Created on April 30, 2025

• The British pound pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we are hanging around the 1.34 level.
• The 1.34 level has been important more than once.
• And I think at this point in time, it does make a certain amount of sense that we see a lot of back and forth.
• The market is starting to suggest that maybe they could break out to the upside. This is what momentum over the last few months may suggest, but we have work to do.

And the candlestick from the Monday session was rather impressive. That suggests that we have the ability to eventually break out to the upside and maybe even go as high as the 1.3675 level where we had a resistance barrier. On the other hand, this is an area that has been important multiple times in the past. And if we pull back from here, it’s likely that we could drop down pretty nastily. The 1.32 level I think is support though. So, it’s really not until we break down below there that I would start shorting.

US Dollar Under Attack Overall

Keep in mind that the US dollar of course has been under attack by multiple currencies at the moment and the British pound does seem to be seeing a lot of inflows still despite the fact that it is most certainly overbought. I like the idea of attempting a long in this GBP/USD currency pair on either a break above the highs of the last couple of days or a pullback in a bounce, especially near the 1.32 level.

If we break below the 1.32 level and we see the U S dollar strengthening against other currencies as well, then it’s time to start selling. In that environment, we may have seen a complete shift in sentiment.

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Created on April 30, 2025

• The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday but has given back most of the gains.
• By doing so, this suggests that we are in fact going to continue to see a lot of hesitation.
• I do think that we are still in the midst of trying to form some type of supportive of basing pattern, especially as the ¥140 level seems to be a bit of an epicenter for support.
• Area that I think will remember the previous attempt to break down the road, so I do think that it is an epicenter of importance.

Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to pay close attention to the overall tariff situation, which Japan is a major player when it comes to global trade. The Americans and the Japanese are getting fairly close to some type of deal from what we are hearing in the news, so that could have a major influence on what happens next. All things being equal, if we were to break down below the ¥140 level, that would probably end up being a very negative turn of events.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this USD/JPY pair is rather negative, but you can also make an argument that the ¥140 level is so supportive that you at least have to start to look for the idea of forming a basing pattern, which is the beginning of turning this whole thing around. If we were to break higher, there are multiple areas that I would be concerned about if I were long, starting with the ¥144 level, followed by the 50 Day EMA near the ¥146.75.

I do believe that this will probably end up being a very noisy market that is choppy and difficult, so be aware of the fact that we could see some issues hanging onto positions for a lot of traders. Position sizing will be crucial as usual, and therefore you need to be aware of your size as well.

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Created on April 30, 2025

• The Euro was a bit negative during the trading session on Tuesday. Again, as we continue to see a lot of back and forth.
• The back and forth of course is a sign that the market is trying to work off some of that excess froth.
• At this point, the 1.15 level is a major resistance barrier. And if we can break above there, then it really sends the market much higher.

Underneath we have the 1.13 level is a significant support level. And therefore, I think we’re just kind of stuck in this range. And the fact that we are trying to work off some of the excess buying pressure and basically absorb all of that momentum is not a surprise.

Don’t Forget the Non-Farm Payroll Announcement on Friday

And you have to recognize the fact that Friday is non-farm payroll, so that has a major influence as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think we are going to continue to see a lot of indecision. So if you are a short-term trader, this might be the market for you going back and forth with a range-bound system. By the end of the week, we might get some resolution. But I would say this, if we break back below the 1.12 level, I think that unravels the entire narrative at the moment, and we probably go lower.

On a move above the recent highs, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 1.18 level, but it may take some time to get there. After all, EUR/USD is a pair that spends a lot of time doing very little under normal circumstances, although admittedly, we are not normal circumstances at the moment. Back and forth, I think, is where we’re going.

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The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways