Buy the EUR/USD from the support level of 1.0970, target 1.1150, and stop 1.0880.
Sell the EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1220, target 1.1000, and stop 1.1330.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Ahead of the important US inflation figures announcement today, the EUR/USD currency pair is facing selling pressures that pushed it towards the 1.1065 support level, the lowest for the pair in a month, before stabilizing around the 1.1086 level at the start of trading today, Tuesday. Across licensed trading company platforms, selling pressure on EUR/USD increased amidst easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Recently, the United States and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days following talks in Geneva, representing a significant de-escalation in the trade war that erupted last month.
Under the US/China agreement, US tariffs on Chinese goods will decrease from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will decrease from 125% to 10%. In other geopolitical developments, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced his readiness to meet Russian President Putin in Turkey next Thursday, while the fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan continued.
Overall, according to Forex market trading, this news revived risk appetite, but this time it favoured the US dollar over the Euro, as traders prepared to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. Analysts anticipate that Federal Reserve officials will adjust their interest rate forecasts in light of receding inflation risks following the easing of trade tensions.
Trading Tips:
Be cautious. Increasing market optimism about resolving the global trade dispute will increase the US dollar’s gains and put the Euro under stronger downward pressure.
Regarding the monetary policy of global central banks, money markets now price the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate at 1.75% by the end of the year – returning to levels last seen in mid-April, before the ECB hinted at a possible interest rate cut to counter the potential economic repercussions of US tariffs. As of April 25, 2025, financial markets were expecting an interest rate below 1.55%, rising to 1.67% by late Friday.
Expected EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:
The most prominent bearish scenario for EUR/USD in Forex market trading is that bear control over the Euro/Dollar direction will strengthen by moving towards and below the psychological support level of 1.1000. Adding to the strength of the downward shift is the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving strongly below the midline, with room and time to move towards stronger bearish levels before reaching the oversold zone. Following a similar path, but lagging, the MACD indicator lines are closer to the midline, increasing the chances of the current bearish shift for the EUR/USD pair.
According to the performance on the daily chart, the move of EUR/USD towards the 1.10 support will support a move towards the next stronger support levels of 1.0945 and 1.0880, respectively.
The expected bullish scenario for EUR/USD will not have an opportunity without the bulls returning the currency pair towards the resistance levels of 1.1285 and 1.1370 again; otherwise, the bearish shift for EUR/USD will remain stronger. The recent selling of EUR/USD will be influenced today by the announcement of the German ZEW Sentiment Index reading at 12:00 PM Egypt time, amidst expectations of a strong improvement in the index readings. Later the same day, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading will be announced at 3:30 PM Egypt time, keeping in mind that the CPI results will affect market expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.
An upbeat market mood weighs on the US Dollar, providing near-term support to XAU/USD.
The United States Consumer Price Index rose by less than anticipated in April.
XAU/USD shows a limited bullish potential in the near term, support at $3,225.
Spot Gold consolidates losses on Tuesday, holding above the $3,200 mark yet unable to recover the ground lost on Monday. Financial markets retain the positive mood triggered by news of de-escalating trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, as both countries agreed to reduced tariffs on each other for 90 days.
Other than that, the US released the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose by 2.3% compared to a year earlier, easing from the previous 2.4%. The core annual reading, in the meantime, remained unchanged at 2.8%. Finally, the monthly CPI was up 0.2%, above the previous -0.1% but below the 0.3% anticipated by market players.
The upbeat mood weighed on the Greenback, leading to a modest XAU/USD advance. Meanwhile, Wall Street trades mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down roughly 0.40%, still positive for the week after adding over 1,000 points on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 post intraday gains, with the latter turning positive for the year.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
XAU/USD hovers around $3,250, and the daily chart shows a limited upward potential. The pair keeps developing below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic resistance at around $3,316.70. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, suggesting bulls have not yet given up. Finally, technical indicators stand in neutral territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidating at around 50, failing to provide clear directional clues.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, a mildly bullish 200 SMA at around $3.225.40 provides support for a second consecutive day, yet at the same time, the 20 SMA accelerated south above the current level and after crossing below a flat 100 SMA, in line with increased selling interest. Technical indicators, in the meantime, consolidate within negative levels, also supporting a bearish extension, particularly if the pair finally breaks below the mentioned 200 SMA.
During the trading session on Monday, we have seen the British pound gap higher against the Japanese yen as there was a significant “risk on move” out there, due to the announcement that the United States and China are looking into cutting tariffs drastically and then giving themselves 90 days in which to come together with some type of agreement.
This is obviously a very crucial thing for markets overall, because it can give you an idea that the risk appetite will either be better or worse.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis is worth paying close attention to, because the ¥195 level is an area that began significant resistance. If we can break above the ¥196 then it opens up the possibility of the move to the ¥200 level that could very well happen. I also recognize that the gap below is going to be paid close attention to, as it typically will offer support after a move like that. The ¥193.40 level is an area that you will have to pay close attention to because of this. The 200 Day EMA sits just above the ¥192 level, which in and of itself will be crucial as well.
Risk appetite is a huge influence on how this market moves, and therefore if we see stock markets and other risk assets rally, then we could see the British pound take off against the Japanese yen which of course is a major “safety currency” for a lot of forex traders.
With this being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where we are a little extended, but if we truly take off to the upside when it comes to risk appetite due to the US/China talks, that could very well be a major boost for this pair as well, not to mention the fact that you get paid at the end of every session to hold onto it.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Goldman Sachs sees upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast in 2025 and 2026 from recent trade de-escalation, it said in a note on Tuesday.
The bank estimates around $3-4 per barrel of upside risk to its Brent and WTI oil price forecast of $60/bbl and $56/bbl respectively for the rest of 2025, and $56/bbl and $52/bbl respectively in 2026.
The United States and China said on Monday that they would pause their tariffs for 90 days. Following the talks in Geneva over the weekend, the United States said it will cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% while China said it would cut duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%.
Goldman said that reduced recession risk has also reduced the probability of very low oil prices, although solid supply growth outside U.S. shale may still push prices significantly lower.
Oil prices fell to a four-year low last month on investor worries that the U.S.-China trade war could depress economic growth and oil demand.
The bank said that while it sees some upside risk to its oil price forecasts, it still expects a significant hit from tariffs to U.S. real income, global GDP, and global oil demand.
Brent crude BRN1! futures were trading at $66.77/bbl by 1443 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CL1! was at $63.85/bbl.
GBP/EUR advanced to a five-week best exchange rate near 1.19. While ING sees potential further Pound Sterling gains ahead of the UK-EU summit, Nordea forecasts a gradual decline against the Euro to 1.15 by late 2025 amid weakening UK employment and cautious BoE signals.
Strong UK retail sales data and buoyant risk appetite continued to underpin the Pound on Tuesday and offset further evidence of a weaker labour market.
The Euro remained on the ropes amid a retreat in defensive support. In this environment, the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate hit a fresh 5-week high at 1.1900 before a retreat to 1.1890 and will look to break this resistance area in the short term.
ING does see scope for further Pound gains ahead of the May 19th UK-EU summit; “Expect sterling to stay bid ahead of that – potentially even seeing EUR/GBP break below 0.84.” (GBP/EUR Above 1.19.)
Nordea, however, expects that GBP/EUR will fade gradually and weaken to 1.15 by the end of 2025.
There was a stronger than expected reading for retail sales with the BRC data reporting an annual 6.8% increase in like-for-like retail sales for April from 0.9% previously with sales boosted by favourable weather and a late Easter.
UK unemployment increased to 4.5% in the 3-months to March from 4.4% previously and the highest reading since the third quarter of 2021.
April Payrolls declined a provisional 33,000 for April following a 47,000 decline for March and vacancies have been declining for close to three years.
Headline wages growth slowed to 5.5% in the year to March from a revised 5.7% previously, but above expectations of 5.2%.
Markets are not expecting another rate cut at the June meeting.
According to MUFG; “Wage growth remains too high and is not consistent with the BoE’s 2.0% inflation target.”
PwC economist Paige Tao focussed on clear evidence of a slowdown; “If last month’s labour market data hinted at an early response to upcoming employer tax rises, this month’s figures confirm a clearer weakening.”
She added; “As the Bank of England continues to balance inflation risks with growing weakness in the UK growth outlook, today’s figures may indicate a green light for another rate cut at next month’s MPC meeting.”
Wages and inflation implications will remain a key element for the Bank of England.
In comments on Monday MPC member Lombardelli stated that her vote for a cut at the May meeting was finely balance and was justified as an insurance against economic slowdown due to global trade wars.
In contrast, MPC member Taylor stated that the neutral level of interest rates is 2.75-3.00% with rates, therefore still a long way above this level.
According to Taylor, erosion of business confidence has continued and that there is a sense of caution and concern. The remarks were clearly on the dovish side.
MUFG summarised; “Overall the labour market data looks consistent to us with the BoE easing policy but in a careful and gradual manner.”
The German ZEW investor confidence index surged to 25.2 for May from -14.0 previously and above consensus forecasts of -3.5.
The current conditions index, however, edged lower to -82.0 from -81.2 previously which indicated further short-term stagnation.
Danske Bank commented; “Expectations will likely rebound partly due to the less negative signals on trade barriers from the Trump administration like we saw in the Sentix indicator. Focus will thus centre on whether the current situation has deteriorated due to the tariff uncertainty.”
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The rebound was fueled by a successful retest of a retracement zone between $3228.38 and $3164.23. Buyers also defended the May 1 swing bottom at $3201.95, temporarily halting the bearish momentum. However, the upside appears limited without a move through resistance between $3318.50 and $3351.08, where sellers are likely to re-emerge.
A break below $3201.95 would shift the main trend to down on the daily swing chart and target the next major level at $3145.00—the 50-day moving average. This moving average could act as both a technical magnet and a key sentiment indicator for the rest of the year.
Tariff Truce Sparks Risk-On Trade, Pressures Gold
Gold’s sharp decline on Monday followed the announcement of a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce. The U.S. agreed to reduce import duties from 145% to 30%, while China cut tariffs from 125% to 10%. The agreement eased trade tensions and fueled a rally in global equities, while the U.S. dollar surged to a one-month high—both factors that undercut gold’s appeal.
CPI Report Could Shift Fed Expectations, Influence Gold Price Future
Traders are now focused on the April U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which could shape expectations for Fed policy. Barclays projects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month (2.3% year-over-year), with core CPI up 0.2% (2.8% year-over-year). Although tariffs were implemented in early April, economists expect little immediate impact on prices due to exemptions and advanced shipments that likely front-loaded inflationary pressure into Q1.
A softer-than-expected CPI print could take pressure off the Fed and weaken the dollar, offering short-term support for gold. However, any upside surprise would likely reinforce expectations for tighter policy, boosting yields and dragging on gold.
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate gained ground on Tuesday as the US released its latest inflation reading.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3245, up roughly 0.5% from the start of Tuesday’s session.
The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday following the publication of a softer-than-expected US inflation print.
April’s consumer price index (CPI) showed headline inflation easing to 2.3%, down from 2.4%, marking the lowest rate in more than four years and falling short of forecasts for a steady reading.
The unexpected decline prompted traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, dragging the ‘Greenback’ lower.
Adding to the downside, a generally upbeat market mood saw investors shy away from the safe-haven currency, intensifying the USD’s losses.
The Pound (GBP) faced early pressure on Tuesday after disappointing UK labour market figures dented investor confidence.
According to the latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) report, unemployment climbed to 4.5% in March, reaching its highest level since summer 2021, while wage growth (excluding bonuses) cooled more than anticipated, slipping from 5.9% to 5.6%.
The figures fell short of forecasts and raised fresh concerns about the strength of the UK jobs market.
Despite the initial downturn, Sterling found firmer footing later in the session, particularly against safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar.
A risk-on mood helped offset earlier losses, with the Pound’s sensitivity to risk sentiment offering it modest support into the afternoon.
In the absence of fresh economic data from either side of the Atlantic, the spotlight is now on central bank commentary to drive movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.
Following the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish commentary at its most recent policy meeting, further optimistic signals could offer the Pound additional support during Wednesday’s European session.
For the US Dollar, if the Federal Reserve responds to Tuesday’s cooler-than-forecast inflation figures with dovish signals, the US Dollar may come under renewed pressure as the week unfolds.
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The (USDJPY) price declined in its recent intraday trading, affected by the stability of the current resistance level at 148.13, gathering the gains of its last rises, attempting to gain positive momentum that might assist it to keep the solid bullish correctional wave, besides its attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signal from it.
The domination of the bullish correctional trend supports the price, accompanied by its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the resistance at 148.13, to target the next resistance at 150.00.
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The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Monday as we kick off the week on a risk on type of note.
That being said, a lot of this is going to be based on the idea of swap being paid at the end of every day and then, we get some type of tariff relief coming from the United States and China.
That makes people think about risk on behavior and therefore you start to see the Japanese yen fall.
Furthermore, it’s worth noting that the United States is definitely seeing inflows during the trading session on Monday, not only in the currency markets, but also the stock market.
Short Term Pullbacks
So, with that being said, I think we’ve got a situation where short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities like I’ve been saying for some time. I think the 140 yen level is going to end up being a massive floor in the market but do keep in the mind that if we get a lot of concern in the market again, we could see the Japanese yen strengthen.
Short-term pullbacks offer those buying opportunities I’ve been talking about, especially near the 50 day EMA. The 200 day EMA sits just below the 150 yen level, which has a lot of psychology attached to it.
So, if we can break above there, that’s a very bullish sign. But right now, I think we’ve got a situation where we’ve definitely started to see some short covering. We definitely are starting to see a certain amount of momentum. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to find value hundreds, especially considering, like I said, you get paid at the end of every day.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Crude oil futures tumbled over the past week, falling more than 6% as concerns over weakening global demand and a resurgent supply outlook weighed on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly hit a low of $56.39 before recovering to $59.24 by Thursday’s close. While dip-buying provided short-term support, the underlying market tone remains distinctly bearish as fundamental pressures intensify.
China Demand Slowdown Fuels Bearish Sentiment
Fresh economic data from China delivered a major blow to oil bulls. The country’s official manufacturing PMI slumped to 49.0 in April, signaling contraction and raising alarm over the health of the world’s largest crude importer. Of particular concern was the new export orders index, which plunged to its weakest level since 2012 outside of pandemic anomalies. Analysts responded by slashing full-year growth forecasts to just 3.5%, casting doubt on sustainable Chinese demand.
Though China’s March crude imports surged, analysts argue this was driven more by pre-sanctions stockpiling than any uptick in consumption. With Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures struggling to gain traction, traders are increasingly skeptical of China’s ability to sustain meaningful crude demand growth in the near term.
Trade War Escalation Undermines Global Oil Demand Expectations
U.S.-China trade tensions are exacerbating the fragile demand picture. A fresh round of tariffs and retaliatory measures has heightened fears of a global…
Crude oil futures tumbled over the past week, falling more than 6% as concerns over weakening global demand and a resurgent supply outlook weighed on sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly hit a low of $56.39 before recovering to $59.24 by Thursday’s close. While dip-buying provided short-term support, the underlying market tone remains distinctly bearish as fundamental pressures intensify.
China Demand Slowdown Fuels Bearish Sentiment
Fresh economic data from China delivered a major blow to oil bulls. The country’s official manufacturing PMI slumped to 49.0 in April, signaling contraction and raising alarm over the health of the world’s largest crude importer. Of particular concern was the new export orders index, which plunged to its weakest level since 2012 outside of pandemic anomalies. Analysts responded by slashing full-year growth forecasts to just 3.5%, casting doubt on sustainable Chinese demand.
Though China’s March crude imports surged, analysts argue this was driven more by pre-sanctions stockpiling than any uptick in consumption. With Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures struggling to gain traction, traders are increasingly skeptical of China’s ability to sustain meaningful crude demand growth in the near term.
Trade War Escalation Undermines Global Oil Demand Expectations
U.S.-China trade tensions are exacerbating the fragile demand picture. A fresh round of tariffs and retaliatory measures has heightened fears of a global slowdown, with the U.S. economy already contracting in Q1—the first quarterly drop in three years. Analysts warn that President Trump’s tariff strategy is significantly disrupting global trade flows and could push the global economy toward recession, directly pressuring oil consumption.
Barclays and other banks have already downgraded oil demand projections, with Brent forecasts reduced by $4 to $70 per barrel. As confidence in a robust economic recovery falters, so too does support for higher oil prices.
EIA Reports Mixed Inventory Data as Supply Stays Ample
On the supply front, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data painted a mixed but largely bearish picture. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels last week—defying analyst expectations for a build of 429,000 barrels. However, inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose by 682,000 barrels, and distillate stockpiles increased by 900,000 barrels, against forecasts for a draw.
Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected—falling 4 million barrels—but refinery activity continued to ramp up, with crude runs rising by 189,000 bpd and utilization climbing to 88.6%. Net U.S. crude imports also fell sharply by 663,000 bpd, pointing to a refined product market that is still structurally oversupplied despite headline crude draws.
OPEC+ Output Plans Keep Pressure on Prices
The broader supply outlook continues to tilt bearish. Several OPEC+ producers are reportedly pressing for accelerated output increases in June, as frustration mounts over internal quota breaches by members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leader, has signaled it can tolerate prolonged low prices and is unwilling to cut production further—signaling a strategic pivot toward defending market share over price.
Russia, while less aggressive, is unlikely to block moderate increases. With OPEC+ still holding back over 5 million bpd and internal cohesion fraying, traders are bracing for a more aggressive unwind of production cuts that could flood an already soft market with excess barrels.
Geopolitical Risks Offer Only Temporary Relief
Heightened geopolitical tension around Iran briefly lifted crude prices midweek. WTI and Brent rebounded nearly 2% on Thursday after President Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil. The comments followed a postponed round of nuclear talks, adding to uncertainty over Middle East supply flows.
Analysts estimate that effective enforcement of these sanctions could remove up to 1.5 million bpd from global supply. However, this potential disruption is being counterbalanced by OPEC+ production flexibility and rising inventories, limiting the upside potential for prices driven by geopolitics alone.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $71.64 will change the main trend to up. The minor trend is also down. A trade through $64.87 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.
The long-term range is $52.45 to $84.90. Its 50% level is $68.67. This is major resistance. Trading on the bearish side of this key level is also a sign of weakness. Additional resistance is the 52-week moving average at $68.79.
The short-term range is $71.64 to $54.48. Its pivot at $63.06 is controlling the near-term direction. Last week, sellers drove the market to its weakside, triggering the sharp break.
The minor range is $54.48 to $64.87. Its pivot is $59.67. Crude oil is currently on the weakside of this indicator.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending May 9 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $59.67.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $59.67 will signal the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough momentum, we could see a possible near-term rally into the major pivot at $63.06.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $59.67 will indicate the presence of sellers. This will leave the market vulnerable to a plunge into the April low at $54.48.
Bearish Oil Prices Forecast as Supply-Demand Balance Breaks Down
The fundamental backdrop for crude oil remains bearish. Demand is deteriorating under the weight of China’s economic slowdown and trade war escalation, while supply resilience from OPEC+ and the U.S. continues to pressure prices. The latest EIA data, despite some bullish headlines, confirms ample domestic supply and robust refining activity.
However, the market remains prone to short-covering rallies—especially around geopolitical flashpoints such as Iranian sanctions or surprise OPEC+ maneuvers. These moves may provide temporary relief, but without a sustained improvement in demand or a decisive policy shift from major producers, they are unlikely to change the overall direction.
Traders should maintain a cautious stance. Unless WTI reclaims and holds above $59.67 this week on the back of stronger fundamentals, the oil prices forecast continues to favor further downside. With structural imbalances deepening, rallies may offer better opportunities to sell than signals of a lasting recovery.
Although the market may be vulnerable to short-covering rallies as it nears value areas, the longer-term trend will remain decisively lower as long as it remains under the 52-week moving average at $68.78.
