• Gold price remains vulnerable near monthly lows below $3,200 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar snaps the overnight rebound ahead of key US data and Powell’s speech.
• Will Gold price defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155 as RSI stays bearish?

Gold price is looking to extend the previous day’s over 2% sell-off early Thursday. The yellow metal remains vulnerable near monthly lows, trading below $3,200, as it awaits the high-impact US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.  

Gold price at the mercy of US data and geopolitics

A negative shift in risk sentiment in Asian trades on Thursday seems to be exerting renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), helping Gold price pause its decline at the moment.

Traders are turning cautious and refraining from placing directional bets on the Greenback and Gold price before the release of the US PPI inflation and Retail Sales data, which could significantly impact the markets’ expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Retail volumes could see a big boost from frontloading to get ahead of US tariffs impact, while the US PPI inflation is set to decline to 2.5% over the year in April. Markets are pricing in about 53 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cut this year, with a probability of a 25 bps rate reduction in September standing at about 50%, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.

The increased odds of fewer Fed rate cuts continue to act as a headwind to the non-yielding Gold price, even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled slightly in April. Annually, US CPI rose 2.3% in the same period, compared to a forecast of 2.4%.

Gold price also bears the brunt of receding US recession fears, courtesy of the trade truce between the world’s two largest economies – the US and China. Furthermore, optimism over US-South Korea trade talks and expectations of a US-Iran nuclear deal keep the traditional safe-haven Gold price under pressure.

However, it remains to be seen if the Gold price continues its descent, as risk sentiment could deteriorate further if the upcoming Ukraine-Russia peace talks turn sour. Weaker-than-expected US PPI and Retail Sales data could rekindle dovish Fed expectations and provide the much-needed support to Gold price.

Additionally, Gold price could draw support from rising tensions over the US deficit after Treasury reported a $1.049 trillion budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal 2025, which started October 1, up 23%, or $194 billion, from a year earlier. 

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains exposed to further downside risks so long as the price stays below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,308.

Currently, the yellow metal is challenging the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,155.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding below the midline, near 44, indicating more downside potential.

However, if buyers manage to defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $3,308 cannot be ruled out.  

Further up, the falling trendline resistance at $3,419 will come into play.  

A sustained break below the 50-day SMA support could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the 100-day SMA at $2,972

Ahead of that, the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072 would be tested.

• Gold price recovers some lost ground to around $3,180 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Easing tensions in the global trade war undermines the Gold price. 
• US April Retail Sales and PPI reports will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,180 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the yellow metal might be capped in the near term due to better risk appetite and progress in trade talks. 

The precious metal remains on the defensive as tension eases in the global trade war, pushing investors away from safe-haven demand. The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%.

“Overall it’s an improved risk sentiment that for now has reduced gold’s appeal,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

A top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, said late Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with US President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. These positive developments contribute to the Gold’s downside. 

However, trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks could help limit the Gold’s losses. Traders will keep an eye on the release of the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for April later on Thursday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak. 

• XAG/USD pressured by higher US Treasury yields and growing belief Fed will hold rates steady.
• Price consolidates between $32.00 support and $32.73 resistance; momentum favors bears with RSI tilting lower.
• Break below 100-day SMA at $31.91 opens path to $31.30 and $31.00; upside capped by $33.00 and $33.68.

Silver price fell 2% on Wednesday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields as investors seemed confident that the US Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $32.20, unchanged as the Asian session begins.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price is set to consolidate within the $32.00 – $33.00 range, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.73 and on the downside by the 100-day SMA at $31.91.

From a momentum standpoint, sellers are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays. However, price action dictates that bears must clear the $32.00 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA to aim for lower prices. In that outcome, XAG/USD’s next support would be the 200-day SMA at $31.30. A breach of the latter will expose the $31.00 figure, followed by the latest cycle low seen at $28.33, the April 7 low.

Conversely, if XAG/USD clears the 50-day SMA, the grey metal would be poised to test $33.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the April 24 swing high at $33.68 ahead of the $34.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

XAU/USD Current price: $3,187.31

• Risk appetite eased, but investors keep dropping safe-haven assets.
• Thursday will bring some interesting macroeconomic figures from major economies.
• XAU/USD trades at fresh one-month lows, aiming to extend its near-term slide.

Gold prices are down on Wednesday with the bright metal trading at its lowest since mid-April. The XAU/USD pair accelerated its slide during American trading hours, piercing the $3,200 mark, as investors keep moving away from safe-haven assets. Despite risk appetite receding on Wednesday, investors are less concerned about global growth and a potential United States (US) recession, given the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China.

Meanwhile, speculative interest kept digesting US inflation data. The slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April reminded investors of the “hawkish” Federal Reserve’s stance. As a result, Wall Street trades mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 posting modest intraday advances and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down for a second consecutive day.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar remained scarce, but Thursday will bring Australian monthly employment figures, an update on the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product, and the US April Producer Price Index (PPI).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it fell further below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg lower. The 100 and 200 SMAS keep advancing, yet are too far below the current level to be relevant.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The pair trades below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA about to cross below the 200 SMA. The latter stands at $3,232, providing relevant resistance in the case of a recovery. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength but hold within negative levels, reflecting the absence of buying interest.

Support levels: 3,173.80 3,158.40 3,142.65

Resistance levels: 3,198.20 3,215.80 3,232.10

• Silver price plunges to near $32.15 as 90-day US-China trade truce dampens the demand for safe-haven assets.
• Both the US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115%.
• Investors await Fed Powell’s speech for fresh monetary policy guidance.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down over 1% to near $32.15 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has fizzled out, with the United States (US) and China aiming to avert a more than a month-long trade war.

On Monday, Washington and Beijing agreed to lower import duties by 115% for 90 days, which reduced tariffs on them to 10% and 30%, respectively, after a two-day meeting in Switzerland. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that Washington doesn’t intend to decouple with China but wants to bring medicine, semiconductor, and other strategic industries home.

The white metal outperformed when the world’s two largest powerhouses entered a trade war after Beijing announced counter-tariffs against reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in April.

Additionally, easing inflationary pressures have also diminished the demand for Silver. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed on Tuesday that the headline inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest level seen in over four years.

Going forward, the next trigger for the Silver price will be the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. Investors would like to know whether Powell has turned dovish on the interest rate outlook after soft inflation data and a temporary US-China trade truce.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. The chart pattern reflects indecisiveness among market participants. The near-term trend of the white metal is bearish as it trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $32.70.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver four-hour chart

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• Gold trades below key $3,200 support as bearish pressure builds after recent highs.
• XAU/USD consolidates within a bullish pennant, signaling potential trend continuation if support holds.
• A surge in momentum below $3,200 may trigger a deeper retracement toward key Fibonacci levels.

Gold prices remain under pressure as investors reassess the interest rate outlook and digest mixed signals from recent US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 2.23% on the day, trading below $3,200, extending a week-to-date decline of 4.26%. 

The pullback reflects uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance, as softer inflation data clash with firm labor market conditions. This macro backdrop has kept Gold range-bound just below its all-time high, with traders looking for fresh direction.

Gold bears test bullish pennant support

On the daily chart, Gold has formed a bullish pennant, a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential resumption of the prevailing uptrend. The April surge forms the flagpole, while current price action is consolidating within converging trendlines, indicating tightening market conditions and indecision among market participants.

However, the integrity of the pattern is now under pressure. Price has slipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,316.20, reflecting short-term weakness. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 47.13, pointing to neutral-to-bearish momentum. These developments suggest that the bullish setup may be faltering.

The immediate focus is on the horizontal support at $3,200, which marks the lower boundary of the pennant. With prices currently below this level, a confirmed break would invalidate the pattern and likely trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, a move above $3,300, particularly if it clears the descending trendline resistance, would reaffirm the bullish bias and potentially open the path to new highs.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart

Gold slips below $3,200 as bullish momentum fades

From a broader perspective, the weekly chart shows that Gold remains in a consolidation phase following its ascent to a record high of $3,500 in April. This advance was underpinned by safe-haven demand and market expectations of future interest rate cuts. However, the rally was quickly met with profit-taking, evidenced by a long upper shadow on the weekly candle — a signal of rejection and growing resistance.

Since that peak, Gold has traded within a narrow horizontal band between $3,200 and $3,300, representing a pause in the uptrend rather than a full reversal. The long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by an ascending trendline originating from the January low. Importantly, price is still holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,291, drawn from the January low to the April high.

Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart

While the broader trend favors the bulls, the near-term outlook hinges on how price behaves within the pivotal $3,200–$3,300 range.

A decisive breakout above $3,300, especially if accompanied by rising momentum and a break of descending trendline resistance, would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In this scenario, Gold could retest the $3,450–$3,500 area.

A confirmed breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the pennant structure and expose Gold to deeper retracements, with support levels at $3,161 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $3,057 (50.0%) offering potential downside targets.

Until a breakout occurs, Gold is likely to remain range-bound, with short-term direction dictated by incoming macroeconomic data and Fed policy signals.