beating expectations by some margin, Friday’s data showed retail sales data rising for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting increasing consumer confidence and somewhat vindicating the current Bank of England strategy on monetary policy.

The result has been a remarkable rise in sterling value versus the dollar.

US market holiday shines light on anti-dollar sentiment

With the US observing Memorial Day on Monday, lower-than-usual trading volumes did not deter GBP/USD from making further gains, ending the day 0.18% higher.

In a vacuum, this would suggest that the recent rise in GBP/USD pricing is not dependent on active US market participation, indicating that capital flows outside the US are at least somewhat influencing price action.

Markets eye Thursday speech for cues on BoE monetary policy

With this trading week noticeably sparse for UK-facing economic events, GBP/USD traders will closely monitor Bank of England commentary, which may suggest their likely next move.

While recent rises in retail sales would otherwise encourage the Bank of England to become more dovish, inflation in the United Kingdom remains uncomfortably high at 3.5% year-over-year in April.

Writing ahead of BoE Governor Bailey’s speech tomorrow, most predict rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming June decision.

A chart showing the recent price action of GBPUSD. OANDA,TradingView, 28/05/2024

GBP/USD technical analysis

• In line with Fibonacci retracements, we can expect GBP/USD to find some support at the current price. If price can stage a move upwards, bulls will likely target 1.36405, then 1.36798.

May 28, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Finds Support Near 1.1300

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was unable to make headway on Tuesday and dipped to test the 1.1300 level before a recovery to 1.1335 on Wednesday.

US data was a net positive and Wall Street posted strong gains, but longer-term doubts remain a key element.

According to ING; “If US data and Trump continue to deliver positive surprises this week, a decisive break lower is possible.”

The bank is, however, sceptical that this scenario will play out; “For now, we see 1.130 as a likely anchor, with upside risks for EUR/USD still dominant in the weeks ahead.”

Scotiabank noted; “Near-term support is expected around 1.1280 and near-term resistance is expected around 1.1420.”

Multiple dollar elements have continued to reverberate within global markets.

The US consumer confidence data recorded a strong rebound for May with a jump to 98.0 from 85.7 the previous month and well above expectations of 87.1.

According to the survey, de-escalation on US trade tariffs was a key element boosting confidence, but the frequent policy shifts are masking a lack of overall progress.

HSBC noted; “the reality is that not much is changing. Trade talks are ongoing but not yielding public breakthroughs. US monetary policy is on hold.”

There are also still concerns that underlying confidence has been damaged.

Scotiabank commented; “Although President Trump has stepped back again from the precipice of aggressive tariff action, the rather capricious appearance of policymaking may undermine global investors’ confidence in US markets at a time when the erosion of free trade, concerns over fiscal policy and the administration’s relations with the Fed are already proving challenging for investor sentiment.”

According to Danske Bank; “The Trump administration’s late-week reversal on EU tariff threats reinforces our view that broad-based US tariffs are structurally negative for the USD.”

It added While large fiscal deficits supported growth and the USD in the post-Covid period, today’s deficits – set against a more fragile global backdrop – are fuelling concerns about long-term sustainability and increased reliance on foreign capital.

MUFG takes a similar view; “We remain in the camp of “damage done” and hence continue to expect weaker economic activity ahead given the likely curtailment of business and household decision-making.”

The longer-term dollar and Euro outlook also remains a key element.

Danske added; “Markets continue to reassess the “US exceptionalism” narrative that previously underpinned USD strength.”

According to Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston; “In a way, all roads have led to a weaker USD. Higher perceived U.S. deficits have raised concerns about increased future Treasury issuance, pushing up term premium and seeing people migrate away from the USD.”

This week, ECB President Lagarde has made the case for a stronger global role for the Euro.

According to Lagarde; “The ongoing changes create the opening for a ‘global euro moment.”

She added; “The euro will not gain influence by default – it will have to earn it.”

ING commented; “If European policymakers continue to push the idea, we could see strategic long positions in the euro build even faster. Lagarde’s enthusiasm is understandable; a stronger, more global euro supports bond market stability and keeps rates lower, while nominal appreciation helps cap inflation.”

It did, however, add; “exporters are already voicing concerns about the strong euro, and national governments, especially those with stronger finances, may be less keen, as they already enjoy low borrowing costs.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/JPY retraces to near 194.50 as the Pound Sterling struggles to extend upside.
• The Japanese Yen gains as likely changes in bond composition this year have prompted a rise in bond yields.
• Traders reassess BoE dovish bets after hot UK inflation and strong Retail Sales data for April.

The GBP/JPY pair corrects to near 194.50 during European trading hours on Wednesday after refreshing an almost two-week high around 195.60 the previous day. The pair faces selling pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms after a strong run-up in the past few trading days.

However, the outlook of the Pound Sterling remains firm as traders pare bets supporting the Bank of England (BoE) to reduce interest rates again in the June policy meeting. A hotter-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and robust growth in Retail Sales data for April have forced traders to reassess BoE dovish bets.

The data released last week showed that the UK headline CPI accelerated at a faster pace to 3.5% year-over-year, and retail sales expanded strongly by 1.2% month-over-month.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly due to a sharp spike in Japan bond yields in expectations of significant changes in the bond program for the current fiscal year. A report from Reuters on Tuesday showed that Japan’s Ministry of Finance will consider tweaking the composition of its bond program, which could involve cuts to its issuance of super-long bonds.

GBP/JPY strengthens after a breakout of the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 19 high of 194.00 on an hourly timeframe. The 50-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is expected to be a key support for the pair around 194.35.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls into the 40.00-60.00 range after turning overbought above 80.00. A fresh bullish momentum would come into action when the RSI returns above 60.00.

The pair could extend its upside towards the January 7 high of 198.26 and the psychological level of 200.00 after breaking above the four-month high of 196.40.

On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the May 6 low of 190.33 will expose it to the March 11 low of 188.80, followed by the February 7 low of 187.00.

GBP/JPY hourly chart