Pressure Builds Below the 20-Day Average

Today’s action marks the second consecutive daily close below the 20-Day moving average since August 27, reinforcing signs of weakening momentum. The failure to sustain above this short-term trend line has shifted market sentiment toward sellers, increasing the odds of further tests of downside targets. The overlap of the 61.8% retracement and a 100% projected target from a falling ABCD pattern highlights $2.84 as an especially important level.

Additional Downside Targets Emerging

If $2.84 fails to hold, attention shifts toward a deeper potential support zone around $2.75. This area is reinforced by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a 127.2% extension of the same ABCD pattern, adding to its technical weight. At the same time, a falling trend channel is influencing price behavior. The channel’s midline has acted as a guide for support and resistance in recent swings, suggesting it may once again play a role in this pullback.

Lower Highs Confirm Bearish Tone

Structurally, natural gas has been carving out lower swing highs after stalling near a long-term uptrend line, which previously served as dynamic support. That resistance aligned with the 50-Day moving average, further confirming the zone’s significance. Each rebound has failed near the upper quarter line of the channel, underlining how the broader bearish channel structure is containing price activity.

Weekly Chart Adds Weight to Bearish Case

On the weekly timeframe, natural gas looks set to finish the week in the lower quarter of its range. This comes after a bearish weekly reversal pattern formed last week, which will be confirmed with a close below $2.90. Such confirmation would support the case for a continuation lower, with the $2.75 – $2.76 zone emerging as a strong candidate for the next meaningful test of support but only if the $2.84 area fails first.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Upside Targets in Focus

The next potential milestone for gold sits at $3,734, marked by a 161.8% Fibonacci extension derived from the last significant corrective swing. However, this target stands alone without reinforcement from other technical measures, suggesting that the more significant resistance zone lies higher. That zone ranges from $3,782 to $3,812 and includes at least five different technical objectives. Among them is a measured move target from the symmetrical triangle pattern that gold broke out of on August 29, adding technical weight to this area as a potential magnet for price.

Consolidation at Resistance

Even with Friday’s rebound, gold remains in the same broad zone it has occupied for the past nine sessions. A Fibonacci confluence area continues to exert influence as resistance, capping upside momentum and suggesting that further consolidation may be needed before a sustained breakout can occur. The upward slope of recent consolidation, however, shows that demand remains firm and dips continue to attract buyers.

Key Levels on the Downside

Despite the constructive outlook, caution is warranted. A drop below Thursday’s low of $3,628 would undermine Friday’s reversal and open the door to deeper retracement levels. In that case, the first downside target sits at last week’s low of $3,576, closely aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,558. A decisive decline through that area could challenge bullish conviction and shift near-term focus to a corrective phase.

Outlook

Gold’s ability to maintain momentum with a weekly closing above $3,675 further confirms strength in Friday’s bullish reversal. That will be crucial in setting the tone for next week. Sustained strength above $3,707 would shift focus toward the $3,782 – $3,812 target zone, while weakness below $3,628 would reintroduce the risk of a more extended pullback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver extends its recovery on Friday after testing support near the $41.50.
• A retest of the 14-year high at $42.97 remains on the radar for bulls.
• RSI has recovered to 57 and MACD is turning positive, signaling strengthening momentum as long as $41.50 holds.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its recovery on Friday, building on Thursday’s modest rebound after hitting its lowest level in over a week earlier this week. At the time of writing, the white metal is trading around $42.35, stabilizing above key technical levels as buyers attempt to regain control following a pullback from the 14-year high at $42.97.

On the 4-hour chart, the $41.50 area — previous breakout zone — has emerged as a key support, reinforced by repeated lower wicks showing dip-buying interest. Price is also holding above the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $42.06 and the 100-period SMA at $41.22, keeping the near-term bias constructive. A decisive break below $41.50 would risk exposing the deeper base near $40.50.

On the topside, resistance remains layered, with $42.50 acting as the next hurdle before a potential retest of the recent 14-year high at $42.97. A sustained break above that peak could open the way toward the psychological $43.50 handle, extending the broader uptrend. Until then, price action suggests a consolidation phase with an upward tilt.

Momentum signals are improving. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to 57, showing growing bullish momentum without nearing overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is turning positive, with a potential bullish crossover developing. Together, these signals suggest upside pressure could build further as long as Silver holds above the $41.50 support floor.

Natural Gas Futures Struggle at $2.90 as Storage Builds Outpace Expectations

Natural Gas (NG=F) futures extended losses into Friday, trading near $2.90/MMBtu after a steep 16.1 cent decline in the prior session. The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration report revealed an injection of 90 Bcf for the week ending September 12, well above the five-year norm of 74 Bcf and ahead of market consensus of 80 Bcf. That pushed total inventories to 3.43 Tcf, positioning stocks 6.3% above seasonal averages and weighing on sentiment. The storage surprise has placed renewed pressure on Henry Hub benchmarks, with the October contract unable to reclaim the psychological $3 handle.

Weather Models and Seasonal Transition Keep Demand Suppressed

Forecasts for late September point to milder weather across the Midwest and South, limiting air-conditioning loads while colder winter patterns have not yet materialized. This transition period has left balances soft at the same time U.S. production is averaging a heavy 106 Bcf/d, ensuring supply remains plentiful. The rollover into November contracts next week is set to shift focus toward heating demand, which typically lifts consumption into the back half of the month. Traders are watching whether these seasonal dynamics will be strong enough to offset the current surplus.

Regional Basis Markets Highlight Infrastructure Stress

Physical pricing shows wide regional divergence. At Waha hub in West Texas, gas changed hands near $1.065, while Transwestern and El Paso South Mainline both hovered below $1, reflecting severe takeaway constraints. Northwest Sumas plunged by almost $0.97 as Canadian bottlenecks eased, reinforcing just how sensitive basis levels remain to infrastructure swings. Maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland is slashing roughly 0.7 Bcf/d of feedgas demand through early October, another factor keeping spot balances heavy in the short term.

European TTF Futures Hold Near €33 on Russian Supply Concerns

Across the Atlantic, European natural gas prices have retained a bullish bias. TTF contracts settled just under €33/MWh, up 1.7% on the session, as traders position for potential acceleration of the EU’s phase-out of Russian LNG ahead of 2027. Storage in Europe stands at 81% capacity, down from 93.4% last year and below the five-year average of 87.6%. Cooler forecasts in northwest Europe may also slow injections, adding to concern about winter sufficiency and providing underlying support to TTF benchmarks. This structural risk premium continues to attract U.S. LNG cargoes, supporting export demand.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Alter Long-Term Demand Calculus

Macroeconomic policy adds another layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps this week, its first easing move of 2025, and signaled more reductions could follow. Cheaper borrowing costs could accelerate investment in LNG terminals, petrochemical facilities, and other energy-intensive projects that raise natural gas demand over the medium term. Former President Trump’s renewed calls for lower oil prices to pressure Moscow highlight how U.S. energy markets remain exposed to geopolitical swings that can spill over into natural gas dynamics.

Technical Structure Centers on $3 Resistance Zone

The $2.90 to $3 corridor has become the key battleground for Henry Hub futures. The 50-day EMA is sliding at $3.07 and capping rallies, while the 200-day EMA at $3.20 is the level technicians view as confirmation of a sustained bullish reversal. Momentum indicators remain neutral, with RSI hovering mid-range and MACD flattening, showing that traders are waiting for a catalyst. Should prices breach $2.82, bears could test $2.62 as deeper support, while a clean move through $3.20 would re-open upside targets into the mid-$3s.

Forward Curve and Positioning Reflect Seasonal Uncertainty

The forward strip shows modest gains across most U.S. hubs between September 11–17, though the Permian Basin and Canada lagged due to persistent oversupply. Hedge funds have trimmed net length in Henry Hub contracts, a sign that speculative appetite has cooled after repeated storage surprises. LNG feedgas flows remain firm near 13.2 Bcf/d, yet outages and maintenance keep the ceiling on export demand. The market is effectively in a holding pattern, waiting on either weather-driven consumption or geopolitical supply shocks to break the stalemate.

Investment Outlook for NG=F Futures

With inventories running above trend, production steady at record levels, and weather demand muted, the immediate picture for Natural Gas leans bearish. Prices holding above $2.82 will be critical to prevent a deeper slide, while the $3.20 breakout line remains the level to watch for bullish conviction. The macro backdrop of Fed easing and European supply security could shift sentiment into winter, but until then volatility is likely to remain high. Based on current fundamentals, the stance is Hold with near-term bearish bias, while strategic buyers may look to accumulate if November contracts regain momentum toward $3.20.

That’s TradingNEWS

The U.S. Dollar Index bounced to 97.801, recovering from a post-Fed low not seen since early 2022. The greenback was lifted by stronger-than-expected jobless claims data and a cautious tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who described the cut as a risk-management move rather than the start of an aggressive easing cycle.

Despite the cut, the lack of a strong dovish commitment disappointed traders betting on deeper policy easing. Still, the futures market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another cut at the Fed’s next meeting, suggesting dollar gains may be capped.

Citi Hikes Gold Forecast to $3800 on Fiscal, Structural Risks

Citi upgraded its three-month gold price forecast to $3800 from $3600, citing a mix of cyclical and structural drivers. The bank flagged U.S. labor market weakness, rising fiscal deficits, and questions about the Fed’s independence as key factors supporting higher gold prices.

In a more extreme scenario—marked by stagflation or a hard landing—Citi believes gold could spike to $4000, though they also note a downside risk to $3400 if global growth fears ease and policy normalization resumes.

The EURJPY pair formed new bullish rally, to record the initial extra target at 174.25, then bounced quickly to retest the breached barrier, which represents a new support at 173.40.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, as the price stability makes us expect renewing the bullish attempts to target new positive stations that begin at 175.20, while facing negative pressures and reaching below this support will increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track again, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching 172.80, followed by the support of the bullish channel at 171.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Bullish