Key Breakdown Levels

If gold breaks decisively below the triangle’s lower boundary, a bearish signal would be triggered. However, confirmation requires further weakness, specifically a decline through the higher swing low at $3,268. A close below that level would confirm a breakdown from the triangle, setting up a test of the May swing low at $3,121. That level also marks the completion of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($3,149) measured from April’s $3,500 record high.

Broader Bearish Risks

Should $3,121 fail to hold, volatility could increase sharply, as failed consolidation patterns often lead to extended moves. Given that this triangle has formed at the top of a long-term bull trend, the expectation under normal conditions would be for an eventual upside breakout. If that does not occur, the 200-Day moving average, now at $3,043, becomes the next major downside target. Whether it is reached or not it indicates increasing seller pressure.

Alternative Bullish Scenarios

While bearish risks dominate in the short term, traders should also remain alert to the potential for false breakdowns. A reversal back into the triangle after a failed move lower could set the stage for renewed bullish momentum. A breakout above the $3,439 swing high, which helps define the triangle’s upper boundary, would confirm such a reversal and signal a return to the longer-term uptrend.

Outlook

Until gold breaks decisively beyond the symmetrical triangle boundaries, momentum is likely to remain muted. Within this consolidation phase, short-term patterns are less likely to follow through. For now, bears control the short-term picture, but both $3,268 on the downside and $3,439 on the upside remain pivotal levels for the next decisive move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price gains marginally to near $38.00 amid caution ahead of meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy.

• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September.

• Silver price wobbles near the 20-day EMA around $37.90.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to near $38.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal attracts slight bids as the market sentiment is slightly cautious, with investors awaiting the meeting between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House on Monday.

US Secretary of the State Marco Rubio has confirmed that a bunch of European and NATO members are joining Trump and Zelenskyy at the White House to discuss concessions proposed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin for ending war in Ukraine.

Signs of a truce between Russia and Ukraine would be unfavorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver, which tends to perform strongly in heightened geopolitical tensions.

However, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates in the September meeting continue to provide support to the Silver price. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates in September is 82.6%. Traders have remained confident about Fed’s interest rate cuts in the policy meeting next month due to cooling labor market conditions.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price gains marginally to near $38.10 on Monday. The white metal demonstrates a sharp contraction in volatility due to the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. The horizontal support of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the July 7 low around $36.16, while the downward-sloping border is placed from the July 23 high near $39.53.

The asset wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $37.90, suggesting a sideways trend

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Looking down, the June 24 low of $35.28 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the July 23 high near $39.53 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.

Silver daily chart

Resistance Holds at Key Levels

Today’s weakness follows last Friday’s failed attempt to push higher, where resistance was met at a long-term anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) with a peak at $2.97. That test aligned closely with additional resistance near $3.00, and the 20-Day moving average, now at $2.99, which represents dynamic resistance in the broader downtrend. Any rallies from current levels are expected to face headwinds in this $2.97–$2.99 zone, keeping bears in control.

Bearish Targets Taking Shape

The breakdown has opened the path to lower targets, with $2.63 as the first level of interest. This comes from a smaller descending ABCD pattern, where symmetry between the AB and CD legs projects a 100% match at $2.63.

Confluence Zone Below $2.54

Beyond $2.63, attention shifts to a lower confluence zone between $2.54 and $2.51. Multiple technical factors point toward this region, strengthening its significance as a potential magnet for price. It includes a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54 and aligns with a larger ABCD pattern, measured from this year’s peak, that projects a 78.6% downside target also at $2.54. Combined, these overlapping levels define a high-probability area where natural gas may eventually seek support if the bearish correction continues.

Outlook

With today’s continuation signal and sellers maintaining control, natural gas remains biased lower. Until the 20-Day average is reclaimed, momentum favors additional downside toward $2.63 initially, and potentially into the $2.54–$2.51 support band.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,324.34

• US President Donald Trump reported progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
• Financial markets await fresh monetary policy clues from worldwide policymakers.
• XAU/USD trades at fresh weekly lows and aims to extend its slide.

Spot Gold came under selling pressure during American trading hours, easing towards the $3,320 area. The bright metal retreated as the US Dollar (USD) gathered momentum amid fresh optimism about a resolution of the Russian Ukraine war. On Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump met with the Kyiv leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and different European authorities to discuss the conditions for a peace agreement.

After the meeting, Trump reported progress and said he would help Ukraine get secure conditions for a peace deal, but excluded the country from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He also stated the next meeting should be between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Later, Trump offered an interview to FOX News, in which he added that he hopes Putin “will be good,” and if he’s not, it will become a “rough situation.”

Other than that, investors kept an eye on Canadian inflation data. Canada’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual 1.7% increase in July, down from the 1.9% posted in June and matching estimates, according to Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada (BoC) core annual CPI printed at 2.6% for the year to July, slightly below the previous 2.7%.

Market players are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes scheduled for Wednesday, and the Jackson Hole Symposium taking place this week. Policymakers’ words are closely watched for potential hints on upcoming monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair trades near an intraday low of $3,320.98, and technical readings in the daily chart show that a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps offering dynamic resistance, currently at around $3,348.00. At the same time, a bullish 100 SMA is losing its bullish strength at around $3,309.00, providing support. Finally, technical indicators diverge, as the Momentum indicator aims north above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator gains downward traction at around 45.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is bearish. The 20 SMA accelerated south below converging 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shorter, in line with increased selling interest. At the same time, technical indicators head south within negative levels, in line with lower lows ahead.

Support levels: 3,320.00 3,309.00 3,295.80

Resistance levels: 3,339.20 3,348.00 3,372.30

Is the Recent Cooldown in U.S. Weather Dragging on Natural Gas Demand?

Weather remains a primary driver, and the latest models are providing little support. According to NatGasWeather, a strong upper ridge remains in control through Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to 100s across much of the country. However, the forecast turns cooler midweek, especially across the Midwest, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, with highs dropping to the 60s and 70s.

The 8–15 day outlook trends even cooler, showing the dominant ridge weakening and retreating into the southern U.S. That’s keeping national cooling degree days (CDDs) near or slightly below normal—hardly the setup for a late-summer demand surge.

What Does the Latest EIA Storage Report Signal for Price Action?

The EIA reported a 56 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending August 8, bringing total inventories to 3,186 Bcf. That’s 79 Bcf below last year’s levels but still 196 Bcf above the five-year average. Regional builds were broad-based, with the East and Midwest adding 21 Bcf each.

Even with stockpiles running slightly behind last year, current levels remain well within the five-year range, muting any urgency for supply-side concerns. Traders are viewing the steady pace of injections—and the likelihood of continued moderate weather—as evidence that end-of-season storage targets can be met without price pressure.

Can Technical Levels Offer Direction as Bears Push Lower?

Copper price didn’t move anything, to keep providing slow sideways trading by its fluctuation near $4.4500, affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, due to the stability of stochastic within the oversold level, to reduce the chances for renewing the suggested bullish attempts.

The stability above the extra support at $4.2600 assists to confirm the price confinement within the bullish track, to keep waiting for gathering the required positive momentum for reaching the positive stations near $4.6200 and $4.7400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.330 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish