Brent crude oil price declined in its recent intraday trading, attempting to gain positive momentum that may help the price breach the current resistance at $64.80. At the same time, it is working to relieve the clear overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), supported by the strong rally seen in yesterday’s session, announcing the start of a bullish corrective wave.

So, with all of that being said, I think you have a situation here where you very well could see natural gas continue to be noisy, but I think ultimately the real question is, can we break down below the $3.50 level? Because if we do, then I think you have a real shot at natural gas breaking down for the season, which is what I would expect given enough time, at least in normal years, that’s what you typically see.

So, with all of that being said, I find this a market that I’m looking for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies to start shorting. I think the $4 level will now start to act as a bit of a ceiling. And if we can break above the $4.20 level, then we could go to the $4.50 level, which I think is even more resistive. So, I’m looking for a short-term pop, signs of exhaustion, and then I short, that’s how I’ve been playing this for a couple of weeks now.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price surged as escalating US-China trade tensions reignited safe-haven demand.
• President Trump announced an immediate tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125% shortly after China raised duties.
• China’s Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% YoY in March, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and extending February’s 0.7% drop.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to climb for the second straight day, trading near $31.10 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The grey metal surged nearly 4% in the previous session, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following escalating US-China trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, shortly after China raised reciprocal duties on US goods to 84%. This tit-for-tat escalation overshadowed a broader trade de-escalation effort, where the US had temporarily lowered tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate negotiations with other countries.

Meanwhile, markets are digesting the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which suggested near-unanimous concern among policymakers over the dual threat of rising inflation and slowing growth—highlighting potential “difficult tradeoffs” for the Fed.

The non-yielding Silver metal may attract fresh buying interest following the release of China’sthat Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which reinforces dovish expectations for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy outlook. China’s CPI fell 0.1% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise and following a 0.7% drop in February. On a monthly basis, CPI declined 0.4%, steeper than both February’s 0.2% decrease and market expectations. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) slipped 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding the previous 2.2% drop and the projected 2.3% decline, signaling continued deflationary pressures in the economy.

Despite intensifying trade frictions, Fed officials emphasized a data-dependent approach to policy. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s meeting. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US CPI and PPI data on Friday for further clarity on the Fed’s rate path.

• Gold price consolidates the previous rebound after testing $3,100 early Thursday.  
• Deepening US-China trade war and renewed US Dollar downtick support Gold price.
• Gold price broke the range to the upside as the daily RSI reclaimed the 50 level.
• Gold buyers look forward to the US CPI data for the next trading impetus.

Gold price is biding time near $3,100 in Asian trading on Thursday, gathering strength for the next push higher. The further upside in the Gold price depends on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Gold price braces for US CPI amid US-China trade woes

Despite the latest pause in the Gold price turnaround, the US-China trade war escalation will likely keep the demand for safe havens such as Gold intact. The tit-for-tat game for the US and China is just getting bigger, with Beijing preparing to deepen the China-EU trade, indirectly taking aim at American companies, per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

This report came after US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a 90-day ‘pause’ on reciprocal tariffs of 10% for all countries except for China. Trump raised the tariff rate for China to 125%, effective immediately.

Earlier on Wednesday, Beijing hit back at Trump’s 104% tariffs with its own additional tariffs of 84%, up from the previous 34%, on all American goods. Amidst tariff headlines still driving markets, investors continue to remain unnerved and prefer to hold on to the traditional store of value, Gold, heading toward the US CPI inflation showdown.

Increased expectations that the Trump-inflicted global trade war would cause higher inflation and tip the economy into recession keep the odds for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) elevated. Dovish Fed bets remain supportive of the Gold price upside.

Therefore, it remains to be seen if the US March CPI report signals rising inflationary pressures, calling for the Fed’s prudence on future rate cuts. The non-interest-bearing Gold price will likely resume its corrective downside in such a scenario. However, any reaction to the US CPI data could be short-lived as tariff headlines will continue to play a pivotal role.

The US CPI is expected to rise 2.6% annually in March after increasing 2.8% in February.  The core CPI inflation is seen a tad lower at 3% in the same period versus February’s 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and core CPI are forecast to rise 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, in March.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily time frame favors Gold buyers, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding firm above the midline, currently near 60.

On Wednesday, Gold price settled above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,036, breaking out of this week’s range and opening the door for more upside.

Softer-than-expected US CPI readings would ramp up odds for a May Fed rate cut, bolstering the Gold price recovery to test the $3,150 psychological barrier.

The record high of $3,168 will be next on buyers’ radars, above which the $3,200 round level will be challenged.

If the US inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected, it would imply another pause by the Fed next month, smashing the yieldless Gold.

Gold price could find immediate respite at the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support, now at $3,048.

Additional declines could threaten the $3,000 mark, below which a test of the 50-day SMA at $2,960 will be inevitable.

Platinum price continued forming the bullish correctional trading, surpassing the obstacle at $920.00, to begin recording some of the gains by reaching $930.00, getting advantage from the continuation of the positive momentum that come from stochastic, which approaches from 50 level.

Reminding you that the bullish suggestion on the current trading will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $895.00, to expect reaching 50%Fibonacci correction level at $950.00, and surpassing it will lead the price to test the resistance at $961.00

The expected trading range for today is between $920.00 and $950.00

Trend forecast: Bullish