US crude oil price kept rising in latest intraday trading, after considerable gains yesterday that pushed the price to February highs, while buoyed by the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside the trend line, with positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

However, we’re noticing a slowdown in the pace of gains in latest intraday trading due to profit-taking, while the price tries to vent off overbought saturation from the Stochastic, as negative signals emerge from it.

• Gold price sits at fresh record highs above $3,130 early Tuesday, awaits Wednesday’s US tariffs announcement.
• US President Trump’s pushback on narrower tariffs weighs again on the US Dollar, Treasury yields.
• The daily RSI remains heavily overbought, suggesting a likely correction in the Gold price?

Gold price closes in on the $3,150 psychological mark in Asian trading on Tuesday, extending its record rally. Gold buyers eagerly await the US announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on Wednesday for a fresh directional impetus. In the meantime, tariff updates and top-tier US data will likely keep them entertained.

Gold price remains unstoppable on tariff woes

The traditional safe-haven Gold price sees a fresh leg higher early Tuesday after pulling back slightly from record highs in the late American session on Monday. Tensions over Wednesday’s US tariff announcement and its economic fallout reignited after President Donald Trump rejected plans for narrower tariffs late Monday, noting that his reciprocal tariffs plan will target all other countries.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent singled out what he called the “Dirty 15” — the 15% of countries that trade heavily with the US and have high tariffs. Bessent added that Trump will announce these tariffs on April 2 at 19:00 GMT.

Renewed tensions surrounding the scope of the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ fuelled a fresh bout of US Dollar (USD) selling as the trade barriers are expected to dent the US economic prospects.

A potential US stagflation could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver aggressive interest rate cuts. This narrative weighs heavily on the USD and the US Treasury bond yields, while the Gold price challenges record highs.

The bright metal also capitalises on increased buying from central banks and rising exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows amid the market unrest and panic. Gold price remains on course for its strongest quarter since 1986.

However, the Gold price could witness another pullback in the sessions ahead if traders adjust their long positions in anticipation of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2. Markets could also use the US economic data releases as an excuse to take profits off the table, bracing for Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs,’ which are expected to induce intense volatility.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart indicates that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the highly overbought region, currently at 78.50, suggesting that buyers may be exhausted.

Therefore, a brief pullback could ensue, dragging Gold price back toward the $3,100 round level.   

The next relevant support is seen at the previous day’s low of $3,077, below which the $3,050 psychological barrier will be tested.

On the flip side, Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the $3,150 threshold to initiate a fresh advance toward the $3,200 level.

Potential Higher Target

An initial target from the bull wedge is the beginning of the wedge at $4.26. That target was essentially satisfied today. Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean the advance is over, but maybe natural gas takes a rest first via a pullback or consolidation before attempting higher prices. Also, when adding the height in price to the breakout level, an alternative potential target of $4.40 is established. As with all targets they are estimates that may or may not be reached.

Drop Below $4.06 Points to a Likely Pullback

A decline below Monday’s low of $4.055 is a sign of further short-term weakening that could lead to a move lower to test prior resistance areas as support. Two initial price areas to watch for signs of support include prior support from the mid-March interim swing low at $3.96, and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.87. It is interesting to note that the breakout of the top line of the wedge occurred at a similar price area.

Following the reclaim of the 50-Day MA on February 13, the 50-Day line successfully tested as support in early-March and a higher swing low was established. Although the recent decline failed to find support at the 50-Day MA, the subsequent quick bullish recovery can be viewed as a successful test of support at the 50-Day line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver prints a ‘high wave candle,’ signaling market indecision after 5% rally over four sessions.
• A close above $34 keeps bullish momentum intact; targets lie at $34.58 YTD high and $35.40 October 2012 peak.
• Break below $34 may trigger correction toward $33.51 support, with $33.00 as next bearish target.

Silver price falls slightly after hitting a daily high of $34.46, trading at $34.02 amid a strong US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields.

Market mood improved slightly, but traders are awaiting April 2, US Liberation Day, on which US President Donald Trump is expected to unveil tariffs. Speculation suggests that the US will apply 20% universal tariffs.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver remains upward biased, despite retreating somewhat as a ‘high wave candle’ forms. After climbing over 5% in the last four days, indecision keeps buyers and sellers from opening fresh aggressive bets, as they could be awaiting the closing price.

If XAG/USD closes above $34, this could be bullish and pave the way for further upside. The first resistance will be the year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58. On further strength, the next ceiling level would be $35.00, followed by the October 2012 peak at $35.40.

Conversely, if XAG/USD falls below $34.00, the first support will be the March 31 low of $33.51, followed by the $33.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Gold price resumed its advance in latest intraday trading after trying to collect some recent profits and gather positive momentum to regain its footing, after reaching our price target of $3120, amid the complete dominance of the upward trend, while the price trades alongside the secondary short-term trend line.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,115.67

• US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.
• The United States will release multiple employment-related figures this week.
• XAU/USD trades near fresh record highs, retracements likely to attract buyers.

Fears dominated financial markets at the weekly opening, resulting in XAU/USD reaching an all-time high of $3,128.14. A near-term pullback attracted buyers, and Gold retains most of its early gains in the mid-American session.

Demand for the bright metal is directly related to market fears. Concerns revolve around United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Market players are not only worried about the upcoming reciprocal tariffs announced for April 2, but also about fresh levies on Oil.

Trump offered an interview to NBC earlier in the day, and said he was “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after the latter criticized the credibility of their Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump added that if he believes Russia is responsible for not reaching a ceasefire with Ukraine, he may impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

Secondary tariffs had already been announced on Venezuela, with Trump saying that he would place additional levies on countries that bought oil and gas from the South American country. Speculative interest rushed away from high-yielding stocks, with global indexes falling under strong selling pressure amid concerns that tariffs will have a negative impact on worldwide economic growth.

Data-wise, the focus this week will be on US employment-related data. The country will release the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday and the ADP Employment Change survey on Wednesday. Finally on Friday, the country will release the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it’s up for a third consecutive session, and despite overbought readings, there are no technical signs of a directional change. The pair develops far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction and currently at around $2,991.20. In the meantime, technical indicators stand at extreme levels, partially losing their bullish strength, yet still heading north.

The 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD pair shows indicators retreating from their tops, but are still at extreme overbought readings. At the same time, all moving averages aim north, with the 20 SMA accelerating further north at around $3,065.90. Buyers are still taking their chances on dips, although a steeper corrective slide is not out of the picture, given the extreme overbought conditions in multiple time frames.

Support levels: 3,107.40 3,095.50 3,082.90

Resistance levels: 3,128.50 3,145.00 3,160.00