Even as copper prices try to hold their ground above the $5.00 barrier yesterday, a host of negative factors are emerging, as the Stochastic exited overbought levels, while $5.1700 is forming as an important barrier, thus curbing gains.

The price will likely engage in sidewaya trading, while a drop below $5.00 would activate the negative correctional path towards $4.8900, however, a resumption of gain requires a breach of $5.1700.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9000 and $5.1100.

Today’s price forecast: Correctional bearish

• Silver remains under some selling pressure for the third successive day on Friday.
• Acceptance below the 23.6% Sibo. level supports prospects for additional losses.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. 

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers for the third successive day on Friday and slides to the $33.00 neighborhood during the Asian session, back closer to a one-week low touched the previous day. 

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upswing from the late February low, around the $30.80 region. This supports prospects for deeper losses. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are still holding in positive territory. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find decent support near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $32.95-$32.90 zone. 

Bearish traders might wait for a sustained break below the said area before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from the $34.20-$34.25 region, or the highest level since October touched on Tuesday. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the 50% Fibo. level, around the $32.55-$32.50 zone, before eventually dropping to the $32.00 mark or the 61.8% Fibo. level. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the white metal has topped out in the near term.

On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $33.40 region, could act as an immediate hurdle. Some follow-through buying beyond the Asian session high, around the $33.55 area, has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the $34.00 mark en route to a multi-month peak, around the $34.20-$34.25 zone. This is followed by barriers near the $34.55 area and the $34.85 region, or a multi-year peak touched in October, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. 

Silver daily chart

US crude oil prices kept rising in intraday trading and successfully pierced the pivotal resistance of $68.00, boosted by trading above the 50-candle SMA, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, while the price moves alongside the trend line.

However, it’s important to note that the Stochastic has reached overbought levels, which could hinder upcoming gains and might force the price into a correction to gather positive momentum and vent off that overbought saturation.

• Gold price looks to extend the pullback from record highs of $3,058 early Friday.
• The US Dollar and Treasury yields rebound as the Fed seems in no rush to cut rates.
• Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade on the daily chart amid global jitters.

Gold price is looking to extend its previous retreat from all-time highs of $3,058 in Asian trading on Friday. Despite the pullback, Gold price remains on track to book the third consecutive weekly gain.   

Gold price eyes a pullback before the next leg up

Traders remain poised to cash in on their Gold long positions after the latest record rally heading into the week while bracing for next week’s US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

However, any retracement in Gold price is likely to be seen as a good buying opportunity as US President Donald Trump’s tariff-led economic concerns and persistent bets for two Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cuts this year will continue to act as a tailwind for the traditional store of value.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-policy meeting press conference on Wednesday that they are in no rush to cut rates, their projections of two rate reductions for the current year remain intact, giving Gold buyers enough reason to stay hopeful.

Furthermore, the Fed raised stagflation fears in its quarterly economic projections, mainly due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs, keeping the demand for Gold as an inflation-hedge alive.

Not to forget the lingering Middle East geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas. At least 91 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in airstrikes across Gaza on Thursday after Israel resumed bombing and ground operations, Reuters reported, citing Palestine’s health ministry.

That said, attention now turns to Fedspeak and President Trump’s Oval Address as traders anticipate reciprocal tariffs effective on April 2 amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine truce.

Speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams will be closely followed as they return from the ‘blackout’ period.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the Gold price retains its upside potential as the ascending triangle breakout remains in effect.

However, a brief pullback could be in the offing as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases but remains within the overbought region, near 70.50, at the time of writing.

Should the corrective decline gather steam, Gold price could test Wednesday’s low of $3,023, below which the $3,000 level will be targeted.

The next downside caps are at the weekly low of $2,982 and the $2,945 demand area, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support coincide.

Alternatively, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,056 if buyers regain poise. Further up, the triangle target measured at $3,080 will be put to the test.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,036.15

• The US Dollar surged amid risk aversion, extreme oversold conditions.
• The Bank of England kept the benchmark rate at 4.5%, as widely anticipated.
• XAU/USD could reach higher highs if the $3,020 area holds in the upcoming sessions.

Spot Gold retreated towards the $3,030 region after hitting yet another record high of $3,056.20 per troy ounce. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened during European trading hours as caution led ahead of American data and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision.

On the one hand, the United States (US) published weekly unemployment data, showing claims increased by 223K in the last week, slightly better than the 224K expected. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey resulted at 12.5 in March, better than the 8.5 anticipated yet below the previous 18.1. Finally, Existing Home Sales were up 4.2% in February after falling by 4.7% in January. The data was mostly encouraging, helping the USD retain most of its intraday gains.

As for the BoE, the United Kingdom (UK) central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate on hold, as widely anticipated. Officials voted 8-1, availing the decision slightly more hawkish than the 7-2 anticipated. Additionally, policymakers showed concerns about the latest uptick in headline inflation, which was no surprise.

Demand for the USD eased after Wall Street’s opening, as US indexes posted an impressive comeback following a pre-opening slump. Stocks’ strength weighs on the USD, yet also prevents Gold from running north.

Friday will be light in terms of macroeconomic data, with investors looking at politics for direction.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it trades in the red, yet also that it posted a higher high and a higher low, keeping the dominant bullish trend alive. In the mentioned time frame, however, technical indicators are giving signs of upward exhaustion, losing strength at extreme levels, suggesting an upcoming corrective slide. At the same time, the bright metal holds above all bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,941.70.

The 4-hour chart shows that the corrective decline may be complete as XAU/USD is bouncing from a firmly bullish 20 SMA, currently at $3,027.26, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher, far below the shorter one. At the same time, the Momentum indicator aims lower within positive levels but loses downward strength, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator corrected overbought conditions before stabilizing at around 61.

Support levels: 3,027.20 3,011.00 2,996.90  

Resistance levels: 3,056.30 3,070.00 3,085.00

Watching for Signs of Strength

If signs of strength seen today are sustained, then crude oil should show little difficulty in surpassing the next higher potential resistance zone around Tuesday’s high of $68.85. If the price exceeds that level, it may indicate a potential reversal and signal the beginning of an upward trend. This doesn’t mean the trend would keep rising but at a minimum there is the potential for the completion of a rising ABCD pattern at $69.87. Wednesday’s low (C) is a higher swing low relative to the bottom of the March decline at $65.41 (A).

Weekly Chart Confirms Bullishness

The larger time frame weekly chart confirms signs of strength. A bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern occurred last week with a high of $68.03. It was followed by a weekly breakout this week. Crude oil is on track to end the week in a bullish position near the highs of the weekly price range. This would position it for a bullish continuation.

If the initial $69.87 target is surpassed, there is a confluence zone around $70.61 to $70.81. That price zone starts with the 50% retracement of an internal decline along with the extended target from the ABCD pattern that is shown on the chart. Higher up is the 50-Day MA. It is currently at $71.96 and is falling.

Strong Weekly Breakout

Given the weekly reversal that will likely confirm this week with a weekly closing price above last week’s high, a couple weeks up wouldn’t be unusual, at a minimum. The weekly breakout looks clear and decisive so far. Therefore, what happens next will be telling. Does the advance stall and chop around before bullish momentum returns, or does next week start with a breakout to new weekly highs?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.