The (USDJPY) price declined in its recent intraday trading, affected by the stability of the current resistance level at 148.13, gathering the gains of its last rises, attempting to gain positive momentum that might assist it to keep the solid bullish correctional wave, besides its attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signal from it.

The domination of the bullish correctional trend supports the price, accompanied by its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the resistance at 148.13, to target the next resistance at 150.00.

Crude oil futures tumbled over the past week, falling more than 6% as concerns over weakening global demand and a resurgent supply outlook weighed on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly hit a low of $56.39 before recovering to $59.24 by Thursday’s close. While dip-buying provided short-term support, the underlying market tone remains distinctly bearish as fundamental pressures intensify.

China Demand Slowdown Fuels Bearish Sentiment

Fresh economic data from China delivered a major blow to oil bulls. The country’s official manufacturing PMI slumped to 49.0 in April, signaling contraction and raising alarm over the health of the world’s largest crude importer. Of particular concern was the new export orders index, which plunged to its weakest level since 2012 outside of pandemic anomalies. Analysts responded by slashing full-year growth forecasts to just 3.5%, casting doubt on sustainable Chinese demand.

Though China’s March crude imports surged, analysts argue this was driven more by pre-sanctions stockpiling than any uptick in consumption. With Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures struggling to gain traction, traders are increasingly skeptical of China’s ability to sustain meaningful crude demand growth in the near term.

Trade War Escalation Undermines Global Oil Demand Expectations

U.S.-China trade tensions are exacerbating the fragile demand picture. A fresh round of tariffs and retaliatory measures has heightened fears of a global…

Crude oil futures tumbled over the past week, falling more than 6% as concerns over weakening global demand and a resurgent supply outlook weighed on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly hit a low of $56.39 before recovering to $59.24 by Thursday’s close. While dip-buying provided short-term support, the underlying market tone remains distinctly bearish as fundamental pressures intensify.

China Demand Slowdown Fuels Bearish Sentiment

Fresh economic data from China delivered a major blow to oil bulls. The country’s official manufacturing PMI slumped to 49.0 in April, signaling contraction and raising alarm over the health of the world’s largest crude importer. Of particular concern was the new export orders index, which plunged to its weakest level since 2012 outside of pandemic anomalies. Analysts responded by slashing full-year growth forecasts to just 3.5%, casting doubt on sustainable Chinese demand.

Though China’s March crude imports surged, analysts argue this was driven more by pre-sanctions stockpiling than any uptick in consumption. With Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures struggling to gain traction, traders are increasingly skeptical of China’s ability to sustain meaningful crude demand growth in the near term.

Trade War Escalation Undermines Global Oil Demand Expectations

U.S.-China trade tensions are exacerbating the fragile demand picture. A fresh round of tariffs and retaliatory measures has heightened fears of a global slowdown, with the U.S. economy already contracting in Q1—the first quarterly drop in three years. Analysts warn that President Trump’s tariff strategy is significantly disrupting global trade flows and could push the global economy toward recession, directly pressuring oil consumption.

Barclays and other banks have already downgraded oil demand projections, with Brent forecasts reduced by $4 to $70 per barrel. As confidence in a robust economic recovery falters, so too does support for higher oil prices.

EIA Reports Mixed Inventory Data as Supply Stays Ample

On the supply front, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data painted a mixed but largely bearish picture. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels last week—defying analyst expectations for a build of 429,000 barrels. However, inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose by 682,000 barrels, and distillate stockpiles increased by 900,000 barrels, against forecasts for a draw.

Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected—falling 4 million barrels—but refinery activity continued to ramp up, with crude runs rising by 189,000 bpd and utilization climbing to 88.6%. Net U.S. crude imports also fell sharply by 663,000 bpd, pointing to a refined product market that is still structurally oversupplied despite headline crude draws.

OPEC+ Output Plans Keep Pressure on Prices

The broader supply outlook continues to tilt bearish. Several OPEC+ producers are reportedly pressing for accelerated output increases in June, as frustration mounts over internal quota breaches by members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leader, has signaled it can tolerate prolonged low prices and is unwilling to cut production further—signaling a strategic pivot toward defending market share over price.

Russia, while less aggressive, is unlikely to block moderate increases. With OPEC+ still holding back over 5 million bpd and internal cohesion fraying, traders are bracing for a more aggressive unwind of production cuts that could flood an already soft market with excess barrels.

Geopolitical Risks Offer Only Temporary Relief

Heightened geopolitical tension around Iran briefly lifted crude prices midweek. WTI and Brent rebounded nearly 2% on Thursday after President Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil. The comments followed a postponed round of nuclear talks, adding to uncertainty over Middle East supply flows.

Analysts estimate that effective enforcement of these sanctions could remove up to 1.5 million bpd from global supply. However, this potential disruption is being counterbalanced by OPEC+ production flexibility and rising inventories, limiting the upside potential for prices driven by geopolitics alone.

Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $71.64 will change the main trend to up. The minor trend is also down. A trade through $64.87 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The long-term range is $52.45 to $84.90. Its 50% level is $68.67. This is major resistance. Trading on the bearish side of this key level is also a sign of weakness. Additional resistance is the 52-week moving average at $68.79.

The short-term range is $71.64 to $54.48. Its pivot at $63.06 is controlling the near-term direction. Last week, sellers drove the market to its weakside, triggering the sharp break.

The minor range is $54.48 to $64.87. Its pivot is $59.67. Crude oil is currently on the weakside of this indicator.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending May 9 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $59.67.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $59.67 will signal the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough momentum, we could see a possible near-term rally into the major pivot at $63.06.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $59.67 will indicate the presence of sellers. This will leave the market vulnerable to a plunge into the April low at $54.48.

Bearish Oil Prices Forecast as Supply-Demand Balance Breaks Down

The fundamental backdrop for crude oil remains bearish. Demand is deteriorating under the weight of China’s economic slowdown and trade war escalation, while supply resilience from OPEC+ and the U.S. continues to pressure prices. The latest EIA data, despite some bullish headlines, confirms ample domestic supply and robust refining activity.

However, the market remains prone to short-covering rallies—especially around geopolitical flashpoints such as Iranian sanctions or surprise OPEC+ maneuvers. These moves may provide temporary relief, but without a sustained improvement in demand or a decisive policy shift from major producers, they are unlikely to change the overall direction.

Traders should maintain a cautious stance. Unless WTI reclaims and holds above $59.67 this week on the back of stronger fundamentals, the oil prices forecast continues to favor further downside. With structural imbalances deepening, rallies may offer better opportunities to sell than signals of a lasting recovery.

Although the market may be vulnerable to short-covering rallies as it nears value areas, the longer-term trend will remain decisively lower as long as it remains under the 52-week moving average at $68.78.

The GBPJPY pair continued forming bullish trading, to face 23.6%Fibonacci correction level at 159.80, forming the previously suggested main target, to notice forming mixed trading due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, which makes us prefer the domination of the sideways bias temporarily until breaching the current barrier, which allows it to target new positive stations that might begin at 196.60.

While the failure to breach the barrier might assist the price to activate the bearish correctional track, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching 193.85 followed by 193.30 level, to close the last price gap.

The expected trading range for today is between 194.40 and 196.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

The (USDJPY) price declined in its recent intraday trading, affected by the stability of the current resistance level at 148.13, gathering the gains of its last rises, attempting to gain positive momentum that might assist it to keep the solid bullish correctional wave, besides its attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signal from it.

The domination of the bullish correctional trend supports the price, accompanied by its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the resistance at 148.13, to target the next resistance at 150.00.

• Gold price consolidates above $3,200, near one-week lows ahead of US CPI data.
• The US Dollar retreats as markets weigh the US-China trade truce and Fed easing bets.
• Gold price cracked the 21-day SMA support, but buyers refuse to give up yet.  

Gold price has managed to defend the $3,200 mark again, consolidating Monday’s 3% slump early Tuesday. Gold sellers take a breather as traders await the high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to drive the next trading impetus.

Gold price eyes US CPI data for some reprieve

The gold price is showing some fresh signs of life in Asian trading this Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back after a strong performance following news of a highly anticipated US-China trade truce.

Following the weekend’s trade talks in Geneva, both sides agreed that the US would reduce levies on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% during a 90-day negotiation period, and China would lower duties from 125% to 10%.

Risk flows intensified amid optimism about the China trade deal, easing US recession fears and reducing bets for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year, which in turn powered the USD’s ongoing recovery at the expense of the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

Additionally, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, along with optimism ahead of Thursday’s Russia-Ukraine peace talks, contributed to the downside in the Gold price.

In Tuesday’s trading so far, USD sellers appear to have regained control, as investors remain wary of the prospects for a permanent thaw in the US-China trade war. Fanning these concerns, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said late Monday that China has agreed to remove countermeasures. However, if things don’t work out, China tariffs can be reinstated.

Furthermore, traders resort to profit-taking on their USD longs heading into the US CPI showdown, thereby capping the downside of the Gold price.

The next directional move in the bright metal hinges on the outcome of the US inflation data release. Markets are expecting the headline annual US CPI to rise 2.4% in April, at the same pace as in March. The core CPI inflation is set to remain at 2.8% over the year in the same period.

An upside surprise to the CPI figures would double down on the renewed hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed, bolstering the USD rally while fuelling a fresh decline in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. On the other hand, an unexpected slowdown in the US CPI growth could revive expectations of more than two Fed rate cuts, lending support to the bullion.

However, any headlines from the Trump administration regarding potential trade deals with the US’ major trading partners could outweigh the market reaction to the US CPI data, driving the Gold price action.

Speeches from Fed policymakers will also be closely scrutinized.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price cracked the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,313 on a daily closing basis on Monday, opening the door for further downside.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also turned bearish after closing below the midline for the first time since early April.

At the time of this press, the leading indicator is flirting with the midline, near 49, as buyers vie for control.

Thus, it remains to be seen if a hotter-than-expected US CPI data fuel a fresh leg down in Gold price toward the 50-day SMA at $3,145.

The next healthy support levels are seen at the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072.

In case the US CPI data surprises to the downside, Gold price could recapture the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance, now at $3,311. Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the falling trendline resistance at $3,430, where the intermittent resistance aligns.

A sustained move above that level will open the door toward the record high of $3,500. 

• Gold price trades in negative territory around $3,235 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• US and China agreed to de-escalate their trade war by lowering import tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days. 
• Traders brace for the US April CPI inflation report, which is due later on Tuesday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,235 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive due to a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher US yields, and optimism on the US-China trade deal. Later on Tuesday, traders will take more cues from the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Improved risk sentiment following the announcement of a temporary deal between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs has weighed on the safe-haven asset, like the Gold price. The US will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145%, and Chinese duties on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125%. The fresh measures are effective for 90 days.

“The de-escalation of tensions between China and the US is reducing the demand for safe haven assets like gold,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at Swiss bank and London bullion clearer UBS.

Gold traders brace for the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday, which might offer some hints about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in April, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 2.8% YoY in the same report period.

Swap markets have priced in the Fed’s first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut for the September meeting, and they expect two additional rate reductions towards the end of the year. Last week, they indicated three cuts this year, with a change likely as soon as July.  

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that operations against Pakistan have only been kept in abeyance, and the future will depend on their behaviour. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, shortly after Trump urged him to “immediately” accept the Russian leader’s offer to hold peace talks in Turkey. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal.

Gold price retains positive bias in the longer term

Gold price trades on a negative note on the day. According to the daily timeframe, the constructive outlook of the precious metal remains intact, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. However, further consolidation ot temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier to watch is $3,347, the high of May 9. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to $3,432, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the all-time high of $3,500.

In the bearish case, the $3,200 psychological level acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. The additional downside filter emerges at $3,142, the high of April 2.