• EUR/JPY may encounter key resistance around the psychological level of 165.00, identified as “pullback resistance.”
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains above 50, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
• On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 161.93.

EUR/JPY holds little losses near 162.80 during Tuesday’s Asian session after two consecutive days of gains. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross trending within an ascending channel, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above 50, strengthening the bullish outlook for the EUR/JPY cross. The cross also holds above the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), highlighting strong short- and medium-term momentum and supporting the potential for further gains.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may face its first key resistance around the psychological level of 165.00, marked as “pullback resistance”, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 166.00. A decisive break above this critical zone could reinforce the bullish bias, potentially leading to a retest of the eight-month high at 166.69, last seen in October 2024.

The EUR/JPY cross may find initial support at the nine-day EMA of 161.93. A break below this level could weaken short-term momentum, pushing the currency cross toward the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 161.00, followed by the 50-day EMA at 160.43.

A deeper decline below this support zone could erode medium-term momentum, increasing downward pressure. This may drive the EUR/JPY cross toward its monthly low of 155.59, recorded on March 4, and potentially to 154.41, the lowest level seen since December 2023.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• The GBP/USD price analysis indicates caution ahead of the UK budget reading.

• Data revealed that the PMI of UK services increased from 51.0 to 53.2.

• Data indicated a jump in business activity in the US.

The GBP/USD price analysis indicates caution ahead of this week’s UK budget reading. However, the dollar remained on the front foot after upbeat US data and news of some tariff relief. On the other hand, an upbeat UK services PMI kept the pound from sliding considerably against the dollar. 

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Market participants are eagerly awaiting a budget update from Rachel Reeves. Moreover, experts believe she will signal lower spending given the recent poor performance in the UK economy. However, an upbeat business activity report on Monday revealed some bright spots in the economy that might relieve the Finance Minister.

Notably, data revealed that the services PMI increased from 51.0 to 53.2, beating estimates. The report kept the pound from falling against a broadly stronger dollar.

The greenback had a strong rally after data indicated a jump in business activity in the US. The composite PMI rose from 51.6 to 53.5. The upbeat report eased fears of a recession. At the same time, demand for the dollar rose after Trump said he would exempt some countries from the April tariffs. The news helped ease trade war fears, improving sentiment.

GBP/USD key events today

Traders are not looking forward to any high-impact data from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep absorbing recent releases and US tariff developments.

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears pause below SMA, next target at 1.2851

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. However, the price currently trades in a tight range. The bias recently shifted after the previous bullish trend halted near the 1.3000 key psychological level. 

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Since the uptrend broke above the 1.2851 resistance, the price started sticking close to the SMA, indicating weaker momentum. At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. After this divergence, bulls had little strength to challenge the 1.3000 key resistance level. 

As a result, bears returned to push the price below the SMA and the RSI below 50. Currently, they are targeting the 1.2851 support level. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish bias. Moreover, it would allow GBP/USD to reach the 1.2700 support.

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The USD/JPY pair kept rising in latest intraday trading, while boosted by moving within an ascending correctional price channel in the short term, as the price settles above 150.00, underpinning the positive scenario, with ongoing positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.