• Gold prices climb as US fiscal concerns over Trump’s proposed tax bill support bullion gains.
• Fed Chair Powell comments on monetary policy at the ECB Forum, maintaining a data-dependent stance.
• XAU/USD trades near $3,350 after US ISM and JOTS data beat estimates, raising expectations for a September rate cut.

Gold prices are rallying on Tuesday as traders digest remarks from policymakers currently gathered at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum in Portugal.

Focus has been on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has been facing increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump to reduce interest rates in July.

Despite Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments and better-than-expected US economic data, which have helped limit US Dollar losses, XAU/USD continues to trade around $3,350 at the time of writing.

Fed Powell’s comments included, “As long as the US economy is in solid shape, we think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be.”

So far, Powell has adhered to the cautious script, but investors are aware that this could shift quickly if the data dictates otherwise.

Additionally, Powell stated that “It’s going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting,” Powell said. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”

These comments suggest that the Fed is not rushing to cut rates, increasing the potential for a September cut. With the US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTs data beating expectations, a resilient US data remains supportive of a more data-dependent Fed, limiting US Dollar losses.

Global policymakers gather at the ECB forum, a key event for Gold

The focus on Tuesday was on the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, currently underway in Sintra, Portugal. This rare convergence of the world’s top central bankers offers a critical opportunity for markets to assess the direction of global monetary policy.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are currently speaking on monetary policy.

The joint appearance is more than symbolic. Previous Forums have triggered coordinated messaging or revealed stark divergences in policy outlooks that have moved major asset classes, including Gold, currencies, and bonds.

With central banks navigating a delicate balance between inflation control and slowing growth, any nuance in today’s remarks could set the tone for the third quarter. 

Gold daily digest market movers: XAU/USD rallies on monetary, fiscal, tariff concerns

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to print at 48.8 for June. The June data came in above expectations at 49, rising from 48.5 in May. 
• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), where economists had expected around 7.3 million open positions as of May 31. Instead, the latest report revealed that job vacancies rose by 7.769 million, reflecting a resilient US labour market.
• President Donald Trump’s escalating criticism of Powell, including another sharply worded post on Truth Social on Monday, has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence. 
• Trump’s post read, “Jerome – You are, as usual, ‘too late.’ You have cost the USA a fortune – and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!” 
• The rhetoric has fueled speculation that Powell may either shift his tone or face replacement. 
• That prospect has pressured real yields lower and driven fresh demand for Gold as a hedge against policy uncertainty and US Dollar weakness. 
• President Trump issued a handwritten note with his signature to Fed Powell on Monday. The letter said that “Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost! No inflation”. 
• Many now expect a shift toward looser monetary policy, which is putting downward pressure on real yields and making Gold more attractive.
• At the same time, the Trump administration’s proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” with its estimated $3.3 trillion impact on the deficit, is sparking fears over long-term fiscal health. 
• The bill has drawn fire from across the political spectrum, including from Elon Musk and several Democratic leaders, who warn it could lead to inflation and a weaker US Dollar. Such a backdrop often prompts investors to turn to Gold as a hedge against instability and currency depreciation. The Senate is currently pushing to have the bill approved by Friday.
• With a July 9 tariff deadline fast approaching, the US is focusing on smaller, step-by-step trade deals rather than sweeping agreements, aiming to avoid triggering new tariffs. 
• While partial progress has been made with countries like the UK and China, talks with Japan and the European Union are still unsettled. The EU has shown openness to a blanket 10% tariff but is pushing for exceptions in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 
• Meanwhile, President Trump has taken aim at Japan’s trade approach, especially on rice, warning that new tariffs may be imposed if no deal is reached in time.
• Trump expressed his frustration on Monday following a dispute over Japan’s reluctance to import rice from the US, which resulted in the US President stating that Japan has been “spoiled with respect to the United States of America.”
• All of this contributes to an environment where Gold looks relatively safe. Add to that the possibility of technical breakouts and increased buying interest, and it’s no surprise prices are pushing higher.

Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD bounces off trendline support, opening the potential for a retest of $3,400

After falling to trendline support from the January low on Monday, failure to gain traction below $3,250 allowed bulls to regain control of the imminent trend. With the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently providing support for the yellow metal at $3,320, XAU/USD is now threatening a break of the 20-day SMA at $3,351. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April low-high move provides an additional barrier of resistance near $3,371.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52, rising back above the neutral zone and pointing higher. This suggests a modest bullish bias. With the Gold price threatening the 20-day SMA, a clear break of $3,351 and a move above $3,371 could see prices retest the major psychological level of $3,400.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart

If bullish momentum fades and prices slip below $3,300, the 38.2% Fibo level could come into play at $3,292, with a deeper pullback driving Gold to the midpoint of the April move at $3,328.

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Natural gas price lost the positive momentum yesterday, affected by stochastic stability below 50 level, forcing it to form bearish waves to settle near the support base at $3.460 level, to form strong and important resistance to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The stability of the current support will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect its rally towards $3.600, then attempts to reach the extra initial target at $3.830, while the continuation of the negative pressures and its decline below the current support will confirm its move to the bearish track, which forces it to suffer several losses by targeting $3.320 and $3.140 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price holds recovery from monthly lows near $3,250 early Tuesday.
• US Dollar attempts a tepid bounce as markets look to reposition ahead of Powell’s Sintra appearance.
• Gold price tests key 50-day SMA barrier at $3,320 on the road to recovery, daily RSI stays bearish.

Gold price has paused its recovery from monthly lows early Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) finds fresh demand while the market mood turns cautious.

Gold price awaits Powell for fresh cues on Fed rate cuts

Traders seem to resort to position adjustments on their USD shorts, bracing for US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance for fresh cues on the timing of the next interest rate cut.

Fed Chair Powell participates in a policy panel alongside other key central banks’ chiefs at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on central banking in Sintra on Tuesday.

Markets continue to price in a 20% chance of the Fed trimming rates this month while predicting a 77% probability of a rate cut in September.

If Powell once again signals prospects of weaker-than-expected inflation, it would ramp up the Fed’s easing bets, triggering a fresh leg down in the US Dollar.

The dovish tone could help the non-yielding Gold price recover further ground.

However, if Powell surprises with some hawkish or prudent remarks, it could double down on the recent Gold price downtrend.

Besides, the focus will be also on the US JOLTS Job Openings data and US trade talks as the July 9 deadline approaches.

The Greenback faced a double-whammy on Monday and hit over three-year lows against its major currency rivals.

Increased concerns over US fiscal health ahead of the Senate’s efforts to pass President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill weighed heavily on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, investors remained wary over the potential US trade deals with Japan and the European Union (EU), especially after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs despite good-faith negotiations.

Furthermore, the record-rally on Wall Street indices also hit the sentiment around the Greenback, allowing Gold price to stage a decent comeback on Monday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price tests the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,320, having found support near the $3,250 psychological level on Monday.

On the road to recovery, Gold price recaptured the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297 on a daily closing basis.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the 50 level, raising doubts about the prospects of a sustained recovery from monthly troughs.

If Gold price settles Tuesday above the 50-day SMA at $3,320, the turnaround could gather strength toward the 21-day SMA at $3,350.

Further north, the 23.6% Fibo level of the same ascent at $3,377 will be challenged again.

On the flip side, acceptance below $3,297, the 38.2% Fibo level will open the door toward the monthly lows of $3,248.

Natural gas price lost the positive momentum yesterday, affected by stochastic stability below 50 level, forcing it to form bearish waves to settle near the support base at $3.460 level, to form strong and important resistance to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The stability of the current support will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect its rally towards $3.600, then attempts to reach the extra initial target at $3.830, while the continuation of the negative pressures and its decline below the current support will confirm its move to the bearish track, which forces it to suffer several losses by targeting $3.320 and $3.140 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Bullish