In a shocking move that has defused a brutal trade war and boosted international markets, the United States and China decided on May 12, to significantly reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for the first 90 days.

This naturally sparked a continued downward spiral in gold and prices touched $3121 for XAUUSD. 

This week, gold is looking to retrace and take out the late sellers in the market. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast of May 19th to May 23rd, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast we gave the selling level of gold in 1h, from where gold dumped 1420 points. 

We also shared a major buying level of gold in the weekly FVG, from which gold is up 827 points, at the time of writing.

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Not many significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, but it is still expected to impact XAUUSD. 

May 22nd, Thursday: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and Flash Services PMI

Two early measures of economic health are the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI.  They have the following effects on the gold vs. US dollar (XAU/USD) pair:

• Strong PMIs (Manufacturing + Services): Show economic expansion, which boosts the US currency and usually results in lower gold prices (a decline in XAU/USD).

• Weak PMIs: Indicate a slowdown in the economy, which devalues the US dollar and raises the price of gold (XAU/USD).

In summary, while negative PMI data can push gold prices higher, positive data tends to push them lower.

Gold HTF Overview

Gold has already tested its weekly FVG and closed above it, which is a bullish sign for gold. The next targets according to the weekly timeframe can be $3260 and $3328.86 which signify the untested lows and highs of the previous weekly candles.

Gold Forecast for May 19th to May 23rd

Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold. 

On the 1 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the bullish order block of $3129.85-3152.56.

On the 4h timeframe the buying opportunity is much lower around $3098-$3038. This is also the the last daily FVG of this entire bullish rally for which the low is $2956 which can be your invalidation point for buys and flipping towards sells on retracement, but that is far away for now.

In the 4 hour timeframe selling can be expected from the $3284-3325 levels, due to FVG, and structure area of the 4h timeframe.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

Below, we’ll take a look at support and resistance levels for XAUUSD this week.

Support Levels 

• $3098-$3038  – 4h support, daily FVG 
• $3129.85-3152.56 – 1h bullish order block

Resistance Levels 

• $3284-3325 levels – 4h FVG and structure level

To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for sells in the lower time frame levels and look for buying in the higher time frame levels. You can mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.

• The natural gas market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, as we have seen the 200 Day EMA offering support, but by the end of the day, we started to see a lot of negativity in the market then looks as if it is testing this 200 Day EMA as well.
• Because of this, we are sitting on significant technical support, but quite frankly I think it’s only a matter of time before we break down.

Keep in mind that the season for natural gas is typically more of a winter season, until you get to the very hottest parts of summer. This is because it is an American base contract more than anything else, and Americans tend to use natural gas to heat their homes, as well as produce extra electricity in order to run air conditioning.

While natural gas of course is important in other parts of the world, the Henry Hub contract is what most people trade, and therefore you have to be aware of what’s going on in America more than anything else.

As of late, we have seen the Europeans buying a lot of liquefied natural gas, which of course has a major influence on what we are seeing here. If we break down below the 200 Day EMA, the market is likely to go looking to the $3.00 level, which obviously has a certain amount of psychology attached to it as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Anything below there would be extraordinarily negative and could send the market down to the $2.40 level before it is all said and done.

Short-term rallies are likely, but those should end up being selling opportunities, as natural gas is going to be less in demand for the next couple of months, so I have no interest in buying this market, unless of course there is some type of external factor that drives up the price such as war, or some type of major disruption in supply for some other reason. I remain bearish, and probably will for a few months.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• Gold price remains stuck in a familiar band early Monday as the new week kicks off.
• The US Dollar sold into US fiscal concerns and trade uncertainty ahead of Fedspeak.  
• The daily RSI stays bearish but Gold buyers refuse to give up while the 50-day SMA holds.

Gold price is showing some fresh signs of life early Monday, following a weekly decline. The further upside in Gold price depends on the upcoming Fedspeak and talks over potential US trade deals amid rising concerns over US fiscal debt.  

Gold price remains exposed to two-way risks

Markets have resorted to selling US assets as they respond to the credit blow, marking the start of a new week.  Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating on Friday by one notch from its pristine “Aaa” rating to “Aa1”.

The rating downgrade is based on concerns about the nation’s growing $36 trillion debt pile and higher interest payments amid US President Donald Trump’s erratic economic and trade policies.

The US Dollar (USD) wilted alongside the Treasury bonds and US equity futures, reviving the safe-haven appeal of Gold price. However, rising US Treasury bond yields on economic concerns limit the upside attempts in the yellow metal, leaving the bullion confined in a range above $3,200.

Further, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s tariff threat on Sunday also keeps markets on the edge, allowing Gold price some sigh of relief. Bessent said, “Trump has put them (trading partners) on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level.”

These factors have unnerved markets, and hence, they pay little heed to the news that the House panel approved President Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, paving the way for possible passage in the House of Representatives later this week.

In the day ahead, Gold price could likely remain supported as the USD could face headwinds from growing economic and fiscal concerns. Data released last week showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in April fell unexpectedly, while Retail Sales growth slowed, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected.

However, any optimistic headlines on the expected US trade agreements with South Korea, India and Japan could refuel the Gold price downside. Cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will likely hinder the rebound in the bright metal.  

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains exposed to further downside risks as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits beneath the midline, near 48.50.

The bright metal remains capped between the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,299 and the 50-day SMA at $3,169.

So long as the price stays above the throwback support of the 50-day SMA, a brief recovery toward the 21-day SMA remains in the offing.

Acceptance above that level will add legs to the upswing, exposing the falling trendline resistance at $3,407.

On the downside, if sellers manage to crack the 50-day SMA on a sustained basis, a fresh sell-off could be fuelled toward the $3,100 mark.

The April 10 low of $3,072 would then come to the rescue of buyers.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negative pressures, which forces it to fluctuate below the extra support at 193.15 level, which forces it to delay the bullish rally on the current trading, while the stability of the moving average 55 above the support at 191.50, stochastic approach from 20 level, these factors make us wait for gathering the positive momentum, then begin targeting some of the positive stations, by its rally to 194.50 and 195.30.

While the decline below 191.50 and providing a negative close will confirm its move to the bearish track, to expect suffering big losses by reaching 190.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 192.20 and 194.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price began forming a negative move, activating with the negativity of the main indicators, to settle near the extra support at $4.5000, facing negative pressures will increase the chances for breaking the current support, to open the way towards targeting extra negative stations, which might begin at $4.4500 reaching $4.3100.

The failure to break the current support might push the price to form mixed trading, and there is a new chance for targeting 50%Fibonacci correction level near $4.6600.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.5600

Trend forecast: Bearish