• Gold price builds on Friday’s pullback from record highs of $3,245 early Monday.  
• Trump’s lower tariffs on Chinese electronics and chips offer relief to markets.
• Technically, Gold could see a brief correction before the next leg up.

Gold price is sustaining its retreat from all-time highs of $3,245 reached on Friday, reverting toward $3,200 early Monday. 

Gold price keeps a close eye on tariff talks

Having posted an outstanding 6.5% weekly gain, Gold price kicks off a new week on the back foot, pausing its three-day record-setting rally. The latest downtick in Gold price could be attributed to the positive shift in risk sentiment following a tumultuous week.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff concession on the Chinese electronics supply chain, hopes of more stimulus coming from China and Beijing’s stance of ignoring further US responses have offered markets some relief, diminishing the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price.

Trump clarified late Sunday that there will be no tariff exemption on semiconductors and the electronics supply chain but these products will be subject to the existing 20% tariffs on fentanyl and not the 145% levies.

This comes after China said on Friday that it will ignore further US responses after raising tariffs on US good to 125%, in retaliation to Trump’s 145% tariffs.

Meanwhile, Chinese policymakers vow to step up stimulus to cushion the world’s second-largest economy from the impact of the escalating trade war with the United States (US).

Gold price also bears the brunt of some progress on the US-Iran geopolitical talks. According to Reuters, US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke for around 45 minutes on Saturday, with the Trump administration reportedly satisfied with the first round of talks. The second round of negotiations are expected to continue later this week.

That said, any dip in Gold price is likely to be bought in as traders remain wary about tariff talks and ahead of Wednesday’s Chinese first-quarter growth figures. Markets also remain unnerved as the US earnings season begins later this week.

In the meantime, Gold traders will look forward to China’s March trade data. However, the data is unlikely to show the full impact of the US-Sino trade war. Later in the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to speak. Their take on Trump’s tariffs and hints on the Fed’s next interest rate move could provide some trading incentives in Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought region to currently trade near 69, suggesting that the corrective pullback will likely be shallow.

The first area of contention for sellers is at the $3,200 threshold, below which Friday’s low of $3,176 will be challenged.

Additional declines could test the $3,100 round level, followed by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance-turned-support at $3,074.

Conversely, the record high of $3,245 is the immediate topside barrier for Gold buyers. Scaling that level will open the door toward the $3,300 mark.

• Gold price reverts toward $3,200 early Monday, correcting from record highs.
• The US Dollar holds the bounce amid upbeat mood and the latest tariff news.
• Gold price looks to Fedpeak and Chinese trade data for near-term trading impetus.

Gold price is back in the red early Monday, snapping a three-day record rally to lifetime highs of $3,245 set on Friday.    

Gold price corrects on improved risk sentiment

Safe-haven flows appear to have eased in Asian trading on Monday as traders rejoice in Wall Street’s turnaround on Friday alongside some positive updates on the US-China tariff war, alleviating the bullish pressure on the Gold price for now.

On Friday, China responded to the US tariff hike to 145% by raising tariffs on American goods to 125%. However, Beijing said it would ignore further US responses.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump considered imposing 20% tariffs on Chinese semiconductors and the electronics supply chain against the previously announced 145% levies.

These tariff updates seem to be perceived positively by markets, as they provide some consolation and allow a modest recovery in the US Dollar against its major currency rivals from 35-month lows.

The US Dollar uptick and risk appetite keep the corrective downside intact in Gold price as traders await China’s Trade Balance report and speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers for further trading impetus.

Markets could use the excuse of not-so-steep tariffs on Chinese electronics and chips to take profits off the table following the recent Gold price upsurge.

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Created on April 11, 2025

• Gold has exploded to the upside yet again during the trading session on Thursday as it looks like we are getting ready to take out the all-time highs.
• That’s not a huge surprise: the only thing that’s a surprise at this point in time is how quickly it happened.
• Remember, gold got a boost during the announcement that tariffs were going to be paused for 90 days, but they were already rallying before that.

Most of what you’ve seen recently has been forced liquidation by hedge funds who were trying to cover losses in other markets. Remember, they have a leveraged book. So if they find themselves in serious trouble, for example, with the NASDAQ 100 or maybe something along the lines of levered Tesla or Nvidia positions, and sooner or later, they are forced to pay more margin and typically, what they’ll do is they will sell a market that’s done very well to collect some of those profits and send them to their prime dealer. The $3,000 level has offered support. The 50-day EMA as well, just below, has offered support and at this point in time, it looks like we are ready to go screaming higher again.

Momentum Will Slow

I don’t expect this type of momentum to continue, but I do think that the uptrend is most certainly going to be looking at the bullish flag underneath, we had a measured move of $3,300 and there’s nothing on the chart that suggests that we can’t get there. In fact, I do think we will probably go higher than that. Gold is screaming higher for a multitude of reasons, not just the fact that there’s a lot of financial stress out there, the simple fact that there’s a lot of geopolitical problems, and of course it looks like the global economy may slow down in various places. So, all this leads for a continuation of the trend that we’ve seen for the better part of a year and a half now.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

LNG Exports Remain Firm, But Demand Risk Lingers

Despite macro headwinds, LNG exports held strong. Net flows to US export terminals reached 16.3 Bcf/d on Friday, up 9.1% week-over-week. This remains a key area of support for prices. Traders are also watching US storage levels, which BloombergNEF projects will be 10% below the five-year average by summer—keeping bullish positioning alive even as near-term drivers remain mixed.

Storage Injection Caps Upside Despite Supply Tightness

EIA data showed a +57 Bcf injection for the week ended April 4, broadly in line with expectations but well above the five-year average of +17 Bcf for this period. Storage remains 2.1% below the five-year norm and 19.8% under last year, signaling tight underlying supply. Still, the size of the injection gave the market little reason to rally.

Dry gas production held at 106.2 Bcf/d, up 4.7% y/y, while demand reached 76.7 Bcf/d, up 11.4% y/y. Electricity output rose 4.05% y/y, suggesting firm baseline power burn, but not yet summer-driven demand.

Mixed Weather and Modest Rig Uptick Add Pressure

Weather outlooks are neutral to slightly bearish. The Commodity Weather Group sees above-normal temps in the West and seasonal conditions elsewhere from April 16–20—limiting late-season heating demand. Baker Hughes reported an increase of one rig, bringing the gas rig count to 97, still historically low but off recent lows.

Market Forecast: Slightly Bearish Bias Ahead

With trade tension clouding demand outlooks and weather offering no near-term support, nat-gas looks vulnerable to further downside. LNG flows and tight storage remain bullish anchors, but unless a weather or export catalyst emerges, price action may continue to drift lower in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The price of gold (GOLD) has moved higher strongly in its recent intraday trading, supported by positive signals from relative strength indicators (RSI), reaching our first target to test the current resistance level of $3,053. This comes amid the dominance of the main upward trend, with trading occurring near the trend line.

Just two weeks ago, copper prices were climbing fast due to the US stockpiling ahead of new tariffs. Traders warned that new US tariffs on copper could squeeze global supply. But things turned around quickly. But now, the copper rally has reversed into a full-blown crash.

This is a direct outcome of President Donald Trump’s trade war, aka “Trump Tariffs,” that is shaking the global market. Investors now fear that the new tariffs will slow down demand for copper worldwide.

The Copper Price Shock: Traders Scramble, Markets Tumble

Bloomberg reported, on Friday, April 4, copper prices dropped sharply, along with stock markets. The fall continued till Monday. In the London Metal Exchange, copper prices sank as much as 7.7% before bouncing back slightly to $8,735 a ton.

Earlier, we saw how traders rushed to send copper to the US before tariffs hit, driving premiums as high as $500 a ton. Big players like Mercuria and Trafigura even predicted prices could reach $12,000 a ton. But things changed rapidly when Trump shortened the tariff timeline, giving buyers very few days in hand.

Because of this, copper is piling up outside the US. Global buyers have more to choose from, but many aren’t interested. With demand dropping due to tariffs, the extra supply doesn’t help.

Chile’s Price Cut Signals Looming Economic Strain

Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, is preparing to lower its copper price estimate for 2025. It’s a telltale sign of growing global economic concerns.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Chile’s copper agency, Cochilco, held its 2025 price forecast at $4.25 per pound in February. This came after it raised the estimate from $3.85 back in May 2024.

It also kept the 2026 forecast at $4.25. Cochilco expects copper prices to stay above $4.00 per pound for the next ten years.

• But the new data show copper prices to average between $3.90 and $4 per pound this year, which is below its previous forecast.

The final figure will be announced by the end of April. However, Juan Ignacio Guzman, head of Chilean mineral consulting firm GEM, said,

“If the trade war triggers a recession, prices could tumble to as low as $3 a pound — or about $6,600 a ton.”

Chile, which produced 24% of the world’s copper last year, is now feeling the pressure.

In a separate report from the Shanghai Metals Market, we discovered that,

• Chilean Customs data showed that Chile exported 182,338 metric tons of refined copper, including 33,496 metric tons to China in March.
• Exports of copper ore and concentrate totaled 1,304,782 metric tons, with China receiving 810,135 metric tons in the same month.

Earlier this year, in January and February, Chile’s copper production dropped compared to the previous month. Exports to China also declined during that period.

Analysts Warn of More Trouble Ahead

The Bloomberg report highlighted that the worst might not be over. Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., warned that the global trade shake-up could lead to a historic market correction. Citi now expects copper prices outside the US to average $8,500 this quarter — but they also say the risk of further drops is high.

BNP Paribas SA strategist David Wilson, who had warned prices could collapse, now sees the downtrend continuing in the short term. Goldman Sachs still believes in copper’s long-term value but admits that slower global growth could delay the expected supply shortage.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan now expects the US to fall into a recession this year. UBS estimates that every 1% drop in US GDP could cut output in export-driven Asian economies like Taiwan and South Korea by up to 2%.

China’s 34% Tariff Sparks Copper Stock Rout

Copper stocks have taken a beating amid falling prices, global slowdown fears, and rising trade tensions. The sharp selloff followed news from China’s Xinhua News Agency that Beijing will impose a 34% tariff on all US imports starting April 10.

Here’s a quick look at how major mining companies are reacting:

• Freeport-McMoRan: Shares dropped 13.1% in a single day. The stock is down 24.1% this week, bringing its market value to $41.9 billion.
• BHP Group and Rio Tinto: BHP’s shares fell 9.5%, cutting its value to $107.3 billion. Rio Tinto’s dropped 6.4%, is now valued at $93.5 billion. Both saw trading volumes nearly triple the usual.
• Southern Copper: Based in Mexico, the company fell 9.6% on Friday alone, pushing its weekly loss to 16.7%. Its market value now stands at $62.4 billion.
• Zijin Mining: This Chinese mining giant lost 7.2%, dropping to a market cap of $56.9 billion. It’s one of the few firms producing over 1 million tonnes of copper a year.
• Glencore and Anglo American: Glencore dropped 11.5%, while London-listed Anglo American fell 11%. Their market caps now stand at $36.9 billion and $28.6 billion, respectively. Both are down about 20% this week.
• Canadian Miners (Teck Resources, Ivanhoe Mines, First Quantum): Canadian copper stocks saw sharp losses. Teck dropped 12.1%, Ivanhoe fell 12.6%, and First Quantum slid 12.8% as investors pulled back across the board.
• Hindustan Copper: In India, shares fell 5.4% over the past five days and are down 15.7% so far in 2025.

KNOW MORE: Copper Prices Slump Below $9,000: What Does It Mean for Global Growth?

What started as a bullish rush has turned into a brutal crash. With tariffs rising and demand shrinking, copper is now a symbol of deeper market fears. Global supply chains are out of sync, and the world’s top miners are feeling the heat. If trade tensions escalate, this copper price crash may face a difficult recovery.