• Gold price slumps to near $2,985 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• The stock market selloff has prompted investors to cover losses. 
• Intensifying trade war and geopolitical risks could boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Gold price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $2,985 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by some profit-taking. The precious metal extends the decline as a fall in the US stock market has prompted traders to liquidate gold positions to create the necessary liquidity to cover losses in the stock market.

The recent sharp sell-off in the US stock market on Friday was about raising cash to cover margin calls after US President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on goods from many countries. However, the downside for the yellow metal might be limited due to the supportive fundamentals. “Bargain hunters will rush in next week to buy cheap gold and silver, helping the precious metals to rally again,” said Rich Checkan, chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International.

Additionally, the global economic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration’s Oleksandr Prokudin reported. Despite the volatility,” gold is still a safe-haven place for many investors,” said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index.

Production Holds Steady Despite Falling Rig Counts

Despite a drop in the U.S. natural gas rig count—down seven last week to just 96—output remains strong. Lower-48 dry gas production averaged 106.4 Bcf/d on Friday, up over 4% from a year ago. This persistent output is meeting softening demand head-on. Industrial and residential usage remains subdued, and power burn, while stable, has yet to show the typical seasonal ramp-up. The result is a market with more supply than it currently needs, particularly in the absence of weather-related demand spikes.

Did the Latest Storage Report Shift Market Expectations?

Yes. The EIA reported a 29 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending March 28, well above the five-year average draw for that period. While inventories are still 21.5% lower than last year and 4.3% below the five-year norm, the size of the early injection signaled that mild weather and excess supply are beginning to rebuild stockpiles earlier than expected. This has added to the near-term bearish tone, especially as traders focus on the potential for larger-than-usual builds in the coming weeks.

Can LNG Exports Offset Domestic Weakness?

LNG exports remain a bright spot, with flows to U.S. export terminals holding near 15.5 Bcf/d. While down slightly from the prior week, they continue to support baseline demand. Longer term, President Trump’s move to lift restrictions on LNG export project approvals has reactivated a backlog of infrastructure proposals. If even a portion of these projects moves forward, it would meaningfully increase export capacity and help balance domestic oversupply. For now, however, the export story is more supportive for long-term pricing than for the current supply-demand mismatch.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near Term on Demand and Supply Imbalance

The short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Weaker weather-driven demand, strong production, and early-season storage builds are tilting the market toward oversupply. Unless colder weather unexpectedly returns or LNG demand accelerates, prices may continue to face downward pressure in the week ahead.

Chile, the world’s largest producer of copper, is preparing to slash its official price estimate for 2025, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

The Chilean government will cut the estimated average price to $3.90 to $4 a pound from a current projection for the year of $4.25 a pound, the WSJ said, citing a person familiar with the preliminary calculations.

Chile will publish the revised price estimate at the end of April, the newspaper said.

In February, Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, held its 2025 price forecast steady at $4.25 after raising it from $3.85 in May 2024.

The commission also extended the $4.25 forecast for 2026 and said it expected copper prices to remain over $4.00 a pound for the next decade.

Commodities prices including oil and other goods fell this week after new US tariffs fueled fears of a global recession.

(By Rishabh Jaiswal; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

CHART: Mining stocks massacre as copper price craters by 9%

However, this type of pressure is viewed as mechanical rather than sentiment-driven. Gold remains up over 15% this year, supported by record central bank buying, strong institutional interest, and ETF inflows. The pullback may prove temporary unless supported by fresh macro shifts.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Recession Fears Still Dominate

The underlying drivers of the rally are unchanged. Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian now puts U.S. recession odds at 50%, while Goldman Sachs raised its estimate to 35%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs are “larger than expected,” with fallout likely to include both slower growth and elevated inflation. With global supply chains under renewed stress, gold’s role as a hedge remains central.

Next Week Brings CPI and Fed Minutes Into Focus

Traders will be glued to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s CPI report. If the Fed minutes show internal debate or reluctance to ease aggressively, that could temper some of the rate-cut enthusiasm priced into markets. Conversely, if CPI surprises to the upside, it would reinforce inflation risks and justify gold’s safe-haven appeal—even if policy remains cautious. On Friday, consumer sentiment data could further illuminate how recent market stress is filtering through to inflation expectations.

Gold Prices Projection: Pullback Offers Opportunity as Macro Drivers Remain Supportive

Trump’s Tariffs Hit Industrial Demand and Sentiment

President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs and targeted measures against China triggered a reassessment of global trade flows and manufacturing prospects. Semiconductor tariffs are particularly bearish for silver, given its widespread industrial applications. China’s response—slapping a 34% levy on all American goods—adds to fears of a drawn-out trade war. The result has been a sharp drop in global demand expectations, particularly in Asia and Europe, two major industrial buyers of silver.

Margin Calls Force Liquidation Across Commodities

A violent decline in equities—highlighted by a 2,000+ point drop in Dow futures—unleashed margin call selling across the board. Silver was hit especially hard as investors were forced to exit positions to cover losses elsewhere. While gold also saw liquidation, its safe-haven bid helped cushion losses. For silver, with weaker monetary demand and no central bank support, the impact was deeper and more sustained.

Dollar Strength, Yields, and Fed Signals in Focus

Silver’s weakness was compounded by a rising U.S. dollar and an uptick in real yields. Treasury markets stabilized after strong jobs data, pushing the 10-year yield back near 3.88%. The dollar gained as expectations for aggressive Fed cuts were scaled back. Traders now turn their attention to this week’s Fed minutes and Thursday’s CPI report, both of which could reshape policy expectations. If the minutes signal hesitation to ease, or if CPI comes in hot, silver could face further headwinds from tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar.

Market Forecast: Silver Likely to Remain Under Pressure

• Silver breaks below 100- and 200-day SMAs, signals strong bearish momentum amid escalating US-China tariff battle.
• RSI enters oversold territory, but selling pressure may continue toward $28.74 and $27.71 if $29 fails to hold.
• A recovery above $30 could see buyers retest $30.86 SMA and key resistance near $31.00.

 Silver price plummeted on Friday as financial market turmoil continued for the third straight day, following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose reciprocal tariffs. Consequently, China retaliated, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown. The XAG/USD trades at $29.55, sinking more than 7%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On its way lower, Silver fell below the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on Friday, indicating a strong sell-off, once the grey metal cleared $31.39 and $30.86, respectively. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish and oversold, due to the aggressiveness of the move, XAG/USD could continue to edge lower.

If XAG/USD falls below $29.00, this could expose the December 19 swing low of $28.74. Once surpassed, the next support would be the September 3 low of $27.71. Conversely, if XAG/USD climbs past $30.00, buyers could be poised to challenge the 200-day SMA at $30.86, followed by the $31 mark.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.