For now, the 100-day moving average presents key resistance that could lead to a pullback or consolidation. However, the next higher target is defined by the 200-day moving average, now near $4,496. It represents a more significant resistance zone given its long-term timeframe and therefore may be tested before the current advance reaches its conclusion. The path toward that higher target, however, may depend on how gold responds to the initial resistance near $4,392.
Trendline Recovery Strengthens the Bullish Case
Friday’s extension of the rally confirmed a recovery above the long-term uptrend line that had shown signs of resistance over the past couple of days. A recovery above the trendline is another piece of bullish technical evidence for gold. It follows the recent reclaim of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a breakout above a downtrend line, and a trend reversal signal on a move above the lower swing high at $4,203. Together, these developments strengthen the case that the broader trend has shifted back in favor of the bulls.
Next Test: $4,382-$4,392
Near-term support is Friday’s low of $4,230, especially since it aligns closely near the uptrend line, followed by the lower swing high at $4,203. Key dynamic support is indicated by the 50-day moving average near $4,152. The magnitude of any pullback will assist in gauging demand, and it may determine whether the 200-day moving average is tested, if it doesn’t occur during this initial sharp advance.
Thus, Friday’s strong close not only reinforces the recent bullish reversal but also sets up the next test: whether buyers can push through the $4,382-$4,392 resistance zone without a meaningful pullback, keeping the higher $4,496 target in view.
The Pound to Japanese Yen exchange rate (GBP/JPY) ended Friday near 212.91 following a volatile week, with the Yen supported by coordinated US-Japan intervention and a shock decline in US payrolls.
Pound Sterling recovered from the August low near 209.63, but remained well below July’s 219.61 high as traders stayed wary of renewed intervention and faster Bank of Japan tightening.
GBP/JPY Forecasts: 209–216 range in focus
ING expects USD/JPY to remain broadly contained between 155 and 160 following official action to support the Yen.
With GBP/USD trading close to 1.35, that range would imply GBP/JPY levels of around 209–216 if Sterling-Dollar remained broadly unchanged.
This is an implied cross-rate range rather than a direct ING forecast for GBP/JPY.
According to ING; “We struggle to see this bilateral action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155.”
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GBP/JPY closed at 212.91, around 0.3% higher over the week after trading between 209.63 and 213.31 during August.
The pair remains more than 3% below July’s high of 219.61, recorded before Japanese and US authorities stepped into the market.
ING described the intervention as a “containment exercise” rather than an attempt to force a lasting Yen revaluation.
The bank commented; “This intervention does not change the fundamentals of a Fed close to hiking and Tokyo running a loose set of monetary and fiscal policies, which are weighing on the Yen.”
That assessment was made before Friday’s US employment report weakened one of the principal sources of support for USD/JPY.
ING nevertheless expects the intervention to limit investors from chasing USD/JPY above 160, buying time for Tokyo to introduce more Yen-supportive policies.
Crédit Agricole is less convinced that the intervention gains will last.
The bank forecasts USD/JPY averaging 162 during the third quarter and 163 in the fourth quarter.
At current Sterling-Dollar levels, these projections would be consistent with GBP/JPY near 218.60 and 219.90, although these are implied calculations rather than direct Crédit Agricole forecasts.
According to Crédit Agricole; “We continue to believe 164 in USD/JPY is the line in the sand for authorities. The recent joint intervention has reaffirmed this view.”
It added; “If the fundamentals do not shift for the JPY, its current intervention gains could also fade.”
The Yen strengthened again on Friday after US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, compared with forecasts for an 80,000 increase.
The weak report pushed US yields lower and reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, sending USD/JPY briefly below 157.
Sterling’s own interest-rate support also remains uncertain.
MUFG commented; “Yield support has underpinned Sterling resilience,” but added; “We suspect the move at the front-end of the curve is now overdone.”
The bank warned that easing energy risks could lower UK yields and take the Pound lower, while renewed financial-market volatility would also be likely to undermine Sterling.
In the near term, ING’s implied 209–216 range offers the clearest guide for GBP/JPY.
A renewed Yen surge would bring the August low at 209.63 back into focus, while a recovery above 213.31 could open a move towards 216.
Crédit Agricole’s implied 218–220 region would require the intervention impact to fade and Sterling to remain firm, while further official action or stronger Bank of Japan tightening signals would keep the downside risks dominant.
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Silver price surges nearly 3% as it clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.13, and reclaims the $63.00 figure as it struggles to surpass key resistance seen at $63.28, the July 6 high.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver trades sideways, but bulls are gaining traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI crossed above its 50-neutral level, poised to hit the overbought 70 level, rather sooner than later.
This suggests that the white metal could test higher prices, once it crosses the $65.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at $68.98, before testing the psychological $70.00 mark. Once cleared, the 200-day SMA becomes the next ceiling level at $71.22.
If XAG/USD retreats below the $63.00, a retracement towards the 50-day SMA is on the cards. On further weakness, Silver could fall towards the $60.00 mark, followed by the August 3 low of $56.57.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The euro is finding renewed strength against the US dollar as markets increase bets on a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) policy path, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of rate hikes in the coming months. This shift in expectations is providing fresh upside momentum for the EUR/USD currency pair, which has been trading in a range but now appears poised for a breakout.
Why Hawkish ECB Bets Are Supporting the Euro
The core driver behind the euro’s recent resilience is the market’s growing conviction that the ECB will maintain a tighter monetary policy stance compared to earlier expectations. Recent comments from several ECB policymakers have signaled a willingness to continue raising interest rates to combat persistent inflation in the eurozone, even as the region’s economic growth shows signs of slowing. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to pause its rate hiking cycle, creating a policy divergence that favors the euro.
According to money market pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting has risen sharply over the past week. This repricing has been fueled by stronger-than-expected inflation data from key eurozone economies, particularly Germany and France, which have shown that price pressures remain sticky. As a result, the yield differential between German and US government bonds has narrowed, making euro-denominated assets more attractive to investors.
Technical Levels to Watch in EUR/USD
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has been building a base above the 1.0800 support level, with the pair now attempting to break above its 200-day moving average. A sustained move above this key indicator could open the door for a test of the 1.1000 psychological level, which has acted as resistance in recent months. On the downside, the 1.0700 area remains a critical support zone, and a break below that could signal a bearish reversal.
Traders are also watching the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been hovering around the 50 mark, indicating a neutral momentum. However, a clear break above 60 would suggest that bullish momentum is building. The recent price action suggests that the market is positioning for a potential upside breakout, with the pair having formed a series of higher lows since early March.
Market Implications and What to Watch
For traders and investors, the key takeaway is that the EUR/USD pair is at a pivotal juncture. The combination of hawkish ECB expectations and a softer US dollar is creating a supportive environment for the euro. However, the pair’s direction will largely depend on upcoming economic data and central bank communications. The next major test will be the release of the eurozone’s flash CPI data for May, which is due in the coming days. A hot reading could cement expectations of further ECB tightening and push the pair higher.
Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, scheduled for release this week, could provide further clarity on the US rate outlook. If the minutes reveal a more dovish tone, it would likely weigh on the dollar and provide additional support for EUR/USD. Conversely, any surprises in the data could lead to increased volatility.
Conclusion
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is being supported by a shift in market sentiment towards a more hawkish ECB, which is backing fresh upside in the exchange rate. While the technical picture suggests a potential breakout, the pair’s trajectory will be heavily influenced by upcoming economic data and central bank communications. Traders should remain cautious and monitor key levels and events to navigate the evolving landscape.
FAQs
Q1: What is driving the EUR/USD forecast? The EUR/USD forecast is being driven by increasing market bets that the European Central Bank will maintain a hawkish policy stance, with rate hikes expected, while the Federal Reserve is seen as more likely to pause. This policy divergence is supporting the euro.
Q2: What are the key technical levels to watch in EUR/USD? Key technical levels include the 1.0800 support, the 200-day moving average around 1.0850, and the 1.1000 resistance level. A break above the 200-day MA could signal further upside, while a drop below 1.0700 would be bearish.
Q3: How does ECB policy affect the euro? ECB policy directly influences the euro’s value through interest rates. When the ECB signals higher rates or maintains a hawkish stance, it makes euro-denominated assets more attractive, potentially strengthening the euro against other currencies like the US dollar.
Disclaimer: The information provided is not trading advice, Bitcoinworld.co.in holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page. We strongly recommend independent research and/or consultation with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
At 5:20 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $86.04 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a gain of $2.40 compared with yesterday morning and around $19 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$83.64
+2.86%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$72.62
+18.47%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$66.99
+28.43%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$83.64
% Change
+2.86%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$72.62
% Change
+18.47%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$66.99
% Change
+28.43%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
The British Pound retreats against the Japanese Yen, down about 0.24%, as the Yen is poised to end the week on a higher note. However, GBP/JPY is poised to finish the week with minimal gains, trading at 212.64.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY trades sideways, though slightly tilted to the downside, following an intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. Worth noting that after soft US jobs data, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that FX markets had been affected by moves rather than fundamentals.
This pushed GBP/JPY to the day’s low of 211.47, slightly below the 200-day SMA of 211.91, but buyers reclaimed the latter and surpassed 212.00. After the rebound, the cross is about to end Friday’s session near the highs, but it will face key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 214.48, followed by the 50-day SMA at 215.42.
In the event of further losses, the first GBP/JPY support is 212.00. Below the next support is the 200-day SMA at 211.91, followed by 211.00. Beneath emerges the August 3 low of 209.58.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.11%
-0.02%
0.25%
-0.50%
-0.42%
0.10%
0.13%
EUR
0.11%
0.08%
0.38%
-0.38%
-0.18%
0.20%
0.25%
GBP
0.02%
-0.08%
-0.09%
-0.48%
-0.31%
0.11%
0.14%
JPY
-0.25%
-0.38%
0.09%
-0.68%
-0.52%
-0.06%
-0.04%
CAD
0.50%
0.38%
0.48%
0.68%
0.17%
0.64%
0.62%
AUD
0.42%
0.18%
0.31%
0.52%
-0.17%
0.40%
0.44%
NZD
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.11%
0.06%
-0.64%
-0.40%
0.04%
CHF
-0.13%
-0.25%
-0.14%
0.04%
-0.62%
-0.44%
-0.04%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
2026.08.07 2026.08.07 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 07.08.26 – 14.08.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 67.00 with a target of 105.17–115.50. A buy signal: the price holds above 67.00. Stop Loss: below 65.50, Take Profit: 105.17–115.50.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 67.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 58.50–50.00. A sell signal: the level of 67.00 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 68.50, Take Profit: 58.50–50.00.
Main scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 67.00 with a target of 105.17–115.50.
Alternative scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 67.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 58.50–50.00.
Analysis
A descending correction (2) appears to have formed on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, an ascending wave (3) is likely developing. Within it, the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) has formed, a downward correction 2 of (3) has been completed, and wave 3 of (3) has started forming. Wave i of 3 is still developing on the H4 chart, with a local correction (ii) of i completed as part of its structure. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 105.17–115.50 in wave (iii) of i. The level of 67.00 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 58.50–50.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
USD/JPY moved lower as traders focused on falling Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.65%.
If USD/JPY settles below the 157.00 level, it will move towards the support level at 154.50 – 155.00. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 157.50 – 158.00 will push USD/JPY towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.
As summer enters its final stretch, the U.S. natural gas market remains well supplied despite higher year-over-year demand trends. According to preliminary data from Rystad Energy, total natural gas demand, including exports, of more than 118 Bcf per day through July is running 2.5 percent above the same period in 2025. Growth has been driven by LNG feedgas deliveries and higher power sector consumption despite flagging industrial and residential/commercial demand signals. On the supply side, dry gas production for the year so far has averaged 111.1 Bcf per day, 4.3 percent higher than year-ago levels, and underground storage inventories remain nearly 7 percent above the five-year average.
Looking ahead, 2026 average annual daily production is expected to rise 4.7 percent over 2025 levels, according to recent forecasts from Rystad Energy. Despite an expected increase in total natural gas demand of nearly 3 percent year over year, Rystad Energy lowered its price forecast in the July North America Gas Market Report (July Market Report). The current forecast now expects Henry Hub prices to average $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026, down 6.2 percent from the June forecast, on a looser market and bearish market fundamentals.
Natural Gas Prices Remain Below the $3 Mark
Natural gas prices declined in July amid record production and softer LNG feedgas demand. Henry Hub futures prices fell nearly 15 percent for the month, from $3.22 per MMBtu on July 1 to $2.75 per MMBtu on July 31. In the day-ahead spot market, Henry Hub prices followed a similar trend, declining 22.7 percent from $3.35 per MMBtu on July 1 to $2.59 per MMBtu on July 31, according to data from Argus Media.
Average day-ahead spot prices fell to discounted levels in most regions relative to Henry Hub during July as regional supply and demand dynamics influenced local pricing (all in $/MMBtu):
Northeast: The regional average moved from a $0.92 premium to Henry Hub at the beginning of July to a $0.22 discount by the end of the month.
Appalachia: The regional discount spread widened slightly, from $0.75 below Henry Hub on July 1 to $0.83 below the benchmark on July 31.
Southwest and Rockies/Northwest: Steep discounts narrowed substantially over the month. Both regional averages traded more than $2.35 below Henry Hub on July 1 but only about $0.20 below the benchmark by July 31.
Louisiana/Southeast: The regional average remained closely aligned with Henry Hub, ending July at a modest $0.04 premium.
Most regional indexes averaged below Henry Hub during July. Regional average price differentials ranged from nearly flat in Louisiana/Southeast and the Northeast, to discounts greater than $0.70 per MMBtu in the Rockies/Northwest, Southwest, and Appalachia.
Both spot prices and futures at Henry Hub have remained below $3 in August to date, reinforcing recent bearish trends. As of August 5, prices settled at $2.69 per MMBtu in the day-ahead spot market and $2.60 per MMBtu in the futures market.
Summer Heat Expected to Rebound After Brief Cooldown
The U.S. experienced a two-week decline in temperatures through the end of July, even as conditions remained above the 30-year normal. For the week ending August 1, temperatures were 6.7 percent cooler than the same week last year but 10.7 percent warmer than the 30-year normal, according to cooling degree days (CDDs) weighted by electric home air conditioning customers. Regionally, CDD data were mixed, with four regions – the West North Central, West South Central, Mountain, and Pacific – running warmer than last year. All but three regions – the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, and New England – were warmer than normal. Despite the late-month moderation, July finished 1.1 percent warmer than last year and 18.4 percent warmer than normal.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 8–14-day temperature outlook for August 13–19 favors above-normal temperatures across much of the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii. The highest probabilities are expected across the South and Midwest, where chances exceed 60 percent in portions of the Gulf Coast states, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Near- and below-normal temperatures are favored across the Northeast and portions of the northern tier. At the time of writing, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances in the Pacific, each with a less than 40 percent chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next seven days in the Atlantic.
Electric Power Demand Reaches Record in July
Total natural gas demand, including exports, averaged 113.8 Bcf per day in July, rising 2.8 percent above the previous record for the month set in July 2025, according to preliminary data from Rystad Energy. Growth was driven primarily by higher export demand, with LNG feedgas and pipeline exports to Mexico increasing 7.8 percent year-over-year. Domestic demand also increased, supported by record electric power consumption and higher industrial natural gas demand. Preliminary data from Rystad shows that electric power demand averaged 49.6 Bcf per day in July, which would be a new monthly record for the sector, while industrial consumption rose 3.2 percent year-over-year. Residential and commercial demand declined year-over-year, averaging 3.3 Bcf per day in July.
Month-over-month trends were more mixed. LNG exports averaged 15.8 Bcf per day in July, declining 1.2 percent from June due to the ongoing Freeport LNG outage and slower-than-expected Golden Pass LNG ramp-up. However, total export demand still increased 2.0 percent month-over-month, supported by a 10.4 percent increase in pipeline exports to Mexico amid strong cooling demand.
Production Strength Driven by LNG and Data Center Demand
Dry natural gas production averaged 112.2 Bcf per day in July, up 3.9 percent from July 2025 and marking a record high for the month, according to preliminary data from Rystad Energy. In its July Market Report, Rystad revised its forecast for 2026 exit-to-exit production growth to 2.8 Bcf per day, meaning production at year-end 2026 is expected to be 2.8 Bcf per day higher than at year-end 2025. This is up from the 2.4 Bcf per day increase projected in its June forecast. Production growth has been concentrated in the Haynesville Basin, where the company Citadel-backed Apex has accounted for more than 800 MMcf per day of growth so far in 2026. Looking ahead, Rystad expects exit-to-exit production growth to accelerate to 5.0 Bcf per day in 2027, supported by stronger LNG capacity additions and rising natural gas demand from AI data centers.
July Feedgas Flows Ease Despite Rallying Global Prices
In July, LNG feedgas flows averaged 17.4 Bcf per day, declining 1.2 percent from June and remaining below early-year highs of nearly 19 Bcf per day, according to preliminary data from Rystad Energy. Rystad Energy’s July Market Report attributed the decline to another maintenance period at Freeport LNG, which began in early July and is expected to continue through the end of August. Flows have averaged approximately 0.7 Bcf per day below normal intake levels during the outage. Feedgas intake at Golden Pass LNG also remained below expected levels as the facility’s ramp-up progressed more slowly than anticipated. The combination of reduced LNG feedgas demand has contributed to additional supply availability in the domestic market, supporting downward pressure on natural gas prices.
According to Reuters, the July slowdown in U.S. LNG exports coincided with higher global natural gas prices. Preliminary data from financial firm LSEG indicate that exports declined by 0.1 million metric tons (MMT), from 10.6 MMT in June to 10.5 MMT in July. Over the same period, prices increased at key Asian and European trading hubs. Asia’s benchmark Japan Korea Marker averaged $19.10 per MMBtu in July, increasing 10.2 percent from June, while Europe’s Dutch Title Transfer Facility averaged $18.07 per MMBtu, up 37.0 percent from the June average. Europe remained the primary destination for U.S. LNG cargoes as buyers continued to replenish storage inventories ahead of the winter heating season. U.S. LNG shipments to Europe increased to 4.8 million metric tons (MMT) in July from 4.4 MMT in June, accounting for nearly half of total U.S. LNG exports.
In other LNG news:
Storage
The EIA reported a 33 Bcf net injection into underground storage for the week ending July 31, bringing lower 48 natural gas inventories to 3,117 Bcf. The weekly refill was driven by net injections of 24 Bcf and 20 Bcf in the East and Midwest, respectively, while other regions posted net withdrawals of up to 6 Bcf in the South Central. Working gas stocks now sit 6.7 percent above the five-year average but 0.4 percent below year-ago levels. Regional storage inventories remain in surplus territory relative to their respective five-year averages, while only the East and Midwest remain above year-ago levels.
After adjusting for weather, July storage injections averaged 1.2 Bcf per day higher than normal, according to Rystad Energy’s July Market Report.
The Value of Natural Gas Trade with Canada Increased in 2025
Cross-border pipeline flows showed mixed trends for the week ending August 5, according to preliminary data from Rystad Energy. Compared to last week, imports from Canada and exports to Mexico decreased, falling 2.1 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, imports to Canada decreased by 8.1 percent while exports to Mexico rose 7.9 percent on higher cooling demand.
The EIA reports that the value of natural gas trade with Canada increased in 2025, as natural gas prices increased from 2024 all-time lows on an inflation adjusted basis. U.S. natural gas exports to Canada, made up primarily of pipeline exports, averaged 2.8 Bcf per day, up 4 percent year over year, and increased 77 percent in value to $2.6 billion. At the same time U.S. imports from Canada averaged 8.6 Bcf per day in 2025, 1 percent above 2024 levels, while the value of those imports increased by 52 percent.
Oil-Directed Drilling Increases Week-over-Week
U.S. drilling rig count increased by one for the week ending July 31, bringing the total count to 588, according to data from Baker Hughes. This increase was driven by oil-directed rigs, rising by one to 451, while natural gas-directed rigs and miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged at 127 and ten, respectively. Total U.S. rigs are up 48 from the same week last year, an increase of 8.9 percent. Natural gas-directed rigs increased by three for this period, a 2.4 percent increase, with oil rigs up 41, a 10 percent increase.
What to Watch:
Demand: How strongly will the expected rebound in August heat translate into power-sector gas demand after July’s record consumption?
Price: Are July’s shifting regional price differentials temporary, or do persistent discounts in Appalachia, the Southwest, and the Rockies/Northwest point to ongoing transportation constraints or localized supply abundance?
Production: Will strong production forecasts materialize if Henry Hub prices remain below $3 per MMBtu?
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A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.
War headlines keep shaping sentiment
United States (US) President Donald Trump kept repeating throughout the week that he believed that the war with Iran would be over “soon.” Market players, however, believe the ongoing pause in the Middle East crisis has more to do with reports suggesting the US Army is running out of highly accurate long-range missiles after its five-month war with Iran.
Also, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Trump of staging “theater diplomacy,” accusing the US of bullying and breaking promises. Tehran presented a plan on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which includes blocking the critical passage to US and Israeli ships. Traffic through the critical passage remains restrained, while skirmishes between different Middle East countries continue.
On a positive note, Oil prices remained within familiar levels, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $77 as the week comes to an end.
United States weak labor market?
Markets also took note of the US labor market health, with soft readings coupled with persistent inflation-related concerns weighing on the US Dollar (USD). ISM published the July Purchasing Managers’ Index, which showed business activity in the country remained in expansionary territory, with the Manufacturing Index printing at 55.6, and the Services PMI climbing to 54.1. The reports, however, also showed that the Price Paid Indexes linked to both sectors came in higher than anticipated and above 70, hinting at persistent inflationary pressures.
Regarding employment figures, JOLTS Job Openings edged modestly lower in June, although hiring remained unchanged. The ADP Employment Change survey showed that the private sector added measly 44K new jobs in July, down from the 95K previous and the expected 70K, while the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based employers announced 33,429 cuts in July, down from the 45,849 registered in June.
Finally, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the country lost 23K jobs in July while the June reading was downwardly revised to measly 20K from the original estimate of 57K. On a positive note, however, the Unemployment Rate shrank to 4.1%, its lowest in over a year, although the labor force Participation Rate also eased a tad, to 61.4% from the previous 61.5%.
Euro lacking life of its own
Financial markets are all about sentiment and EUR/USD moved accordingly to USD strength/weakness, with the shared currency lacking life of its own.
Data from the Union was far from encouraging: Retail Sales in Germany fell 0.2% in June vs the previous 2.1% advance, while the Eurozone figure for the same month came in at -0.3%, down from the 0.4% advance posted in May. Also, the bloc Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.6% in the year to June as expected, down from the previous 5.9%.
The Euro was unable to attract buyers despite European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warning that surging Oil prices could shape the September rate decision, hinting at an interest rate hike at the next meeting. Indeed, data supports the case for another hike, as euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.8% in June according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
What’s next in the docket
Inflation takes center stage in the upcoming days, as the US will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. Annual inflation, as measured by the CPI, is foreseen at 3.4%, slightly below the 3.5% posted in June. On the same day, Germany will unveil the final reading of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), while the US will publish the July Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, previously at 5.5%. Friday will bring the first revision of the Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
And of course, the focus will remain on Middle East developments and how Oil Prices react to headlines.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair turned bullish, according to technical readings in the daily chart, although it still faces some barriers before confirming a steeper advance. The pair holds above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which advances to 1.1453, but remains below the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, both flat. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 62, while the Momentum indicator also advances above its midline, suggesting ongoing bullish pressure despite the pair struggling to decisively reclaim its heavier moving averages overhead.
In the weekly chart, EUR/USD trades just under the 20-week SMA at 1.1566, which caps the upside and keeps the near-term tone neutral. The pair remains above both the 100-week SMA at 1.1316 and the 200-week SMA at 1.1041, suggesting a broadly constructive medium-term backdrop even as near-term momentum stalls. The Momentum indicator remains below its midline, while the RSI hovers near the 50 line, suggesting a lack of clear directional pressure and favoring consolidation over trend extension for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, with a stronger barrier at the 200-day SMA near 1.1629, where sellers could reassert control if tested. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day SMA at 1.1453, and a daily close back under this short-term average would hint at fading upside momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback within the broader range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
