April 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Drifts, Dollar Supported by US-China Tariff Optimism

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was on the back foot on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLT’s job openings data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3409, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed gain ground against most of its counterparts, despite some worse-than-expected domestic data.

The latest JOLT’s job openings report for March showed a decline from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, falling short of expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Adding to the ‘Greenback’s’ challenges was the release of the US’s latest CB consumer confidence index, which dropped from 93.9 to 86.

However, despite these underwhelming figures, the US Dollar gained strength against the majority of its peers, partly due to increased optimism surrounding the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, and hopes for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum and weakened against several major currencies despite the absence of fresh domestic data.

The Pound’s performance was primarily shaped by market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), as investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point reduction at the BoE’s meeting next week.

Sterling’s decline was also exacerbated by signs of a slowing economy amid rising geopolitical tensions. The EY Item Club downgraded its UK GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will likely be a duo of high impact data releases from the US.

The US will unveil its latest GDP figures and its most recent core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

If both data points come in as expected, with GDP forecast to decline and the core PCE price index expected to show a slowdown in inflation, then USD exchange rate could face significant headwinds during mid-week trading.

For the UK, there are no scheduled economic data releases on Wednesday, so the Pound is likely to be influenced by broader market trends and global sentiment.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

April 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Drifts, Dollar Supported by US-China Tariff Optimism

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was on the back foot on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLT’s job openings data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3409, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed gain ground against most of its counterparts, despite some worse-than-expected domestic data.

The latest JOLT’s job openings report for March showed a decline from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, falling short of expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Adding to the ‘Greenback’s’ challenges was the release of the US’s latest CB consumer confidence index, which dropped from 93.9 to 86.

However, despite these underwhelming figures, the US Dollar gained strength against the majority of its peers, partly due to increased optimism surrounding the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, and hopes for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum and weakened against several major currencies despite the absence of fresh domestic data.

The Pound’s performance was primarily shaped by market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), as investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point reduction at the BoE’s meeting next week.

Sterling’s decline was also exacerbated by signs of a slowing economy amid rising geopolitical tensions. The EY Item Club downgraded its UK GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will likely be a duo of high impact data releases from the US.

The US will unveil its latest GDP figures and its most recent core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

If both data points come in as expected, with GDP forecast to decline and the core PCE price index expected to show a slowdown in inflation, then USD exchange rate could face significant headwinds during mid-week trading.

For the UK, there are no scheduled economic data releases on Wednesday, so the Pound is likely to be influenced by broader market trends and global sentiment.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 29, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1370 – 1.1300 – 1.1240.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1440 – 1.1520 – 1.1600.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1280 with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss at 1.1190.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1530.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Ahead of a batch of important and influential US economic releases, bulls attempted to push the EUR/USD price upwards with gains to the resistance level of 1.1425, which reinforces expectations for a move towards the 1.1500 resistance again. Before the rebound, we observed stability in the US dollar price in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious. Forex market experts believe that the worst-case scenario for EUR/USD is likely the support level of 1.1250, and in the event of surprising US data, the 1.1500 resistance is the risk, especially if any of the US jobs data this week indicates that uncertainty about tariffs has already led to layoffs.

Regarding the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD price, Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target rate of 1.20.

Trading Tips:

Traders are advised that easing geopolitical and global trade tensions will favor an upward rebound for the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, monitor closely the factors affecting exchange rates to seize the best trading opportunities.

EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:

EUR/USD bullish scenario: will occur technically with a move towards the 1.1500 resistance, which in turn will push technical indicators – the 14-day RSI and the MACD – towards overbought barriers. This resistance will stimulate technical buying trades to move towards peaks that reinforce the bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair in the coming days. This could be fueled by negative US jobs figures this week, along with a weaker-than-expected US inflation reading favoured by the US Federal Reserve. Alongside these important economic data, trade talks will remain under very close scrutiny.

EUR/USD bearish scenario: Based on the performance on the daily chart, a break of the EUR/USD support level of 1.1260 will remain a threat to the upside. Stability below this level will encourage bears to move towards the next important support levels, 1.1145 and 1.1000, respectively, which will confirm a shift in the general trend to a downside. With the second support, the RSI will move towards the midline, returning the technical performance to neutral.

Today’s EUR/USD trading will be affected by the announcement of the German GFK Consumer Confidence reading at 9:00 AM Cairo time, and the Spanish Growth and Inflation reading at 10:00 AM Cairo time. Most importantly, the US JOLTS Job Openings and US Consumer Confidence readings will be announced at 5:00 PM Cairo time. These are all preliminary indicators of the US jobs figures, the official figures of which will be announced at the end of the week.

US trade wars continue to affect the currency market, according to forex trading. Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if the US administration’s rhetoric does not match reality. Late Friday, US President Trump claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called, but Beijing denied this, insisting there were no trade negotiations.

According to Bank of America, the US dollar could fall more rapidly if the trade negotiations fail. A de-escalation in the trade war and a refocus on pro-growth policies could help the US dollar recover, but we don’t expect the risk premium to completely disappear anytime soon. The bank added that US trade policies and the uncertainty surrounding them are hurting Europe, but are worse for the US. We continue to believe the risks are tilted toward further euro strength as a result of potential European reforms and EU pressure to strike trade deals elsewhere, assuming no trade escalation occurs between the EU and the US.

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Created on April 29, 2025

• The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday but then fell against the Japanese yen.
• The Japanese yen has been very strong for some time, and the euro has been testing the upside.
• I think you’ve got a situation where you are basically stuck in a range, which makes this a very interesting place to be if you are in fact a range bound trader, as you can take advantage of a fairly well-defined short-term range.

That short-term range is basically supported by the ¥161.50 level, as well as resisted near the ¥164 level. In other words, we are essentially in the middle of this range, so it does suggest that we are going to be somewhat neutral at this moment, and it’s probably worth noting that the 200 Day EMA sits just below current trading. Underneath there, we also have the 50 Day EMA, which in and of itself will attract a lot of attention.

Risk Appetite

Remember that the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so we need risk appetite to pick up in order to see the euro gain against it. That being said, if we can break above the ¥165 level, then the euro can truly take off against the Japanese yen. All things being equal, that would take a significant amount of momentum, as well as effort. On a pullback to the 50 Day EMA, then I would be looking for some type of reversal. If we were to break down below the ¥160 level, then it’s likely that we could go down to the ¥158 level, possibly the ¥155 level.

Ultimately, a lot of this will probably come down to the risk appetite of the markets, and the fact that the tariff situation continues to be very difficult for traders to hang onto. The market has been very noisy, and I think that will continue to be the case. Until proven wrong, I am more likely than not going to continue to look at this as a market that remains sideways for the time being, and therefore a range bound system is to be employed.

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