• Silver price drifts higher to near $29.85 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
• Trump’s tariff uncertainty and fears of global recession boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price. 
• The FOMC Meeting Minutes Will take center stage later on Wednesday.

The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $29.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Analysts believe the recent correction could be a setup for a strong rebound amid rising trade tensions and recession fears. Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday. 

US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to impose sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies. However, he hinted that he could be open to some negotiations.

Trump’s remarks came after his top officials sent signals about the administration’s willingness to engage with trade partners, with a 10% tariff already in place and targeted retaliatory import tariffs scheduled for Wednesday. This uncertainty has spurred global market volatility and boosted the safe-haven demand, supporting the Silver price. 

Additionally, industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, provides some support to the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings. 

Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

The price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continued to decline in its recent intraday trading, settling below the key support level of $77,000, confirming its break. This increases the possibility of further price decline, especially as it trades near a descending minor trendline within the main bearish trend in the short term, with additional confirming signals from the Relative Strength Index indicators (RSI), despite reaching excessive oversold areas.

Measured Moves Matched

As shown on the chart, there have been two previous large downswings since the 2023 peak of $95.50. The first (A) found a bottom after a 29% price correction and the second ended after a 25.3% decline. As of this week’s low, the current bearish correction has crude oil down by 28%. Once there is symmetry between the swings, there is a chance for signs of support and the completion of the correction. It is another piece of technical evidence identifying a potential short-term low in crude oil.

Reaching Oversold Conditions

The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to oversold levels and the test of support near the lower end of the trend channel is also a sign that the price of crude may be oversold. Nonetheless, selling pressure remains as the closing price today will be a new low for the bearish correction.

Upside Potential?

I decisive advance above Tuesday’s high of $61.88 would be needed for signs of strength that may continue. Once the lower blue channel line is exceeded to the upside the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $63.57 becomes a target. Also, Monday’s high at $64.05 is close by. If strength can be maintained above that level, the next higher target zone is around previous price support and the 50% retracement level at $65.41 to $65.27, respectively.

Since that price zone may have greater significance given the previous long-term support level (now resistance), it looks like there is a good chance it is reached if there is a bullish reversal before new lows. Then, after the 50% level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.37 and the 20-Day MA, now at $67.69, become the next upside target.

Bearish Continuation would Target $57.21

On the downside, the next lower price zone identified for potential support is from $57.21 to $56.37. Crude is well on its way to reaching the price zone and therefore it may do so, and it may be soon.

Inside Day Consolidation

The inside day pattern may complete as a bearish doji shooting start candlestick pattern. Although that pattern is typically more reliable at market tops, it still reflects sellers being in control for the day, as the day’s closing price is set to be near the lows of the day. Therefore, a decline below $2,975 will trigger a breakdown of the inside day shooting star pattern.

Shows Relative Strength

Gold has held up better than many assets during recent global market volatility as it has only fallen by 6.7% and it remains above the 50-Day MA. Although dropping below the rising trendline and 20-Day MA are signs of weakness, the relationship to the 50-Day line is now key support. If gold remains above the 50-Day MA, it has a chance for the advance to continue. But a decisive decline below the 50-Day line could change that.

50-Day Moving Average Support is Key

Lower potential support levels that are below the 50-Day line, include a 78.6% retracement level at $2,904, a 50% retracement of a larger swing at $2,875, and a prior interim swing low at $2,833. Those price areas can be watched for possible support along with the next lower long-term uptrend line (purple). If the 50-Day MA fails as support, the next trend indicator is the purple uptrend line, and therefore it has a good chance of being reached if gold drops below and then stays below the 50-Day MA.

Upside Breakout Faces 20-Day Moving Average

On the upside, a one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3,023 may lead to a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA at $3,036. Then there is Monday’s high of $3,055. Gold would need to trade above and stay above $2,023 before it has a chance to challenge recent highs.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver bounces from $28.33 after failed bearish breakout, reclaiming $29.80 with eyes set on $30.00 resistance.
• Technical setup turns bullish as RSI exits oversold territory and hammer pattern signals momentum shift.
• Daily close above $29.70 could open door to $30.87 (200-day SMA), while downside risk emerges below $29.50.

Silver price sellers failed to decisively clear support at $28.75 daily, and buyers stepped in near yearly lows of $28.33, pushing the grey metal’s price back above $29.80 with traders eyeing the $30.00 mark. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $29.89, up 0.89%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s downtrend stalled and it might be poised for a leg-up due to some technical factors: the formation of a hammer, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exiting oversold conditions, with the index punching above the 30 level, a signal that usually is bullish for traders.

Furthermore, XAG/USD trades above the January 25 low of  $29.70, and a daily close above the latter could sponsor a test of the $30.00 level. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.87, followed by the $31.00 mark.

On the other hand, a drop below $29.50 could pave the way for further downside, with the next support being $29.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low of $28.33.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Crude oil prices (Crude Oil) have dropped in recent intraday trading, as negative signals from the relative strength indicators have started to appear again. This follows the price’s success in surpassing its previous overbought conditions, amidst the dominance of the main downward trend in the short term.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,983.25

• The White House announced 104% tariffs on China starting April 9.
• Chinese authorities will keep fighting US tariffs, details on counter-measures still missing.
• XAU/USD is at risk of falling further according to near-term technical readings.

Gold price hovered above the $3,000 mark for most of this Tuesday, as tariffs-related panic eased, leading to a modest recovery in global equities. The XAU/USD pair pierced the figure in the American session, but trades within a limited intraday range, as trade war-related headlines keep rocking the board.

The tepid good mood seen throughout the first half of the day soured on headlines indicating that the White House Press Secretary said 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon Eastern time because China has not removed its retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow, April 9. Wall Street holds on to the green, but trimmed half of its early gains, helping the US Dollar (USD) across the board.

Earlier in the day, China’s Commerce Ministry said they would “fight to the end” against US tariffs. There were no specific details on how Beijing will retaliate, but indeed, the answer is coming. Additionally, Chinese authorities noted that if the United States (US) wants to talk, it should show respect. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian added that “We will continue to take resolute and strong measures to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests.”

The world keeps revolving around US President Donald Trump’s trade war, and the recent calm is just a pause. Turmoil is expected to continue in the upcoming days, as more major economies are likely to announce countermeasures.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that the intraday spike was quickly reversed, and that the pair trades at fresh daily lows in the $2,970.00 region. The risk remains skewed to the downside, as Gold develops below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which lacks clear directional strength. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, yet technical indicators stand well below their midlines, partially losing their bearish strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is clearer. A bearish 20 SMA crossed below a flat 100 SMA, while XAU/USD is currently sliding below the 200 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remain within negative levels without certain directional strength.

Support levels: 2,970.30 2,959.00 2,942.50

Resistance levels: 2,998.30 3,015.55 3,022.60