GBP/USD outlook: Initial supports hold pullback for now

Cable remains at the back foot on Wednesday after Tuesday’s pullback from new multi-month high (1.3593) cracked psychological 1.3500 support. Price dipped to 1.3561 this morning, but quick bounce to 1.3500 zone points to headwinds that fresh bears face.

Today’s action was so far shaped in Doji candle (indecision) with short-lived probe below initial Fibo support at 1.3486 (23.6% of 1.3195/1.3593 upleg) adding to potential bear-trap formation, in scenario of very shallow pullback preceding fresh attempts to extend larger uptrend. Read more…

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling sellers could show interest with break below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades in a narrow channel slightly above 1.3500 on Wednesday after closing in negative territory and snapping a six-day winning streak on Tuesday. The pair’s technical outlook is yet to point to a bearish reversal but sellers could take action if the pair flips 1.3500 into resistance.

The US Dollar (USD) outperformed its rivals on Tuesday and weighed on GBP/USD, supported by an improving sentiment around the US economy on the back of upbeat data releases. Read more…

The power of Elliott Wave blue boxes: GBP/USD’s perfect bounce

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of GBPUSD. In which, the rally from 13 January 2025 low is unfolding as an impulse sequence & showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in GBPUSD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas.

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 5.09.2025 Asia update. In which, the rally to $1.3443 high completed wave 1 & made a pullback in wave 2. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag correction where wave ((a)) ended at $1.3257 low. Then a bounce to $1.3403 high-ended wave ((b)) & started the next leg lower in wave ((c)) towards $1.3216- $1.3100 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum. Read more…

• The US dollar against the Japanese yen the US dollar has a rallied a bit after initially dropping against the Japanese yen on Tuesday.
• This is interesting because the momentum has shifted quite drastically.
• People really wanted to buy the dollar as we saw the US dollar strengthen against multiple currencies such as the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen.

So maybe it’s a move away from the Pacific at the moment. The 145 yen level above will end up being resistance from what I can see. And if we can break above there, then that would be a very bullish sign. Keep in mind that we have the 50 day EMA just above that area and dropping. So, I think you’ve got a situation where there is a lot of potential selling pressure there.

The Technical Picture

If we can clear the 50 day EMA, that could open up the dollar for a much bigger move against the Japanese yen. Keep in mind, the interest rate differential still favors the US dollar massively and the oversold condition of course does as well. In other words, this looks a lot like a rebound play like I have been talking about recently with the double bottom at 140 yen.

If we break down below the 142 yen level, then we will revisit that crucial 140 yen level. I think ultimately, we’ve got a situation where when you look at the longer term charts, 140 yen is just massive in its implications. And now we’re trying to turn things around. Breaking above the 145 yen level opens up the possibility of 148 yen and then eventually 150 yen. I do think this is going to be very noisy, but we are getting to a point where the Bank of Japan is going to have to step in and buy Japanese bonds. In other words, quantitative easing. Quantitative easing is typically poor for the currency.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has been somewhat sideways against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday as we threatened the 145 yen level, which of course is a large, round, figure but an area that has been important more than once. The 50 day EMA is dropping towards that 145 yen level, so getting over that indicator would be very bullish.

In the short term, I think we are just simply going sideways, waiting to see what happens next. I also recognize that the 142 yen level is an area that a lot of people would look at as important. And if anything, I think that a breakdown below there has us testing the previous triple bottom at 140 yen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has dropped a little bit during the early hours against the US dollar, although we have bounced since the beginning of the session. The 200 day EMA looks as if it is trying to offer support underneath, right along with the 0.64 level, the 0.635 zero level underneath there is the floor in the area that I think is the current consolidation. The Monday candlestick, which was Memorial Day in the United States, being broken above would be a very bullish sign and could open up the possibility of a move up to 0.67.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price began moving between Fibonacci correction levels that were measured from the price decline from $5.320 reaching to the bottom at $4.000, to notice its confinement between 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, which represents an extra barrier against the bullish attempts, while 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100 represents a barrier against the bullish rally. 

The continuation of the price fluctuations bearishly and forming an extra strong barrier at $4.8900 level, we will return to prefer the negativity in the near trading, to expect reaching the moving average 55 at $4.5650, then attempting to press on $4.5000, while surpassing the bearish scenario requires positive closes above $4.8900 level in the near trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5600 and $4.7400

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price began moving between Fibonacci correction levels that were measured from the price decline from $5.320 reaching to the bottom at $4.000, to notice its confinement between 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, which represents an extra barrier against the bullish attempts, while 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100 represents a barrier against the bullish rally. 

The continuation of the price fluctuations bearishly and forming an extra strong barrier at $4.8900 level, we will return to prefer the negativity in the near trading, to expect reaching the moving average 55 at $4.5650, then attempting to press on $4.5000, while surpassing the bearish scenario requires positive closes above $4.8900 level in the near trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5600 and $4.7400

Trend forecast: Bearish

May 28, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: The “Trend for GBPUSD is Bullish”

Contrasting confidence surveys helped trigger a dollar rebound on Tuesday with European currencies also on the defensive, but investment banks are not convinced there will be a sustained recovery.

After hitting 3-year highs near 1.3600 late last week, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate retreated to below 1.3500 to trade around 1.3480 on Wednesday.

Scotiabank remains bullish on GBP/USD, although the dip below 1.3500 will cause some concern.

According to Chief FX strategist Shaun Osborne; “The trend for GBPUSD is bullish, given the sequence of higher lows and higher highs, as well as the recent push to fresh multiyear highs.

He added; “We look to near-term support at 1.35 and near-term resistance at 1.36.”

The latest US data recorded a strong rebound in consumer confidence for May with a jump to 98.0 from 85.7 previously and well above consensus forecasts of 87.1.

The expectations Index surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.

According to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards.”

She noted that confidence in the stock market rebounded strongly and added; “However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

US durable goods orders declined 6.3% for April, but markets expected a deeper decline of 7.6%.

US data will continue to be monitored closely.

According to ING more good news will be required to reverse underlying dollar losses; “Our view is that the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside for the dollar due to deficit concerns and trade uncertainty, unless US data comes in convincingly stronger than expected.”

As far as the UK is concerned, the CBI retail sales index dipped to -27 for May from -8 in April and retailers expect a further slide to -37 for June while confidence dipped at the fastest rate for five years.

CBI lead Economist Ben Jones commented; “This was a fairly downbeat survey and highlights some of the challenges facing the retail and wider distribution sector. In contrast to other recent retail data, this survey suggests parts of the sector are still struggling with fragile consumer demand.”

Scotiabank noted little change in Bank of England pricing which may cushion the Pound; “rate expectations remain steady, with markets pricing a minimal chance of a 25bpt cut in June and 39bpts of easing by December.”

Markets continued to debate the wider dollar outlook amid the on-going focus on trade following President Trump’s quick reversal of last Friday’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1st.

Commerzbank FX analyst Michael Pfister expects further volatility; “One thing should be clear after Friday’s announcement: the brief respite from tariffs that we enjoyed was only temporary. We are likely to face more turbulent days and weeks ahead precisely because the 90-day suspension of higher reciprocal tariffs is coming to an end.”

Danske Bank is also bearish on the dollar; “We remain medium-term USD bearish and expect renewed downside pressure in the weeks ahead. Fiscal concerns, trade policy uncertainty, and a fragile global risk environment could continue to erode the greenback’s appeal.”

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