Natural Gas Futures Struggle at $2.90 as Storage Builds Outpace Expectations

Natural Gas (NG=F) futures extended losses into Friday, trading near $2.90/MMBtu after a steep 16.1 cent decline in the prior session. The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration report revealed an injection of 90 Bcf for the week ending September 12, well above the five-year norm of 74 Bcf and ahead of market consensus of 80 Bcf. That pushed total inventories to 3.43 Tcf, positioning stocks 6.3% above seasonal averages and weighing on sentiment. The storage surprise has placed renewed pressure on Henry Hub benchmarks, with the October contract unable to reclaim the psychological $3 handle.

Weather Models and Seasonal Transition Keep Demand Suppressed

Forecasts for late September point to milder weather across the Midwest and South, limiting air-conditioning loads while colder winter patterns have not yet materialized. This transition period has left balances soft at the same time U.S. production is averaging a heavy 106 Bcf/d, ensuring supply remains plentiful. The rollover into November contracts next week is set to shift focus toward heating demand, which typically lifts consumption into the back half of the month. Traders are watching whether these seasonal dynamics will be strong enough to offset the current surplus.

Regional Basis Markets Highlight Infrastructure Stress

Physical pricing shows wide regional divergence. At Waha hub in West Texas, gas changed hands near $1.065, while Transwestern and El Paso South Mainline both hovered below $1, reflecting severe takeaway constraints. Northwest Sumas plunged by almost $0.97 as Canadian bottlenecks eased, reinforcing just how sensitive basis levels remain to infrastructure swings. Maintenance at Cove Point LNG in Maryland is slashing roughly 0.7 Bcf/d of feedgas demand through early October, another factor keeping spot balances heavy in the short term.

European TTF Futures Hold Near €33 on Russian Supply Concerns

Across the Atlantic, European natural gas prices have retained a bullish bias. TTF contracts settled just under €33/MWh, up 1.7% on the session, as traders position for potential acceleration of the EU’s phase-out of Russian LNG ahead of 2027. Storage in Europe stands at 81% capacity, down from 93.4% last year and below the five-year average of 87.6%. Cooler forecasts in northwest Europe may also slow injections, adding to concern about winter sufficiency and providing underlying support to TTF benchmarks. This structural risk premium continues to attract U.S. LNG cargoes, supporting export demand.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Alter Long-Term Demand Calculus

Macroeconomic policy adds another layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps this week, its first easing move of 2025, and signaled more reductions could follow. Cheaper borrowing costs could accelerate investment in LNG terminals, petrochemical facilities, and other energy-intensive projects that raise natural gas demand over the medium term. Former President Trump’s renewed calls for lower oil prices to pressure Moscow highlight how U.S. energy markets remain exposed to geopolitical swings that can spill over into natural gas dynamics.

Technical Structure Centers on $3 Resistance Zone

The $2.90 to $3 corridor has become the key battleground for Henry Hub futures. The 50-day EMA is sliding at $3.07 and capping rallies, while the 200-day EMA at $3.20 is the level technicians view as confirmation of a sustained bullish reversal. Momentum indicators remain neutral, with RSI hovering mid-range and MACD flattening, showing that traders are waiting for a catalyst. Should prices breach $2.82, bears could test $2.62 as deeper support, while a clean move through $3.20 would re-open upside targets into the mid-$3s.

Forward Curve and Positioning Reflect Seasonal Uncertainty

The forward strip shows modest gains across most U.S. hubs between September 11–17, though the Permian Basin and Canada lagged due to persistent oversupply. Hedge funds have trimmed net length in Henry Hub contracts, a sign that speculative appetite has cooled after repeated storage surprises. LNG feedgas flows remain firm near 13.2 Bcf/d, yet outages and maintenance keep the ceiling on export demand. The market is effectively in a holding pattern, waiting on either weather-driven consumption or geopolitical supply shocks to break the stalemate.

Investment Outlook for NG=F Futures

With inventories running above trend, production steady at record levels, and weather demand muted, the immediate picture for Natural Gas leans bearish. Prices holding above $2.82 will be critical to prevent a deeper slide, while the $3.20 breakout line remains the level to watch for bullish conviction. The macro backdrop of Fed easing and European supply security could shift sentiment into winter, but until then volatility is likely to remain high. Based on current fundamentals, the stance is Hold with near-term bearish bias, while strategic buyers may look to accumulate if November contracts regain momentum toward $3.20.

That’s TradingNEWS

The U.S. Dollar Index bounced to 97.801, recovering from a post-Fed low not seen since early 2022. The greenback was lifted by stronger-than-expected jobless claims data and a cautious tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who described the cut as a risk-management move rather than the start of an aggressive easing cycle.

Despite the cut, the lack of a strong dovish commitment disappointed traders betting on deeper policy easing. Still, the futures market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another cut at the Fed’s next meeting, suggesting dollar gains may be capped.

Citi Hikes Gold Forecast to $3800 on Fiscal, Structural Risks

Citi upgraded its three-month gold price forecast to $3800 from $3600, citing a mix of cyclical and structural drivers. The bank flagged U.S. labor market weakness, rising fiscal deficits, and questions about the Fed’s independence as key factors supporting higher gold prices.

In a more extreme scenario—marked by stagflation or a hard landing—Citi believes gold could spike to $4000, though they also note a downside risk to $3400 if global growth fears ease and policy normalization resumes.

The EURJPY pair formed new bullish rally, to record the initial extra target at 174.25, then bounced quickly to retest the breached barrier, which represents a new support at 173.40.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, as the price stability makes us expect renewing the bullish attempts to target new positive stations that begin at 175.20, while facing negative pressures and reaching below this support will increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track again, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching 172.80, followed by the support of the bullish channel at 171.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold bounces up from $3,630 and returns above $3,650 as the US Dollar’s rebound loses momentum.
• The Greenback drew some support from a strong decline in claims and upbeat manufacturing data.
• The broader trend remains positive, as hopes of Fed cuts will likely limit US Dollar rallies.

Gold found buyers at the $3,630 level to bounce up on Friday following a two-day reversal from all-time highs at $3,700 on Wednesday. The precious metal attracted some bids with the US Dollar recovery losing steam, and returned to levels past $3,650.

Better-than-expected US jobless claims and a strong rebound of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey provided additional support for the US Dollar’s recovery. That said,  the scope for a sharp recovery is likely to be limited with the market nearly fully pricing another Fed rate cut in October and high chances of further monetary easing in December.

Weak US employment data has boosted hopes of Fed cuts over the following months. Futures markets are broadly pricing a quarter point in each monetary policy meeting this year and some more in the first months of 2026, a view that is highly unlikely to be confirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Technical Analysis: Correcting lower from all-time highs

The technical picture shows Gold correcting from the all-time highs right above $3,700, yet with the broader upside trend intact. The Daily RSI is pulling back, but still remains at overbought levels while the MACD shows an impending bearish cross, suggesting that a deeper correction is likely.

Immediate support remains at the $3,615-3,630 area (September 11, 18 lows). Further down, the September 3 high and September 8 low, at $3,580, come into focus ahead of the September 8 low, at $3,500.

To the upside, Thursday’s high, near $3,675 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the mentioned all-time high, at $3,710. Beyond here, the 161.8% extension of last week’s rally, near $3,740 emerges at the next upside target.

The EURJPY pair formed new bullish rally, to record the initial extra target at 174.25, then bounced quickly to retest the breached barrier, which represents a new support at 173.40.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, as the price stability makes us expect renewing the bullish attempts to target new positive stations that begin at 175.20, while facing negative pressures and reaching below this support will increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track again, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching 172.80, followed by the support of the bullish channel at 171.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Bullish