The EURJPY pair continued forming bearish correctional trading, to keep gathering the gains of the last bullish attack, hitting the 166.00 level, which represents the extra support level for the current trading.
Stochastic exit from the overbought level might force the price to renew the pressure on the current support, where breaking it will confirm its readiness to resume the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching 165.45 and 165.00, while activating the bullish track requires forming a strong bullish rally to settle above 167.35 level, then targeting new positive stations that begin at 168.00 and 168.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 165.45 and 166.85
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3400 on Thursday.
The BoE is expected to maintain its bank rate at 4.25% after June meeting.
The risk-averse market atmosphere could make it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound.
After closing the day virtually unchanged on Wednesday, GBP/USD edged lower and touched its weakest level in about a month near 1.3380 in the Asian session on Thursday. Although the pair managed to recover above 1.3400 by the European morning, it’s struggling to attract buyers ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy announcements.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.56%
1.05%
0.52%
0.91%
0.15%
0.56%
0.54%
EUR
-0.56%
0.38%
-0.05%
0.35%
-0.28%
-0.00%
-0.02%
GBP
-1.05%
-0.38%
-0.39%
-0.02%
-0.65%
-0.36%
-0.40%
JPY
-0.52%
0.05%
0.39%
0.38%
-0.68%
-0.32%
-0.40%
CAD
-0.91%
-0.35%
0.02%
-0.38%
-0.67%
-0.34%
-0.37%
AUD
-0.15%
0.28%
0.65%
0.68%
0.67%
0.29%
0.26%
NZD
-0.56%
0.00%
0.36%
0.32%
0.34%
-0.29%
-0.03%
CHF
-0.54%
0.02%
0.40%
0.40%
0.37%
-0.26%
0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The BoE is widely expected to maintain its bank rate at 4.25% following the 25 basis points (bps) cut announced in May. Because there will not be a press conference, the vote split and the language in the policy statement could drive Pound Sterling’s valuation in the near term.
In case the vote is unanimous for a policy hold, the immediate reaction could help Pound Sterling gather strength. On the flip side, GBP/USD could continue to stretch lower if more than two policymakers vote in favor of a rate cut.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its peers on Thursday and limits GBP/USD’s upside. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious tone and the risk-averse market atmosphere support the USD.
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% after the June meeting, as expected, and the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers still see a 50 bps reduction in the policy rate in 2025. On a hawkish revision, the document highlighted that officials now forecast only a 25 bps cut in 2026, against the 50 bps projected in March’s SEP.
In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there is unusually elevated uncertainty in the outlook and said that they expect goods inflation to rise further this summer, with tariffs working their way to the consumer. Powell also reiterated that they are well-positioned to wait before deciding on the next policy step.
Meanwhile, markets grow anxious as tensions in the Middle East remain high, with the possibility of the United States (US) directly getting involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. Bloomberg reported early Thursday that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran in coming days. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal claimed that US President Donald Trump has approved attack plans on Iran earlier this week but wanted to wait to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD remains below the lower limit of the ascending regression and channel and stays below the 200-period Simple Moving Average after closing the previous four 4-hour candles below that level, reflecting a bearish tilt in the near term.
On the downside, 1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the immediate support level before 1.3340 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.3300 (static level, round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3440-1.3450 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 1.3520 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
$3,310.48 Support and 50-Day SMA Now Key Battleground
Price action is pressing against $3,310.48, a key horizontal support that aligns closely with the 50-day simple moving average at $3,314.40. This zone is a confluence of trend and structure—break it, and gold could fall toward $3,280.00 or even $3,228.38. But if bulls hold the line, it would mark a successful higher low and could reset the push toward $3,435.06 and $3,451.53.
This technical tension mirrors the market’s uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. Traders are waiting for confirmation—either a breakdown confirming near-term weakness or a bounce that keeps the broader uptrend intact.
Fed’s “Prepared to Adjust” Line Adds Fuel to Medium-Term Bull Case
While short-term upside is capped by high real interest rates, the Fed’s increasingly data-dependent tone has opened the door to a more accommodative stance if needed. The line that the Committee is “prepared to adjust” policy if risks emerge is a subtle pivot—particularly if upcoming inflation or employment data weakens.
The Fed is also continuing quantitative tightening at a cautious pace, reducing Treasuries and MBS holdings without disrupting liquidity. This careful approach helps sustain financial conditions favorable to gold and other alternative assets.
Looking 6–18 months out, the case for gold remains strong. The Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and growth support creates a scenario where any economic weakening—whether from labor market stress, softer consumer demand, or credit risks—could fast-track rate cuts. In that case, gold could break back above $3,500.00 and enter a new leg higher.
Persistent geopolitical tensions, fiscal risks, and steady central bank demand for gold further reinforce the metal’s long-term appeal.
The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen in that same time frame, initially pulling back below the 145 yen level, but now it looks like we’re going to make a serious attempt at threatening the 146 yen level. This is an area where I think if we can clear somewhat cleanly, we could have a nice breakout. It would make a certain amount of sense. The Japanese are having issues with their bond market, as far as not finding enough buyers. So, the Bank of Japan’s probably going now to be somewhat loose with its monetary policy going forward.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar as it is now threatening the bottom of the overall channel that we have been following for several months now. With that being the case, the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA come into the picture as potential support as well. But really at this point, the Australian dollar just doesn’t seem to be able to pick up momentum.
It has been grinding higher for a while now, but it just can’t get above that crucial 0.6550 level. And until that’s the case, it’s a short-term back and forth type of range-bound market more than anything else. If we break down below the moving averages, then we could see a drop to the 0.6350 level.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Despite the EURNZD price stability within the bullish channel’s levels, facing difficulties in resuming the bullish attack, as it reached strong liquidity draw zones that are represented by 1.9225 level, which forces it to form an intraday negative rebound at 1.9015.
Despite forming some bullish waves this morning and reaching 1.9140 level, but its stability below 1.9225 confirms delaying the bullish attack, to expect its surrender to stochastic negativity and reaching 1.9020 followed by 1.8960, to form the waited correctional target in the near period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.9020 and 1.9185
The GBPJPY pair faced new negative pressure by stochastic reach below 50 level, which forces it to attack the support of the minor bullish channel’s support and suffer some losses by hitting 194.00 level, facing 50% Fibonacci correction level.
We expect the price to be affected by the instability and providing mixed trading, to keep waiting for confirming the main trend, depending on the next close, so the repeated stability above 194.40 will reinforce the bullish scenario to assist to breach the barrier at 195.70 reaching the next target at 196.60, while the stability below 194.00 will confirm the dominance of the bearish bias domination in the near trading, to expect suffering big losses by reaching 192.85.
The expected trading range for today is between 194.00 and 195.10
Copper price took advantage of the positive momentum that comes from stochastic approach from 80 level, forming bullish waves and attacking 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.
The positive factors specifically the stability of the extra support at $4.6600 will increase the chances for the trading’s rally near the target at $4.8900, reminding you that surpassing it will ease the mission of achieving extra gains that might extend to $5.0300.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7400 and $4.8900
The EURJPY pair continued forming bearish correctional trading, to keep gathering the gains of the last bullish attack, hitting the 166.00 level, which represents the extra support level for the current trading.
Stochastic exit from the overbought level might force the price to renew the pressure on the current support, where breaking it will confirm its readiness to resume the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching 165.45 and 165.00, while activating the bullish track requires forming a strong bullish rally to settle above 167.35 level, then targeting new positive stations that begin at 168.00 and 168.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 165.45 and 166.85
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Platinum price succeeded in extending the gains range by surpassing the barrier at $1275.00 yesterday, to notice recording big losses by hitting $1348.00 level, facing the achieved historical top.
Notet that providing positive momentum by stochastic by its rally to 80 level might assist reinforcing the chances for targeting new historical stations that might extend to $1368.00, noting that holding above $1275.00 is important for avoiding any losses that might be caused by changing the bullish trend.
The expected trading range for today is between $1300.00 and $1368.00
The GBP/USD forecast is bearish amid a hawkish Fed.
Geopolitical concerns continue to weigh on the pound.
Markets are now awaiting BoE policy decision and statement.
The GBP/USD forecast has turned slightly bearish after staying subdued for the third consecutive session. The pair is trading around 1.3415, at the time of writing.
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The British pound is struggling as the US dollar demand rises due to safe-haven flows stemming from Iran-Israel conflict. On the other hand, FOMC meeting surprised the markets with a hawkish tilt. Now, the market participants await Bank of England policy meeting and statement, due later today.
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair found a mild support after the UK CPI print came better than expected. However, the inflation is still ticking down. That’s why the pound could not capitalize on the move. The last week’s dismal GDP and employment data continue to add pressure on the Bank of England to retain the easing policy.
On the geopolitics front, the Iran-Israel war has entered the seventh day. According to Bloomberg report, the US officials are preparing to attack Iran in the coming days. Another report from Wall Street Journal also claimed that the US President had approved attacks on Iran on Tuesday but he wanted to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program.
Moreover, the Greenback found additional support from the Fed Chair Powell’s comments. He signaled that the inflation is still somehow above their targets and could rise again in near future due to Trump tariffs. Powell also supported currency policy program, leaving them well positioned. He reiterated that the Fed will hold rates and cuts will depend primarily on the inflation and labor data.
The FOMC kept the rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%, as widely anticipated. The central bank still expects a 50 bps cut by the end of 2025.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Sellers Pause at 1.3400
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD 4-hour chart shows a mild support around 1.3400. However, the previously broken support at 1.3418 now acts as a resistance. If the price holds around current resistance, it may fall towards the next support at 1.3340. The RSI is near the oversold area which indicates the pair may see some buying.
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However, the price staying below the 20-period SMA shows the bears are in control for now. The markets may consolidate around the current levels before finding any directional bias.
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