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12 05, 2025

The EURJPY repeats the positive closes– Forecast today – 12-5-2025

By |2025-05-12T10:49:35+03:00May 12, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

 

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

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12 05, 2025

XAU/USD hurt by US-China trade deal hopes; buyers still hopeful?

By |2025-05-12T08:49:23+03:00May 12, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price opens the week on a bearish note amid US-China trade deal optimism.
  • The US Dollar holds a bullish opening gap amid a generalized risk-on market profile.
  • Gold price closed Friday above 21-day SMA, then at $3,307, where next?

Gold price is licking its wounds after witnessing a steep sell-off in the opening trades, sending the bright metal to its lowest level in five days near the $3,250 level.

Gold price wilts on reduced safe-haven appeal

The latest leg down in Gold price is driven by a generalized upbeat mood as investors cheer ‘’substantial progress’ touted by the United States (US) and China following their high-stakes trade talks in Geneva over the weekend.

Increased hopes that the world’s two largest economies will finally reach a trade deal after last month’s tit-for-tat tariffs on each other almost put a halt to their foreign trade. This broader market optimism has diminished Gold’s appeal as a traditional safe haven.

However, the Gold price downside appears capped, as a US-Sino joint statement on the Geneva trade talks is eagerly anticipated for fresh trading impetus.

Additionally, Gold price continues to receive support from the ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan and Russia-Ukraine.

“The Indian military sent a “hotline message” to Pakistan on Sunday about violations of a ceasefire agreed upon this week and informed it of New Delhi’s intent to respond if it was repeated, a top Indian army officer said, while the Pakistan military’s spokesman denied any ceasefire violations,” according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he hopes for a full and temporary ceasefire with Russia to begin on Monday, May 12. However, Moscow effectively rejected the proposal and called for direct negotiations instead without preconditions.

Looking ahead, several key factors remain, including trade and geopolitical risks, which could continue to keep Gold sellers in check.

Markets also focus on US trade talks with Japan and the European Union (EU), which remain a cause for concern, especially after the European Commission announced last week that it plans to introduce countermeasures on up to EUR95 billion ($107.2 billion) of US imports, if negotiations with Washington were to fail to eliminate tariffs applied by US President Donald Trump, per Reuters.

Earlier on, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba noted that “autos, agriculture, airplane parts are all separate from security matters,” while setting out some outlines on trade negotiations.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price closed Friday above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,307, keeping buyers hopeful.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be on the verge of turning bearish as the leading indicator threatens the midline.

If the RSI holds the midline, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance at $3,313 will unfold. Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the falling trendline resistance at $3,433, where the intermittent resistance aligns.

A sustained move above that level will open the door toward the record high of $3,500. 

Conversely, a daily candlestick closing below the 21-day SMA at $3,313 will likely negate any bullish bias in the near term, opening up a fresh downtrend toward the 50-day SMA at $3,138.

Ahead of that, the May 1 low of $3,202 will be challenged.

US-China Trade War FAQs

Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.

An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.



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12 05, 2025

EUR/USD Forecast Today 12/05: Choppy Euro Trade (Video)

By |2025-05-12T08:48:14+03:00May 12, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Euro has initially fallen against the US dollar only to turn around and rally against the US dollar before running into trouble with the 1.13 level.
  • This has been one of those sessions where pretty much everybody had a chance to lose money as day traders get chopped up.

As far as a longer term move is concerned, I’d be watching the 1.12 level more than anything else because I think that’s the most important level on the chart, at least in the short term. Breaking down below that level could kick off something somewhat negative. And it looks to me like the Euro is trying to do exactly that. On the other hand, though, if we do break above the 1.13 level, we could then test on 1.14 level followed by the 1.15 level.

Topping Pattern Here?

All things being equal, this is a market that when you look at longer term charts, you can see what I see and that is a potential topping pattern. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the market needs to fall significantly. It just means that a pullback is probably more likely than not. We’ll have to wait and see how things play out, but if there is some type of progress made over the weekend with the Chinese, the US dollar probably gets inflows, we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.

Nonetheless, this is a market that had been overdone, so this pullback made a certain amount of sense. Now, I’ll be watching the 1.12 level to see if that pullback becomes something a little bigger. On the other hand, if we do break above that 1.13 level, then I think we will just continue the same choppy sideways noisy consolidation while we wait to see if there’s any reason whatsoever to push the Euro above the 1.15 level.

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12 05, 2025

XAU/USD tumbles below $3,300 on progress in US-China trade talks 

By |2025-05-12T06:48:31+03:00May 12, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price faces some selling pressure to around $3,275 in Monday’s early Asian session.
  • US and China cite progress in trade talks, undermining the Gold price. 
  • Persistent geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties might help limit the Gold’s losses.  

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,275 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Optimism in US-China trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, over the weekend has dragged the precious metal lower. 

The US and China reported “substantial progress” after two days of talks in Switzerland aimed at de-escalating a trade war. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described trade talks with US officials as “an important first step” in stabilising bilateral trade relations. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides made “substantial progress. Nonetheless, traders will keep an eye on the US-China trade talks details, which the US will share detail on Monday. 

The specific measures from the world’s two largest economies could undermine the safe-haven demand. On the the hand, trade-related uncertainties might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. “Obviously, the overall continued uncertainty in regards to tariffs remains probably the most significant underpinning behind gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Additionally, persistent geopolitical risks could lift the Gold price even as India-Pakistan military activity tapered following reports of a ceasefire. India and Pakistan have both claimed victory after a ceasefire was declared over the weekend, which brought the two nuclear-nations back from the brink of war.  

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 

 



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12 05, 2025

Pound to Dollar Forecast: 1.45 if USD Reverts to Historic Mean

By |2025-05-12T02:44:40+03:00May 12, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

May 11, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

RBC Capital Markets (RBC) expects a tentative Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) gain to 1.39 by the second quarter of 2026 as the dollar loses ground.

If the dollar reverts to historic mean levels, Westpac notes that GBP/USD could reach 1.45.

Standard Chartered, however, expects a GBP/USD retreat to at least 1.30.

GBP/USD dipped to near 1.32 on Thursday amid a dollar recovery before a recovery to just above 1.33.

The UK signed a trade deal with the US with lower tariffs on steel and car exports to the US, although the baseline 10% tariffs were maintained.

The deal increased market hopes that the US Administration would adopt a more conciliatory stance towards trade tariffs.

In this context, the dollar secured a further net recovery amid a reduction in the risk premium with little net Pound benefit.




Looking at the UK implications, HSBC commented; “The trade deal does mean the UK avoids the worst of some of the US’s tariff hikes, but most UK goods still face the 10% tariff introduced by President Trump on 2 April. This is much more than the average tariff of 2.2% previously.”

Standard Chartered commented; “market optimism is likely to be short-lived since the UK parliament needs to approve and finalise the trade deal.”

There will be an important focus on China with some dialogue due over the weekend, but a lot of work to be done to make any progress.

MUFG commented; “A reduction for China even to 60% and others at a rate in between that and the 10% floor for all other countries is still more like worst case scenarios prior to 2nd April.”

It added; “Trump’s words yesterday may have indicated we are moving to a better place for global and US growth but his words also suggested trade uncertainty would remain high. That means, in our view, that there will be limits to this US dollar recovery with damage to the US economy likely to become more evident in US economic data.”

According to RBC Capital Markets the dollar will remain vulnerable; “Lingering trade uncertainty leaves the economic outlook still unknown, but it is clear asset markets price US assets with higher risk premia, higher volatility and higher uncertainty. So long as that stigma remains, we think USD selling through FX hedging or asset reallocation will remain the overall trend.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50%, in line with consensus forecasts. According to Chair Powell, the impact of tariffs will be greater than expected and there is likely to be upward pressure on both inflation and unemployment.




Higher unemployment would increase pressure for a cut in rates, but higher inflation would act in the opposite direction.

Given these potential tensions, Powell reiterated that the bank needed to be patient and wait for the data to signal the appropriate policy.

Markets cut the potential for a June rate cut to around 20% from near 60% previously.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% which was in line with strong market expectations.

There was a 3-way vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a larger 50 basis-point cut while Mann and chief economist Pill voted against cutting rates.

The bank maintained its guidance that interest rates should be careful and cautious given persistent inflation pressures.

HSBC is not backing another rate cut at the June meeting; “If all of the information is pointing in the same (dovish) direction, then it’s possible that the BoE will seek to speed up the pace of easing. But base case has to be for the next cut to come in August.”

Standard Chartered is more bearish; “we expect the Bank of England to cut rates more than other Developed Market central banks in the coming months as UK growth and inflation weaken due to global trade uncertainty.”

Westpac expects that GBP/USD will settled around 1.32 in June and rally to 1.36 by late 2026.

The bank added; “It is worth emphasising that there is clear upside risk to these forecasts if investors recoil from the US because of open-ended political and/or fiscal uncertainty. For Sterling, a full reset back to the 20-year average for DXY would equate to around 1.45.”

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11 05, 2025

Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.17 by 2026, 1.24 by 2027 say RBC

By |2025-05-11T22:42:34+03:00May 11, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

May 11, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

RBC Capital Markets (RBC) forecasts that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) will strengthen to 1.17 at the end of this year with a further gain to 1.24 at the end of next year.

EUR/USD dipped to test 1.12 late in the week before a recovery to around 1.1265.

ING noted the importance of 1.12; “a break lower would signal a marked shift in sentiment on the pair and potentially pave the way for larger corrections, with 1.100 being the next big support.”

RBC sees three potential Euro supportive factors. An end to US exceptionalism would underpin the Euro, especially once the Fed does lower rates.

It also sees scope for increased capital flows to the Euro area with a Euro-Zone fiscal stimulus also supportive.

RBC commented; “We have revised up our end-2026 target for EUR/USD in line with a reassessment for allocation to US vs EZ assets.”

It added; “It is very hard calling the timing but we suspect we won’t see EUR/USD trade past 1.20 until the Fed is really able to narrow the s/t rate gap in 2026.”




The US-UK trade deal sparked optimism of a more conciliatory stance by the US Administration which underpinned the dollar.

UBS expects limited benefit; “We continue to view positive trade headlines as supportive for the USD. However, as we expect any dollar strength to be short-lived and anticipate the currency to weaken over the remainder of the year, we favor selling the USD during rallies—specifically below EURUSD 1.12.”

According to ING; “This is still a far cry from the “pragmatic” version of Trump that markets were pricing in as the baseline on Inauguration Day, but it’s enough to prevent growth and debt-related bearish bets on the dollar from mounting.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50% at the latest policy meeting, in line with consensus forecasts. According to Chair Powell, the impact of tariffs will be greater than expected and there is likely to be upward pressure on both inflation and unemployment.

Higher unemployment would increase pressure for a cut in rates, but elevated inflation would act in the opposite direction.

Given these potential tensions, Powell reiterated that the bank needed to be patient and wait for the data to signal the appropriate policy.

Markets cut the potential for a June rate cut to around 20% from near 60% previously.




ING commented; “This week, the Fed sounded anything but dovish. Still, there’s a risk that Chair Jerome Powell’s current stance is overly cautious given high uncertainty on tariffs – perhaps to reaffirm the Fed’s independence in the face of Trump’s easing calls.”

According to Danske Bank; “we still think risks are skewed towards downside surprises as front-loaded demand fades and goods supply shortages become increasingly common – especially if reaching an agreement on reducing China-tariffs takes longer than expected.”

It added; “We expect to see majority of the tariff-driven growth slowdown over the course of H2. So even if the Fed opts to remain on hold also in June, we remain confident in our call for three cuts in total for the rest of 2025.”

Westpac expects yields will remain dollar supportive; “We see the next Fed rate cut in September, meaning US rates will stay high compared to peers, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE), which have room to ease.”

Investment banks continued to debate the underlying dollar outlook.

According to Credit Agricole; “We doubt that the role of the USD as the world’s main reserve currency can be challenged any time soon given the lack of credible alternatives.”

It added; “Moreover, even if we were to see the emergences of global trade blocs using their own reserve currencies, the outcome could still favour the USD over the likes of the EUR.”

ING noted underlying uncertainty; “There are reasonable doubts about markets’ readiness to rebuild strategic dollar positions just yet, and time might be needed to reinstall market confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven asset.”

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11 05, 2025

Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: 1.182 Today, 1.2 by 2026

By |2025-05-11T20:41:14+03:00May 11, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

May 11, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

Foreign exchange analysts at Credit Agricole consider the Pound Sterling to be still undervalued and expect the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) to gain to 1.2050 at the end of this year.

RBC Capital Markets (RBC), however, forecasts that the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will decline to 1.1630 at the end of this year with a further slide to 1.11 at the end of next year amid net capital inflows into the Euro area.

GBP/EUR secured a net gain to 5-week highs at 1.1820 during the week before settling around 1.18 amid positive UK trade developments and a relatively hawkish Bank of England (BoE) policy decision.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% which was in line with strong market expectations.

There was a 3-way vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a larger 50 basis-point cut while Mann and chief economist Pill voted against cutting rates.

The bank maintained its guidance that interest rates should be careful and cautious given persistent inflation pressures.

According to Rabobank; “Our baseline scenario remains unchanged since last summer: the MPC cuts rates quarterly, focusing on meetings with an MPR, and aims to close out 2025 with a policy rate of 3.75%.”




It added; “That said, we do agree with the market’s view prior to today’s meeting that the risk of a more aggressive pace has risen. But for that to materialize, April’s CPI print (out on May 21) must soothe rather than reignite fears of inflation’s persistence.”

Danske Bank noted positive yield spreads, but added; “More broadly, while we see domestic factors as GBP positives, we think the global investment environment will be in the driver’s seat for EUR/GBP in the coming months. An investment environment characterised by elevated uncertainty, widening credit spreads and a positive correlation to a USD negative environment, in our view, favours a weaker GBP.”

The UK also reached a trade deal with the US with a reduction in tariffs on steel to zero while the tariff on cars will be cut to 10%.

The overall baseline tariff will, however, remain at 10%.

In return, the US will gain improved access to the UK market, especially in agriculture.

The UK and EU will hold a summit on May 19th.

ING commented; “The deal had already been largely priced in, and the implications for the UK economy are not significant. That said, the UK has now signed two trade deals in quick succession (with India and the US), and that is keeping markets hopeful on trade talks with the EU – which would have much more meaningful implications for the UK, and can lend a hand to troubled British finances.”




Credit Agricole noted some positives; “It should be also mentioned that the BoE outlook for the economy could improve from here, given that the MPC has not pencilled in the impact from the trade deal between the US and UK.”

The bank still sees scope for Pound gains; “markets will focus on BoE speeches as they gauge the magnitude of the bank’s easing bias in the wake of the May policy meeting. Absent any significant data disappointments or dovish surprises, the still undervalued GBP could outperform the EUR.”

RBC is still concerned over UK fundamentals; “its net international investment position is negative not positive. That means while EUR and JPY benefit from a Fed cutting cycle, GBP should lag, leading EUR/GBP higher in 2026.”

The bank added; “The 2022 Truss episode has done lasting damage in that even under pretty extreme global conditions, gilt investors, and by extension the UK govt, see limited room for the govt to offer much fiscal support.”

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11 05, 2025

Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: CPI and Powell Speech Set Stage for Next Major Move

By |2025-05-11T18:42:02+03:00May 11, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The nearest support is a pair of 50% levels at $3166.46 and $3018.52. The major support is the 52-week moving average at $2692.05.

There is nothing really exciting about this chart pattern. Investors essentially have two choices, buy strength or buy a dip. If bullish news drives the price action then investors are likely to chase it higher.  Economic data, Fed uncertainty and a potential trade war with China are events that could cap gains and lead to a retreat into a value area like $3166.46 to $3018.52.

Fed Steady, But Policy Uncertainty Lifts Bullion

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments left the door open for future easing. Powell flagged ongoing concerns about elevated inflation and softening labor market indicators, reinforcing the perception that the Fed lacks a clear policy path forward. Markets are now pricing in up to 75 basis points of rate cuts before year-end, with expectations concentrated around the September meeting.

That uncertainty—paired with the Fed’s refusal to commit to a timeline—reinvigorated gold’s appeal as a hedge against monetary policy indecision. Bond yields remained range-bound, offering no resistance to gold’s advance.

Dollar Eases, Boosting Foreign Demand for Gold

The U.S. dollar slipped 0.3% during key sessions last week, briefly losing ground to major currencies including the yen and euro. This helped gold become cheaper for foreign buyers and supported fresh buying from Asia, particularly from China following the end of its national holiday. Although the dollar finished the week marginally higher overall, the midweek softness provided enough of a tailwind to lift bullion from recent lows.

Trade Tensions Persist, But Tariff Tone Softens

Gold found additional support from ongoing trade uncertainty. President Trump’s comments on tariffs kept traders on edge, though notably, his proposal of an 80% tariff on Chinese imports marked a reduction from the 145% figure previously floated. The moderation helped ease fears of a sharp escalation, especially as U.S. and Chinese officials prepared to meet in Switzerland over the weekend for de-escalation talks. These developments reduced the risk of a fresh trade shock, but still preserved gold’s value as a geopolitical hedge.



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11 05, 2025

Copper price declined below the support– Forecast today – 9-5-2025

By |2025-05-11T04:33:03+03:00May 11, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The (GBPUSD) price declined in its recent intraday trading, breaking the critical support level at 0.3260, which represents a neckline for clear negative formation on the short-term basis – the triple top pattern, which reverses the previous bullish trend. This break is considered as a strong technical signal for turning the price behavior, supporting the continuation of the dominant bearish correctional wave on the price.

 

This negative performance comes amid the continuation of the negative pressures, with the stability of the price below EMA50, besides the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), despite its stability below 0.3260, to target the support at 1.3160.

 

 

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10 05, 2025

XAU/USD down but not out; all eyes on US-China trade talks

By |2025-05-10T20:29:25+03:00May 10, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price hits fresh weekly lows below $3,300 early Friday.
  • The US Dollar firms up on US-UK trade deal, profit-taking ahead of US-China trade talks.
  • Gold price needs a daily close below 21-day SMA at $3,307 to negate near-term bullish bias.

Gold price is flirting with weekly lows below $3,300 early Friday as the US Dollar (USD) stands tall on renewed optimism on the US trade deals front.

Gold price keenly awaits US-China trade talks

The US Dollar stands tall against its major currency rivals as worries over a potential US economic downturn ease following the announcement of a “breakthrough deal” by US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday.

The US-UK trade deal raised hopes that US trade agreements with other countries are in the offing, especially as the US and China begin their first high-level trade talks in Switzerland on Saturday.

 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chief Trade Negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s Vice Premier, He Lifeng, over the weekend.

The revival of the King Dollar has exerted downward pressure on the Gold price, but it remains to be seen if sellers can retain control in the day ahead. Markets may likely take profits off the table on their USD and Gold positions as the looming US-China trade risks approach.

Investors could also see bargain hunting in the bright metal as geopolitical risks globally remain elevated. FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani said, “Russia and Ukraine both reported attacks on their forces on the first day of a three-day unilateral ceasefire called by Russian President Vladimir Putin,”

“Furthermore, Israel’s escalation with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and fears of a broader military conflict along the India-Pakistan border keep geopolitical risks in play,” Haresh added.

Adding to this, a hit to the Chinese trade balance in April due to the probable impact of US tariffs could also bode well for the traditional safe haven. Meanwhile, China’s expansion to its Gld reserves for the sixth straight month also serves in the interest of Gold buyers.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price fell sharply after facing rejection once again above the $3,400 barrier. In doing so, Gold price has breached the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,306.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stalled its descent while defending the midline, suggesting that a rebound could be in the offing.

Gold price needs to recapture the $3,400 mark, above which buyers must establish a firm foothold above the two-week high of $3,440. The next topside target is at the record high of $3,500. 

On the downside, Gold sellers yearn for a daily closing below the 21-day SMA at $3,306, which could negate any bullish potential in the near term, opening up a fresh downtrend toward the 50-day SMA at $3,129.

Ahead of that, the static support at $3,260 and the May 2 low of $3,223 will be challenged.

US-China Trade War FAQs

Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.

An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.



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