A decisive break above $66.99 could open the path to $68.15 and $70.21. Failure to clear this range might drag price back toward $64.24 or deeper to $62.20. So far, Brent is grinding higher, but the lack of volume near resistance zones suggests traders are cautious.
This triangle is nearing its apex—expect a breakout or breakdown soon as macro headlines and inventory data weigh in.
Copper price’s trading extended towards 68% Fibonacci correction level, recording the second target at $4.9000, to form an extra barrier against the bullish rally.
We expect price affection by some of the negative pressures, especially, stochastic attempts to exit the overbought level, which might increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track and suffering some losses by reaching $4.7700 and $4.6800, while the price success to breach the obstacle will reinforce the chances for recording new gains that might extend towards $4.9600 reaching the next barrier near $5.0300.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7700 and $4.900
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
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Gold price bounces from multi-day lows as bargain hunting kicks in early Wednesday.
The US Dollar reverses recovery gains as investors doubt President Trump’s intentions.
Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade as the RSI eases and prods the bullish zone.
Gold price has bounced off the dip to three-day lows near $3,310 early Wednesday as buyers fight back control amid a fading US Dollar (USD) recovery ahead of the US S&P Global preliminary business PMI data release.
Gold price could see a buying resurgence at lower levels
Gold price has witnessed volatile trading this week, hitting fresh record highs at $3,500 before facing rejection and slumping toward the $3,300 level. The record run in the Gold price was mainly backed by the markets’ anxiety about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence following President Donald Trump’s verbal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The focus shifted from the US-China trade war to Trump’s Fed threat early in the week, exacerbating the US Dollar’s pain while driving the Gold price to new all-time highs. However, the tide turned in favor of the Greenback in Tuesday’s American trading as USD buyers were rescued by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said at a closed event that he expects “there will be a de-escalation” in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in the “very near future.”
Hopes of easing US-China trade tensions fuelled a positive shift in risk sentiment and a US Dollar recovery, reflecting an ideal ‘Tuesday turnaround.’ Investors took this as an excuse to book profits on their Gold long positions as the bright metal corrected as much as $120 from record highs to settle near $3,380.
Gold’s corrective downside extends into Asian trading as investors digest the overnight backpedalling by Trump on the US-China trade war and Powell’s firing. The US President said that the final tariff rate with China would come down “substantially” from the current 145% but it won’t be that high, not going to be that high.”
He added that he is willing to strike a trade deal with China, showing his openness for negotiations.
However, the downside in Gold price remains cushioned as the USD stalls its recovery momentum as markets question Trump’s intentions, citing them as highly unpredictable.
The attention now turns to the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from Europe and the US for further trading impetus. US PMI data for April will be closely scrutinized for fresh signs on the health of the US economy. The data could help markets alter their expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year.
Fed fund futures ran into selling late Tuesday as investors scaled back the extent of rate cuts expected by year-end to around 81 basis points (bps).
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought territory, returning to the bullish zone.
The latest downtick in the leading indicator backs the fresh leg down in Gold price. However, buyers remain hopeful so long as the $3,300 level holds fort.
If the correction deepens, Gold price could challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,163.
Ahead of that, the $3,200 barrier could provide some support to buyers.
Conversely, if the uptrend resumes, Gold price could retake the $3,400 threshold en-route to the record highs of $3,500.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Signs have been building recently that the uptrend was getting extended with the risk of a bearish pullback increasing. Nonetheless, the price of gold proceeded higher as global uncertainty spread, busting through numerous potential resistance levels on the way up. Recently, upside breakouts of two rising parallel trend channels triggered and were confirmed by weekly closing prices above the top of each channel. This was bullish behavior but also signs of growing speculation as traders jump into gold in fear of losing out on further gains.
Generates Bearish Shooting Star
Today’s bearish shooting star candlestick pattern will trigger a one-day bearish reversal on a drop below today’s low, currently at $3,372. The first clear downside target is the prior brief trend high at $3,246, which was also the top of a small bull pennant pattern that covered only two days. Measuring the pattern provided an estimated target of $3,454, and it was exceeded today. Also, on the way down watch for support around the top channel lines. The price they represent will vary depending on when approached.
Test of 20-Day Moving Average Possible
Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed at the beginning of this year, two subsequent pullbacks to test the line as support failed initially before gold recovered and trended higher. This current potential bearish pullback could certainly fall to the 20-Day line, now at $3,153, to test it as support before it is complete. If that is what happens the expectation is for signs of support to be seen around the line. Since the 20-Day MA is rising it may reach another prior trend high of $3,168, where support may be seen, or rise above it.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Since the spike peak of $4.90 (A) was reached briefly in early March natural gas has been in a steady decline that accelerated following an initial pullback and establishment of a lower swing high (C) three weeks ago. It recently confirmed that sellers remain in charge as both the 200-Day MA, now at $3.07, and the January swing low were broken to the downside.
On Monday, natural gas closed below the 200-Day line, and it looks set to do the same today. Being an important long term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA is being tested as support for only the second time since the line was reclaimed in September of last year. It sets the stage for a possible test of support are lower price levels.
Bear Tend Extended
At the same time, the decline is showing signs of getting closer to exhaustion. Until there is a daily close below the $3.23 prior swing low, natural gas remains within a potential support zone that could continue to hold. Although there have not been any signs of buyers stepping in, the decline has stalled at the support zone. If it is sustained, a sign of strength would be indicated on a rally above today’s high of $3.10. Whether that leads to a continuation higher remains to be seen. Of course, as it stands now, a rally above today’s high would put the price of natural gas back above the 200-Day MA. Otherwise, a bearish continuation could see a decline down to the $3.79 price area.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Pound Sterling’s recent rally against the US Dollar takes a break on Tuesday, with GBPUSD trading flat at around 1.337.
“GBPUSD looks to be taking a pause following its impressive 10-session rally from 1.2700,” says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist Momentum at Scotiabank.
“Momentum is overbought with an RSI at 71 and the latest couple of candles are showing extended upper shadows, hinting to exhaustion.
“We see near-term resistance in the lower 1.34s and look to support in the upper 1.32s.
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate traded sideways on Tuesday as markets continued to digest US President Donald Trump’s latest comments.
The US Dollar (USD) faced headwinds on Tuesday, slipping against most major currencies after fresh criticism from Donald Trump aimed at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump’s latest remarks, branding Powell as “Mr too late” and a “major loser,” stirred unease among investors, fuelling uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path.
With pressure mounting from the President for interest rate cuts, appetite for the Greenback remained subdued as markets hesitated to make bold moves.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said: ‘Markets are starting to question one of the bedrock assumptions behind the dollar’s reserve currency status: an independent, inflation-fighting Fed. With President Trump ramping up public pressure on Powell to slash rates “now,” we’re not just flirting with jawboning—we’re staring down the barrel of a credibility unwind.’
The Pound (GBP) held firm against most major currencies on Tuesday as European markets resumed following the Easter break.
Sterling drew modest support from a weakening US Dollar (USD) and renewed speculation over possible UK–US trade negotiations.
However, gains were kept in check as investors looked ahead to a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden.
Markets remained alert for any suggestion that global economic headwinds could prompt the BoE to consider loosening policy further, an outcome that could drag on the Pound.
Pound Sterling to Dollar FX Outlook
Looking to Wednesday, movement in the Pound US Dollar exchange rate is set to be shaped by the latest PMI releases from both the UK and the US.
UK flash estimates for the manufacturing and services sectors are projected to decline, and if confirmed, could drag on the Pound by reinforcing fears of a slowdown in economic activity.
Across the Atlantic, US PMI readings are also expected to soften.
A weaker-than-expected print could add to the pressure on the US Dollar, keeping it on the back foot as the week progresses.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees a de-escalation of tensions with China.
A better mood pushed Gold sharply lower after the bright metal reached fresh record highs.
XAU/USD edges sharply lower after reaching record highs, corrective decline may continue.
Gold hit $3,500 a troy ounce on Tuesday, yet another record high. The XAU/USD pair, however, retreated from such highs and trades in the $3,390 region in the mid-American afternoon, as the US Dollar (USD) managed to recover some of the ground lost at the beginning of the week.
The Greenback got sold off on Monday amid mounting tensions between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, as the former claims Powell is not doing his job properly, and threatened to displace the central bank’s head. Trump, however, does not have the power to do so. Nevertheless, continued threats on the matter put investors in risk-off mode. Stocks plummeted at the beginning of the week alongside the Greenback, with the slides exacerbated by thin market conditions amid the Easter Holiday.
Fears cold down a bit on Tuesday, but remain in the background. Fed’s independence is under scrutiny. Additionally, tariffs hang like a Damocles’ sword. Trump’s retaliatory levies are on pause, in hopes that the US could reach a better trade deal with its counterparts. The USD found additional support, and stocks accelerated their recovery following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the current situation with China is unsustainable and that he sees a de-escalation of the situation.
The absence of first-tier data these days maintains the focus on US political and fiscal woes. A bit more action from that front will come from S&P Global, as the company will release the preliminary estimates of the April Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for most major economies on Wednesday. The figures are a barometer of economic health, and financial markets usually react to the headlines.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it retreated sharply from its record peak and trades near its daily lows. The long upward wick could anticipate an upcoming steeper decline, although the risk-averse environment could still trigger another run of Gold buying. The same chart shows technical indicators remain within overbought levels, barely losing their upward strength. At the same time, XAU/USD keeps trading far above all its moving averages, which maintain their bullish slopes.
The near-term picture suggests the corrective decline could continue. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is piercing a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading firmly higher over $200.00 below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators head sharply lower and are currently approaching their midlines from above. Further declines, should the 20 SMA get clearly pierced, could result in the pair falling towards $3,284, the April 17 intraday low.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1620 with a target of 1.1300 and a stop-loss at 1.1710.
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1430 with a target of 1.1660 and a stop-loss at 1.1360.
The persistent weakness of the US Dollar is allowing the EUR/USD bulls to push the pair to its highest level in over three years, with gains extending to the 1.1572 resistance level before settling around 1.1526 at the time of writing this analysis. This comes ahead of new statements from European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Lagarde and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index reading, both due at 15:00 Saudi time. Additionally, throughout the day, there will be statements from a number of US Federal Reserve policymakers at a time when markets are volatile due to Trump’s threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This has further exacerbated the US Dollar’s struggles in the foreign exchange markets.
Will EUR/USD Rise Further in the Coming Days, and What Are the Expected Prices?
In this regard, Forex currency experts at Deutsche Bank expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise in the long term to the 1.25 resistance level by the end of 2027, taking into account the risk of an acceleration in the pace of these gains. According to currency market trading, the EUR/USD pair remains significantly above levels that can be justified by interest rate differentials alone, amid declining dollar confidence.
For its part, MUFG commented, “If these interest rate differentials return to influencing the Forex market, the dollar is likely to recover. This means that EUR/USD will fall below the 1.1000 level.” They added, “However, we doubt this will happen at this stage, and it requires US President Trump to take more serious action in terms of reversing trade policy for the dollar to recover more sustainably.”
However, Standard Chartered sees the possibility of the dollar falling to 1.08 this quarter; “We see the US Dollar Index (DXY) as likely to rebound slightly from its current levels.” According to Standard Chartered, “We believe the recent US dollar weakness is a reaction to concerns that US policy is likely to lead to lower demand for US assets. However, a renewed focus on positive growth factors, such as tax cuts and deregulation, is likely to alleviate these concerns.”
Furthermore, Citi expects the Euro to reach high levels around $1.20 within the next six to twelve months before the US Dollar starts to appreciate again.
Trading Tips:
The EUR/USD trend will remain bullish, but be cautious about initiating profit-taking selling operations at any time.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains bullish, and breaking the 1.1550 resistance, as has already occurred, confirms the strength of the bulls’ control. Amid this performance, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stable above the 70 reading, confirming a break above the overbought barrier, and the MACD (12 and 26) is in an actual overbought zone, as is the Stochastic. Unless the Euro finds more positive momentum, we may see the start of profit-taking selling operations, but this will not lead to a reversal of the overall bullish trend without a recovery of the US Dollar.
EUR/USD Bullish Scenario:
If the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors of the Eurozone’s largest economies come in better than expected, EUR/USD may find positive momentum, thus preparing for a move above the 1.1600 resistance. Further gains beyond that will be fuelled by the increasing dispute between Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and the continuation of trade tensions.
EUR/USD Bearish Scenario:
A breakthrough in US trade tensions with other global economies, especially the Eurozone and China, may give currency traders the opportunity to move the EUR/USD pair downwards amid renewed profit-taking selling after its recent pace of gains. I still prefer selling the Euro against the US Dollar from every upward level, but without risk and while monitoring the influencing factors on the currency pair, which have been listed in the analysis.
The CADJPY kept providing negative trading, to remain stable below 61.8% Fibonacci correction level, which represents an extra barrier at 103.55, to notice by the above image, that it suffers clear losses by its stability near 101.50.
Notet that the main indicators unity by validating negative momentum, specifically reaching to 20 level, makes us prefer more of the negative trading, which might target 100.40 reaching 78.1% Fibonacci correction level at 99.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 100.40 and 102.40
Trend forecast: Bearish
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The British pound has gapped lower during the trading session on Monday against the Japanese yen and simply fell over again.
All things being equal, this is a symptom of negativity around the world.
Everybody is in a complete panic, and this continues to be a major influence on the markets.
As long as people choose to panic, they will probably be interested in owning the Japanese yen over the British pound, despite the fact that the British pound itself has been doing okay against a handful of other currencies.
Risk Appetite
Unfortunately, the whole world is on fire at the moment and as such, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of overreaction around the world. That being said, we are in the midst of a major consolidation area, so I think there is more risk to the upside if we do get more risk appetite flowing back into the market. After all, markets and the overall attitude of people around the world are so skewed to negativity that if we get some type of decent announcement coming out of the White House as far as a trade deal, then it could send this market to the upside.
Keep in mind that the ¥190 level is an area that has been important more than once, with the 50 Day EMA racing toward it to offer resistance. If we fall from here, there is a massive amount of support at the ¥185 level, where we had bounce from before then. All things being equal, this could be a scenario where the market is trying to find some type of range, but quite frankly we need to see a lot of the nonsense in other markets to get things going here. Unfortunately, people panic first before looking at the longer-term trade, and therefore volatility will continue to be something that you see here.
