US crude oil price edged lower in latest intraday trading on profit-taking, while trying to gather positive momentum to rebound once more, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the Stochastic reached oversold levels compared to the price’s movements, hinting at positive divergence, which would reinforce the positive scenario.

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Resistance Seen After Targets Hit

During Monday’s advance to a high of $72.07, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an interim downswing, was completed at $71.84, and the 161.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern was reached at $71.01. Signs of strength were shown with a reclaim of the 50-Day MA and a breakout above the 31.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $71.26. The ABCD pattern target is 161.8% of the price appreciation seen in the first leg up of the pattern, labeled AB. It reflects a harmonic relationship between the two swings based on price. Once that occurs there is a greater potential for resistance to be seen.

New Trend High Fails

Notice that the ABCD pattern target was almost an exact match with Monday’s high. Moreover, observe that Monday’s strong 3.37% advance was preceded by an undercut of the prior day’s low and a successful test of support at a lower trendline. That is when buyers took back control and drove the price above the highs of the previous three days.

The line represented resistance previously as shown by an interim swing high (B). This type of behavior before a strong move is not unusual. Therefore, it is a pattern of behavior that will likely be seen again either in crude oil or other financial assets.

50-Day MA Support is Key

Although it looks like crude oil could keep climbing to the next higher price target, the fact that two targets mark a resistance zone and there is a bearish daily pattern, suggests a pullback first. A breakdown below today’s low of $71.34 will trigger the bearish shooting star pattern. The 50-Day MA is currently at $70.64 and it now represents a key potential short-term support area. Higher targets for crude oil include the confluence of the 200-Day MA, now at $73.13, and the 50% retracement at $73.08.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price finds fresh buyers near $3,110 on US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’.
• Investors prefer to seek safety in the traditional store of value, anticipating Trump’s tariffs.  
• The daily RSI re-enters the heavily overbought zone, warranting caution for Gold buyers.

Gold price regains traction on ‘Liberation Day’, having found fresh demand near the $3,110 region. The further upside in Gold price hinges on the highly anticipated US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” later this Wednesday.

Gold price awaits Trump’s tariffs for a fresh directional impetus

In the countdown to Trump’s tariffs announcement from the Rose Garden at 19:00 GMT, the Gold price could take some cues from the upcoming US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change for March. Markets are expecting the US private sector payrolls to rise by 105,000 after a modest gain of 77,000 in February.

Increased signs of US labor market slackening could reinforce interest rate cuts bets from the Federal Reserve (Fed), driving the non-yielding Gold price further north. However, any reaction to the US data will likely be short-lived as the main event risk on the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ is Trump’s big tariff reveal.

On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the White House is considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on almost all US trading partners. Late Monday, President Trump rejected plans for narrower tariffs

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent singled out what he called the “Dirty 15” — the 15% of countries that trade heavily with the US and have high tariffs. However, late Tuesday, Bessent clarified that the amounts announced on Wednesday are the highest the tariffs will reach, adding that the countries could then take steps to lower the tariffs. 

Additionally, traders are looking forward to the automobile tariffs, which are set to take effect on April 3. In anticipation of these US tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them, Gold investors prefer to park their capital in the traditional safe-haven Gold price, fuelling another run to fresh record highs of $3,149 set on Tuesday.

That said, if the details of Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ disappoint, in terms of the President announcing lower or targeted tariffs or leaving the door open for negotiations, risk sentiment is likely to rebound sharply, diminishing the appeal of safe-havens such as Gold price. In such a case, Gold price could see a steep corrective decline toward the $3,050 level.

On the other hand, if Trump’s tariffs signal a deepening of the global trade war and economic headwinds for the US economy, Gold price could stage a fresh uptrend toward the $3,200 level.

All in all, the US tariff announcement will dictate the Gold price action in the sessions ahead.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Following Tuesday’s brief pullback, Gold price is reverting toward the record high of $3,149 early Wednesday.

The next upside target is at the rising trendline resistance at $3,158. Only a sustained move above that level will initiate a fresh uptrend to test the $3,200 threshold.

However, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) having re-entered the highly overbought region, currently at 76.30, risks remain in place for a decent Gold price correction.

On the downside, Gold price could challenge the $3,100 round level, below which this week’s low of $3,077 will be tested.

The $3,050 psychological barrier will be next on sellers’ radars.

Normal Pullback Expected

A bull breakout of a descending wedge trend continuation pattern triggered last Thursday and led to a rally into resistance at Monday’s high of $4.25. The current pullback is typical following a breakout as prior resistance areas are tested as support. Once support is found there is the potential for another advance. The weekly chart is also supportive of such a scenario.

On Monday a bullish weekly reversal triggered above last week’s high of $4.10, following a two-week pullback. Although it quickly failed there is the potential for this week to end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low. Therefore, traders and investors will likely be watching the current bearish pullback for signs of support that may lead to a bullish reversal.

50-Day Moving Average Support

Notice that the 50-Day MA was clearly a support area during the early-March swing low. During the recent correction it was undercut for a couple days and then reclaimed relatively quickly. Therefore, during this decline natural gas could dip below the 50-Day line briefly but should recover quickly. If it does not and there is a daily close below the moving average, then the risk of further downside increases.

Trendline Support Dynamics

Since the higher trendline support was broken mid-March, there is the possibility of eventually testing the next lower trendline before a bearish correction is complete. Since the line is rising it will represent a price above the recent corrective low of $3.73 around April 14 (vertical). Given the overall pattern and potential support around the 50-Day line, there is the possibility of seeing consolidation until then between the recent low and this week’s high.

The next lower trendline has three points thereby marking it as a solid line. Therefore, it should act as support the first time it is approached, or a break below could lead to a sharp drop given the potential significance of the trendline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,107.41

• US President Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.
• Financial markets remain cautious but fears receded, and Wall Street advances.
• XAU/USD corrective decline set to continue below $3,100 in the near term.

The pair posted yet another record high, hitting $3,149.04 on Tuesday. The risk-averse environment backed the bright metal as market players gear up for tariffs’ announcements.

United States (US) President Donald Trump has been long anticipating a massive levies announcement for April 2, with little detail on the extent of taxes. Market players fear the so-called Liberation Day will include massive tariffs that can affect the global economy. Trump will unveil his plans in a Rose Garden press conference scheduled for Wednesday at 19:00 GMT

Gold changed course after Wall Street’s opening despite the US Dollar (USD) weakening on the back of poor local data. On the one hand, the number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 7.56 million, according to the JOLTS Job Openings report, pretty much unchanged from the 7.76 million openings reported in January. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 49 in March, down from the 50.3 posted in February, while missing expectations of 49.5.

Further weighing on Gold price, Wall Street managed to shrug off Monday’s dismal mood and the three major indexes trade in the green at the time of writing.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair retreats towards $3,100, as profit taking ahead of major and a better market mood take their toll. The daily chart shows the pair is in the red, yet also that it posted a higher high and a higher low, limiting its bearish potential. The same chart shows technical indicators turned lower, but remain within overbought levels. Finally, all moving averages remain far below the current level and heading higher, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,001.00.

The near-term picture suggests the bright metal could extend its slide in the upcoming sessions. Technical indicators head firmly lower in the 4-hour chart, although still holding above their midlines. At the same time, the intraday slide stalled just above a bullish 20 SMA, the latter acting as dynamic support at $3,097.20. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their downward slopes far below the current level.

Support levels: 3,097.50 3,082.90 3,068.90

Resistance levels: 3,122.85 3,136.70 3,150.00

Price Vibrates Within Trend Channels

Is there significance to the day’s high of $3,149 that is supportive of a pullback? That high happens to be near resistance represented by a top parallel trend channel line (blue) and a $3,153 target, The target is the 261.8% extension of the retracement from the February decline (BC). Although the top blue channel line was initially exceeded earlier in the day’s trading session, the subsequent bearish reaction indicates that resistance has been seen around that price area.

The blue channel line represents a rising channel that is the second and shorter of two channels that are outlined on the enclosed chart. The larger channel is outlined with purple lines and the shorter with blue lines. A rising parallel channel can help spot potential support or resistance as a trend progresses higher.

Weakening Momentum

Yesterday, the upper boundary of the larger channel was exceeded to the upside, establishing today’s support level at that line. In other words, prior resistance has been recognized as support, which can be a bullish sign. That advance also triggered a potential bull breakout of the larger channel. It is a potential breakout as it needs to be sustained and followed by further signs of strength. So far, that is not the case and therefore today’s bearish behavior may lead to a failed channel breakout. If the bearish shooting star triggers, initial potential support areas look to be around $3,077 and $3,058.

Bullish Continuation Targets $3,170

There remains a possibility that the larger channel breakout is retained by support continuing around or above the top purple line. However, the breakout of the channel is a sign of potential overbought conditions, along with the overbought position of the relative strength index (RSI). If that is the case then a more specific test of the $3,153 target could occur, gold extends higher towards the next target of $3,170.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.