Platinum price neediness to the negative momentum led to form some of the bullish waves by its stability above $983.00, approaching from the resistance at $1005.00, note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will confirm delaying the negative attack, to increase the chances of the trading rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, which forms the dividing line between confirming the main trend in the upcoming trading.

Therefore, we expect the continuation of the price’s fluctuation within tight range, to keep waiting for its decline below $983.00, which allows it activate the negative attack and reach towards the negative stations near $966.00 and $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $983.00 and $1010.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

• Britain and the European Union struck “Brexit Reset” pact in an attempt to remove trade bottlenecks and inject fresh momentum into both economies.
• Traders appear to approve the deal, with both the euro and the pound near the top of the FX relative strength tables and Germany’s DAX rallying to record highs to start the week.
• GBP/USD is on the verge of breaking out from the well-defined bullish flag pattern.

Yesterday, Britain and the European Union struck “Brexit Reset” pact in an attempt to remove trade bottlenecks and inject fresh momentum into both economies. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed the deal at London’s Lancaster House, framing it as a pragmatic move to boost growth and stabilize markets amid global uncertainty.

Below, we summarize the most relevant aspects of the agreement for traders:

Trade Flows and Export Recovery

By scrapping many routine border checks on animal and plant products, the agreement aims to reverse the roughly 21% drop in UK exports to the EU since 2020. Reduced red tape for British food and drink may cut costs, shorten delivery times, and free up capital that had been tied up in compliance. London projects up to £9 billion in annual gains from faster customs clearance and aligned standards in food, emissions trading, and energy.

Fisheries and Market Sentiment

The politically charged extension of EU fishing access until mid-2038 smooths a potential flashpoint in UK–EU relations. While fishing contributes just 0.4% of GDP, settling the dispute removes a hurdle that might have unsettled markets already jittery about strained post-Brexit ties.

Security Fund as Defense Investment

In a bid to deepen financial cooperation, UK firms will now compete for loans from the EU’s new €150 billion “Security Action for Europe” defense fund. This access to cheap, long-term financing is designed to shore up defense procurement pipelines, support jobs in the aerospace and armaments sectors, and send a strong signal to investors about renewed transatlantic solidarity…at a time that the US, a traditional military powerhouse, appears to be pulling back from its military involvement in the continent.

Capital Markets and Financial Services

Although the deal stops short of rejoining the single market or customs union, it establishes “dynamic alignment” in several regulatory areas. Crucially, financial services firms can expect greater predictability when issuing permits or clearing transactions, potentially easing London’s post-Brexit bid to retain its role as Europe’s premier finance hub.

Mobility, Consumer Confidence and Travel

Reinstating access to EU e-gates for UK passport holders and launching a time-limited “youth experience” work scheme should bolster consumer spending on travel and education. Those measures, while modest, may further lift business confidence and household outlays in border regions.

In summary, the reset deal aims to shore up near-term GDP growth, stabilize investor sentiment, and lay the groundwork for deeper economic integration between the UK and EU without reopening the broader political debates of Brexit. Traders appear to be giving their approval to the deal, with both the and the pound near the top of the FX relative strength tables and Germany’s rallying to record highs to start the week.

British Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

Focusing on cable, is on the verge of breaking out from the well-defined bullish flag pattern we highlighted on Friday. The exchange rate remains above both its upward-trending 50-day EMA and rising trendline, signaling a healthy medium-term bullish trend as long as the pair remains above 1.3100 or so. If the breakout is maintained (or ideally extended) through yesterday’s close, it would set the stage for a rally to 3+ year highs into at least the mid-1.3400s.

While not infallible, the ongoing breakout in the 14-day RSI indicator serves as a clear leading/confirmatory signal of the bullish breakout in GBP/USD itself.

Original Post

May 19, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR Price Near 1.13 Zone

US Dollar Sellers Return with a Vengeance, EUR/USD Exchange Rate Jumps to 10-Day High After US Downgrade

US assets were subjected to strong selling on Monday. Equity futures declined around 1.0% while Treasuries lost ground and the dollar index hit 10-day lows.

In this environment; the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate surged to 1.1280.

According to ING; “1.1265 is the intra-day resistance EUR/USD needs to break to open the topside once again.” A break could lead to 1.1370.

Bank of America forecasts that EUR/USD will strengthen to 1.17 at the end of 2025.

According to Goldman Sachs; “Despite a somewhat brighter US outlook, we still expect the Dollar to weaken.”

The dollar has posted sharp losses following the move by ratings agency Moodys late on Friday to downgrade the US AAA credit rating.

The downgrade has come at a bad time for the dollar given the focus on US fiscal policy together with a debate over wider confidence in the currency.

According to Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos; “the key problem for the US is that both the bond and currency markets have been insufficiently pricing in fiscal risks in the first place.”

The bank also noted the current attempts by the US Republican Congress to approve a tax bill which would put further upward pressure on the budget deficit over the medium term.

Saravelos also considers that it will be very difficult to reverse these fiscal changes during the current Presidential term.

He added; “The combination of diminished appetite to buy US assets and the rigidity of a US fiscal process that locks in very high deficits is what is making the market very nervous.”

ING commented; “Expect a risk premium to stay in the dollar this week, with investors also on the lookout for any currency references in trade deals currently being negotiated with Asia. We’ve also got a G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors meeting taking place in Canada on Tuesday.

It added; “It seems very unlikely, but any changes to the FX reference in their Communique – driven by the US Treasury – would pose a big downside risk to the dollar.”

MUFG commented’ “The Moodys’ downgrade of the US sovereign rating serves as a reminder of the growing risk of foreign investors turning away to a greater degree from US Treasury securities.”

It added; “Episode of triple selling of US assets have been few and far between in recent years. Our analysis of these episodes (with 30yr yield at least 15bps higher) tend to point to further US dollar selling ahead.”

EU political developments will also be in focus with two key votes on Sunday.

Centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, is set to win Romania’s presidential election.

ING commented; “Not that it is normally a big driver of the euro exchange rate, but the outcome of the Romanian presidential election will be welcome news in Brussels as it prevents a further splintering of the bloc.”

The first round of the Polish Presidential election was potentially less comforting. Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski secured around 31.4% and radical-right historian Karol Nawrocki around 29.5%.

According to ING; “In Poland, the first round of the presidential election brought the expected candidates to the second round, but the gap between the candidates is significantly narrower than the polls suggested.”

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May 19, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rises Amid US Credit Rating Downgrade

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) began the week with strong momentum, surging to a two-week high after the US was stripped of its AAA credit rating by Moody’s.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering around $1.3385. Up roughly 0.8% from Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar faced fresh selling pressure after Moody’s became the third major credit ratings agency to downgrade the United States’ long-standing AAA status, following in the footsteps of S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023.

The agency revised the rating down to Aa1, citing mounting concerns over the country’s growing fiscal deficit and surging debt-servicing costs. Moody’s highlighted that unless meaningful fiscal reforms are enacted, the US’s debt trajectory will remain on an unsustainable path.

Investors reacted swiftly to the downgrade, fearing it may undermine confidence in US assets. The move is seen as a warning signal about the long-term credibility of US fiscal policy, especially at a time when borrowing costs remain historically high.

Threats of fresh US fiscal and monetary risks prompted investors to scale back long-USD positions, especially as global risk appetite showed signs of recovery.

In contrast, the Pound was underpinned by optimism surrounding progress in post-Brexit trade talks between the UK and EU.

Reports suggest the UK and EU are close to finalising a new agreement that would reduce checks on agricultural goods crossing the border, in exchange for extended access to UK waters for EU fishing vessels. The deal is expected to be unveiled at a summit in London on Monday.

Investors welcomed the development, interpreting it as a potential turning point in the UK-EU relationship. A reduction in trade frictions could provide much-needed support to UK exporters and help improve the UK’s economic prospects.

Looking ahead, a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill on Tuesday may shape near-term GBP movement. If Pill maintains a hawkish tone and pushes back against rate cut expectations, Sterling could build on its current gains.

At the same time, markets will be watching for further updates on UK-EU trade talks. Any confirmation of a breakthrough deal would likely extend support for the Pound.

As for the US Dollar, a lack of key economic data in the early part of the week leaves it vulnerable to sentiment-driven trade. Investors will be particularly attuned to political developments and further commentary on the credit rating downgrade.

Should concerns over US fiscal stability deepen or if additional cracks appear in investor confidence, USD could remain under pressure, potentially pushing GBP/USD higher in the days to come.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen. This might be more of a risk appetite trade here, but we are hanging around this crucial 145 yen level. If we can bounce from here, the 50 day EMA is your first major resistance barrier, and then we could go looking towards the 148 yen level. We are still in the middle of a bottoming pattern from what I can see, and this is generally a very messy affair, especially against the Japanese yen. Even if we do break down from here, I’m not really looking to short this pair. I don’t want to pay the interest rate differential at the end of every night. And quite frankly, I suspect this is a short term pullback at best.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied against the dollar basically for the same reasons that the euro has, I suspect. We are sitting right here in the same consolidation. So really not that much has changed. Although as things stand heading into New York trading, it’s a reasonably strong candlestick, but it’s not as strong as one of them that we had last week, for example. So again, I don’t know that anything’s changed quite yet. We’ll have to see. But if we can break above the 0.65 level, then you have to start looking at the Australian dollar as something worth buying.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.