The EURJPY pair is affected by the negative pressures, due to its repeated stability below the resistance at 164.90, forming several bearish waves, approaching from the initial support at 163.35 level.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, to expect activating the bullish track, which might target 164.20 and 164.90 level gradually, while breaking the support and holding below it will increase the chances for resuming the decline, and 162.40 level represents the next target of the bearish track.

The expected trading range for today is between 163.30 and 164.90

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price confirmed the continuation of the bearish scenario by providing a new negative close yesterday below $4.6600, which represents an extra barrier to its stability near 50% Fibonacci correction level.

Note that gathering the negative momentum in the current period is important to ease the mission of pressing on the barrier at $4.5000 level, and breaking it will open the way towards targeting negative stations, which might extend to $4.4500 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.6600

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price remains vulnerable near monthly lows below $3,200 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar snaps the overnight rebound ahead of key US data and Powell’s speech.
• Will Gold price defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155 as RSI stays bearish?

Gold price is looking to extend the previous day’s over 2% sell-off early Thursday. The yellow metal remains vulnerable near monthly lows, trading below $3,200, as it awaits the high-impact US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.  

Gold price at the mercy of US data and geopolitics

A negative shift in risk sentiment in Asian trades on Thursday seems to be exerting renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), helping Gold price pause its decline at the moment.

Traders are turning cautious and refraining from placing directional bets on the Greenback and Gold price before the release of the US PPI inflation and Retail Sales data, which could significantly impact the markets’ expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Retail volumes could see a big boost from frontloading to get ahead of US tariffs impact, while the US PPI inflation is set to decline to 2.5% over the year in April. Markets are pricing in about 53 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cut this year, with a probability of a 25 bps rate reduction in September standing at about 50%, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.

The increased odds of fewer Fed rate cuts continue to act as a headwind to the non-yielding Gold price, even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled slightly in April. Annually, US CPI rose 2.3% in the same period, compared to a forecast of 2.4%.

Gold price also bears the brunt of receding US recession fears, courtesy of the trade truce between the world’s two largest economies – the US and China. Furthermore, optimism over US-South Korea trade talks and expectations of a US-Iran nuclear deal keep the traditional safe-haven Gold price under pressure.

However, it remains to be seen if the Gold price continues its descent, as risk sentiment could deteriorate further if the upcoming Ukraine-Russia peace talks turn sour. Weaker-than-expected US PPI and Retail Sales data could rekindle dovish Fed expectations and provide the much-needed support to Gold price.

Additionally, Gold price could draw support from rising tensions over the US deficit after Treasury reported a $1.049 trillion budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal 2025, which started October 1, up 23%, or $194 billion, from a year earlier. 

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains exposed to further downside risks so long as the price stays below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,308.

Currently, the yellow metal is challenging the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,155.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding below the midline, near 44, indicating more downside potential.

However, if buyers manage to defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $3,308 cannot be ruled out.  

Further up, the falling trendline resistance at $3,419 will come into play.  

A sustained break below the 50-day SMA support could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the 100-day SMA at $2,972

Ahead of that, the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072 would be tested.

• Gold price recovers some lost ground to around $3,180 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Easing tensions in the global trade war undermines the Gold price. 
• US April Retail Sales and PPI reports will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,180 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the yellow metal might be capped in the near term due to better risk appetite and progress in trade talks. 

The precious metal remains on the defensive as tension eases in the global trade war, pushing investors away from safe-haven demand. The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%.

“Overall it’s an improved risk sentiment that for now has reduced gold’s appeal,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

A top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, said late Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with US President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. These positive developments contribute to the Gold’s downside. 

However, trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks could help limit the Gold’s losses. Traders will keep an eye on the release of the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for April later on Thursday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak. 

• XAG/USD pressured by higher US Treasury yields and growing belief Fed will hold rates steady.
• Price consolidates between $32.00 support and $32.73 resistance; momentum favors bears with RSI tilting lower.
• Break below 100-day SMA at $31.91 opens path to $31.30 and $31.00; upside capped by $33.00 and $33.68.

Silver price fell 2% on Wednesday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields as investors seemed confident that the US Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $32.20, unchanged as the Asian session begins.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price is set to consolidate within the $32.00 – $33.00 range, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.73 and on the downside by the 100-day SMA at $31.91.

From a momentum standpoint, sellers are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays. However, price action dictates that bears must clear the $32.00 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA to aim for lower prices. In that outcome, XAG/USD’s next support would be the 200-day SMA at $31.30. A breach of the latter will expose the $31.00 figure, followed by the latest cycle low seen at $28.33, the April 7 low.

Conversely, if XAG/USD clears the 50-day SMA, the grey metal would be poised to test $33.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the April 24 swing high at $33.68 ahead of the $34.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

XAU/USD Current price: $3,187.31

• Risk appetite eased, but investors keep dropping safe-haven assets.
• Thursday will bring some interesting macroeconomic figures from major economies.
• XAU/USD trades at fresh one-month lows, aiming to extend its near-term slide.

Gold prices are down on Wednesday with the bright metal trading at its lowest since mid-April. The XAU/USD pair accelerated its slide during American trading hours, piercing the $3,200 mark, as investors keep moving away from safe-haven assets. Despite risk appetite receding on Wednesday, investors are less concerned about global growth and a potential United States (US) recession, given the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China.

Meanwhile, speculative interest kept digesting US inflation data. The slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April reminded investors of the “hawkish” Federal Reserve’s stance. As a result, Wall Street trades mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 posting modest intraday advances and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down for a second consecutive day.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar remained scarce, but Thursday will bring Australian monthly employment figures, an update on the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product, and the US April Producer Price Index (PPI).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it fell further below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg lower. The 100 and 200 SMAS keep advancing, yet are too far below the current level to be relevant.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The pair trades below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA about to cross below the 200 SMA. The latter stands at $3,232, providing relevant resistance in the case of a recovery. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength but hold within negative levels, reflecting the absence of buying interest.

Support levels: 3,173.80 3,158.40 3,142.65

Resistance levels: 3,198.20 3,215.80 3,232.10