• Gold price trades sideways around $3,550 as investors await key US NFP data for August.
• The US Dollar trades lower ahead of key US labor market data.
• Economists expect the US economy to have added 75K fresh workers in August.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range around $3,350 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Investors will pay close attention to the US official labor market data as it will influence market expectations for the interest rate outlook. Fed dovish expectations intensified in early August after the July’s NFP report showed a significant revision in employed figures of May and June on the downside.

Lower interest rates by the Fed improves demand for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Economists expect US employers to have hired 75K fresh workers, almost in line with the July’s reading of 73K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have accelerated to 4.3% from the former release of 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 3.7%, against 3.9% in July, with monthly figures rising steadily by 0.3%.

Ahead of the US NFP data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 98.00. Technically, lower US Dollar (USD) makes the Gold price an attractive bet for investors.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price’s rally hit pause after posting a fresh all-time high near $3,580 on Wednesday. The yellow metal strengthened after a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern formed on a daily timeframe.

The near-term trend of the Gold price is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slops higher around $3,436.70.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 75.00. A corrective move in the Gold price looks likely as the momentum oscillator turns overbought.

Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of $3,600 would be the key hurdle for the pair.

Gold daily chart

The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday levels, amid the dominance of the bearish corrective trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive bias line for this track, accompanied by the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure on the price, to approach from the key support at $4,250, preparing to break it. On the other hand, we notice the emergence of positive signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, which might reduce the upcoming losses.

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• Silver price may approach $41.47, the highest since September 2011.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index suggests Silver is overbought, but the trend stays strong.
• The nine-day EMA of $40.17 may act as the primary support.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers ground after registering more than 1% losses in the previous session, trading around $40.80 per troy ounce during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the price of the precious metal rises upwards within an ascending channel pattern, strengthening the bullish market bias.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 70 level, strengthening the bullish bias. The momentum indicator suggests that Silver is trading in overbought territory, yet the prevailing uptrend remains strong with buyers maintaining control. Additionally, the XAG/USD pair is trading above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is strengthening.

On the upside, the XAG/USD pair may test $41.47, the highest since September 2011, reached on September 3, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $42.00. A decisive break above this key resistance zone would strengthen the bullish bias and pave the way for the metal to approach the psychological level of $43.00.

The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of $40.16, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around $39.60. A break below the channel would weaken the bullish sentiment and put downward pressure on the Silver price to reach the 50-day EMA of $38.14. Further losses would undermine medium-term momentum, pushing the XAG/USD pair toward the three-month low of $35.80, last seen on July 1.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

• Silver price drifts higher to around $40.85, up 0.45% on the day. 
• Expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates later this month support the Silver price. 
• Traders brace for the US August Nonfarm Payrolls report later on Friday.

The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers near $40.85 during the Asian trading hours on Friday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The white metal receives support from the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year. Traders await the release of the highly-anticipated US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later on Friday for fresh impetus. 

Data released on Thursday showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims increased more than expected last week. Additionally, the ADP National Employment Report revealed that US private payrolls increased less than expected in August. 

These reports indicated softening labor market conditions, reinforcing the Fed rate reduction expectation. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and lifts the USD-denominated commodity price.  Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding white metal. 

Additionally, geopolitical tensions might contribute to the white metal’s upside, as it is considered a safe-haven asset. The US is looking to pressure buyers of Russian crude to push Moscow into agreeing to a truce in Ukraine. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Tuesday that the US “will be examining sanctions on Russia very closely this week” due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.  

The US NFP report will be closely watched later on Friday. This reading could offer some hints about the US interest rate path. Economists forecast to see 75,000 job additions in August. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could boost the Greenback and drag the Silver price lower in the near term. 

Indicators Point to Ongoing Strength

Momentum has been building since last week’s bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern. That advance was reinforced by a reclaim of several key resistance levels, including the 20-Day moving average. If today’s low of $3.02 is broken, natural gas could revisit support near the long-term anchored VWAP, now at $2.96, with further downside risk toward the 20-Day moving average at $2.89. For now, though, the market continues to trade well above those levels, suggesting that buyers remain in control.

Watching the 50-Day Average

The 50-Day moving average is a critical pivot. A sustained advance and daily close above this average would open the door for a rally through the July swing high of $3.19 and potentially toward the 200-Day average, now near $3.50. Conversely, another rejection here would not be surprising given the nearly 20% rally off the recent $2.62 low. A brief consolidation or pullback would provide a healthier setup for continuation, rather than a straight-line advance.

Weekly Confirmation in Play

On the larger timeframe, natural gas continues to show signs of strength. Last week produced a wide-ranging bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, supported by a bullish reversal confirmation this week. A weekly close above last week’s high of $3.02 would cement the breakout and bolster the case for a push through current resistance. That confirmation, coupled with strong price behavior above the AVWAP and 20-Day average, underscores improving demand.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price touched $4.5950 yesterday, to approach from the initial positive target, which forces it to form sideways fluctuation, due to its neediness to the positive momentum by the stability of stochastic with the oversold level.

While the stability of the price is within the bullish track, by moving away from the extra support at $4.2600, by providing positive momentum by the moving average 55, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to expect surpassing $4.6200 level and reaching the next target near $4.7500.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4200 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish