At the same time, Treasury yields slipped, with the 2-year at 3.60% and the 10-year at 4.14%, signaling a more cautious bond market.
Fed Signals Reinforce Reduced Easing Expectations
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 46% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from 67% a week earlier. This adjustment follows a series of measured comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said policy should continue to “lean against demand growth,” describing current rates as “modestly restrictive.” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem added that rates are now closer to neutral, cautioning that there is limited room to ease without creating broader risks.
These remarks have tempered expectations for rapid policy shifts and kept investors hesitant to price in earlier cuts.
Market Awaits Delayed US Economic Releases
Attention is now turning to upcoming US data releases delayed by the recent government shutdown. The September Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on November 20, but gaps remain for several October indicators.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data may not be recoverable, leaving markets waiting for clearer signals on the Fed’s next steps.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in positive territory near $51.00 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The white metal edges higher amid uncertainty following the end of the US government’s shutdown. Federal Reserve officials are set to speak later on Monday, including John Williams, Philip Jefferson, Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller.
Markets are bracing for a flood of delayed economic reports that could signal a slowing US economy. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will take center stage later on Thursday. This report could offer clarity to the Fed rate outlook in December. Any signs of weakness in the US labor market could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price.
“I think the risk is definitely skewed to a weaker payrolls print, and that would just reignite market expectations about a December FOMC rate cut and send the U.S. dollar down,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).
On the other hand, hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers ahead of a deluge of US economic data spooked traders and could weigh on the white metal. Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should lean against demand growth, adding that current Fed policy is “modestly restrictive,” which he believes is appropriate.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 40% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in the Fed’s December meeting, down from over 60% earlier this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) climbed to 1.1620 last week after the US currency softened amid renewed uncertainty over the timing and accuracy of economic data following the end of the government shutdown.
Markets now face a critical “data catch-up” phase that could determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again in December.
EUR/USD Forecasts: Data catch-up
ING forecasts that the Euro to Dollar rate will strengthen gradually to 1.22 by the end of 2026.
EUR/USD secured a net gain to 1.1620 during the week as the dollar lost ground.
The US Congress voted to end the government shutdown this week, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty over the underlying situation.
Berenberg commented; “With the end of the government shutdown, transparency is slowly returning, even though many inflation and labour market figures are still based on estimates.”
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It added; “The key question for the markets now is: When will official economic data be published again?”
A key factor will be the impact on Federal Reserve policy. There are clear divisions within the committee and confidence in another Fed cut in December has faded with traders now pricing in close to a 50% chance that there will be no further move.
Scotiabank commented; “We expect that the Federal Reserve will largely look through these price pressures, arguing that they are more likely to be one-off shocks related to tariffs rather than indicative of broader price pressures.
It added; “There is also clearly immense political pressure on the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in pursuing rate cuts.”
The bank expects that the Fed Funds rate will be cut to 3.0% next year.
It also notes a high degree of uncertainty over trade and fiscal policies which will inevitably increase the potential risks to forecasts.
ING also expects rates will be cut to near 3.00% and expects that this will encourage increased hedging ratios with global funds finding is less expensive to take protection against a weaker dollar.
It added; “In addition, there remains sufficient uncertainty around Fed policy to demand a risk premium in the dollar. Changes on the Fed board early next year and potential political pressure on the central bank ahead of the November midterms warn that US dollar real rates drift towards neutral and weigh on the dollar.”
ING noted other potential risks; “Additionally, a resurgence of concerns around US debt sustainability and the build-up of political risk premium ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections are both tangible risks.”
Euro-Zone developments will also be important. According to ING; “It may not feel like it today, but we’re looking for the eurozone economy to accelerate through 2026. The region has the savings to be put to work, and we are looking for German fiscal stimulus to register in 2026.”
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Natural gas prices formed temporary corrective trading on Friday, keeping their positive stability above the extra support at $4.200, to confirm the previously suggested bullish scenario.
The price might be forced to provide more mixed trading, to keep waiting for extra bullish momentum, to ease the mission of pressing on %38.2 Fibonacci level at $4.770 and surpassing it will lead the price to record extra gains by its rally towards $4.910 and $5.150.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.330 and $4.700
The British pound slid sharply on Friday as 1.32 capped gains, with weakening technicals and a looming death cross reinforcing a bearish bias.
Expectations for a potential BOE rate cut further pressure GBP while short-term rallies continue to attract sellers.
The British pound has fallen quite a bit during the trading session against the US dollar on Friday, as the 1.32 level has offered a bit of a barrier. Ultimately, this is a market that I think you have to look at through the prism of being in a downtrend now that we are below 1.32, which means if we can break above the 1.32 level, then that would actually be a very strong sign.
Potential “Death Cross”
Nonetheless, the 50-day EMA breaking down the way it is and looking to cross below the 200-day EMA suggests that perhaps we might get the so-called death cross. And that, of course, is a very negative turn of events as the death cross will attract a lot of longer-term traders. The US dollar itself has been relatively strong. And I think that probably continues to be the case.
But the British pound is a little bit different situation in the sense that, despite the fact that the Bank of England did not cut rates last time, the reality is that the vote count was very close. So, with this, I think you have a situation where traders are keeping an eye on the idea of lower rates coming out of London. And that will have a major influence on what we see here.
I fade short term rallies that show the first signs of exhaustion. I like the US dollar in general right now, but more importantly, don’t necessarily like the British pound. If we were to break above the 1.32 level and then sustain that for a day or two, then you can make an argument for getting long. But until then, I’m more of a downside player at this point.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price returned to form weak sideways trading due to the contradiction between the main indicators, by stochastic reach below 50 level, which forces it to settle below $5.2000, announcing its readiness to activate the bearish corrective trend again.
Facing negative pressure in the current period might force it to attack the extra support near $4.7500 and surpassing it might extend the losses towards $4.6300 reaching the moving average 55 at $4.4600.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7500 and $5.1200
EUR/USD moves sideways slightly above 1.1600 in the European morning on Monday after posting marginal losses on Friday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum. In the absence of high-impact data releases, comments from central bank policymakers could drive the pair’s action.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.07%
-0.01%
0.12%
-0.05%
0.00%
-0.15%
-0.06%
EUR
-0.07%
-0.09%
0.05%
-0.11%
-0.06%
-0.22%
-0.13%
GBP
0.01%
0.09%
0.12%
-0.03%
0.01%
-0.14%
-0.05%
JPY
-0.12%
-0.05%
-0.12%
-0.17%
-0.12%
-0.28%
-0.19%
CAD
0.05%
0.11%
0.03%
0.17%
0.05%
-0.11%
-0.02%
AUD
-0.01%
0.06%
-0.01%
0.12%
-0.05%
-0.16%
-0.05%
NZD
0.15%
0.22%
0.14%
0.28%
0.11%
0.16%
0.09%
CHF
0.06%
0.13%
0.05%
0.19%
0.02%
0.05%
-0.09%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Hawkish remarks from Fed officials supported the US Dollar (USD) heading into the weekend and caused EUR/USD to edge lower.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid argued that further rate cuts wouldn’t “patch job market cracks,” instead they could do damage to inflation. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that the US economy is resilient and added they need to proceed with caution.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 56% chance that the Fed will hold the policy rate unchanged at the last meeting of the year, up from about 37% a week earlier.
In case Fed policymakers cling to a cautious tone on further policy-easing, the USD could hold its ground and continue to limit EUR/USD upside.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for September on Thursday.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs, with the short-term slopes turning higher while the 200-period SMA still declines. Price holds above all these averages, keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 54, neutral with a slight positive tilt.
Measured from the 1.1885 high to the 1.1470 low, the 38.2% retracement at 1.1628 aligns as the initial resistance level. A sustained break above it could open the path to the 50% retracement at 1.1678. The 200-period SMA at 1.1610 offers nearby dynamic support. A drop below this level would undermine the bullish tone and expose the horizontal support at 1.1551.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last trading on the intraday levels, amid the continuation of negative dynamic pressure that is represented by its trading below EMA50, reinforcing the stability and the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis, especially with its trading alongside minor trendline, besides the emergence of the negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after the stability of the key support at $3,060, this support represents potential target in our previous reports, which helped it to achieve these cautious gains.
The GBPJPY pair repeatedly provided mixed trading on Friday, affected by the stability of the extra barrier at 203.95, besides stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appeared in the above image.
Reminding you that the stability of the trading repeatedly above 201.70 support will keep reinforcing the dominance of the bullish scenario, therefore, we will keep preferring the bullish momentum which allows it to surpass the current barrier and begin forming bullish waves, to target 204.65 level reaching the next target at 205.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 202.80 and 204.65
The British Pound (GBP) trades on the back foot against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday after the Pound weakened broadly following a Financial Times report that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise income-tax rates ahead of the November 26 budget.
At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 203.00, down nearly 0.30%, after rebounding from an intraday low of 202.34.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart continues to show an overall uptrend, with prices holding comfortably above both short-term and long-term moving averages.
On the downside, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 202.49 is acting as immediate support. A deeper pullback would expose the 50-day SMA near 201.43, followed by a strong confluence zone around the 100-day SMA at 199.97 and the psychological 200.00 level, which also aligns with the horizontal floor of the previous consolidation phase.
Holding above this region keeps the broader bias constructive, while a decisive break below 200.00 could hand near-term control to sellers and open the door for a deeper retracement toward 199.00 and 198.50.
On the upside, the 204.00 area, near this week’s highs, marks immediate resistance. A decisive break above that threshold would likely propel GBP/JPY toward fresh year-to-date highs above 205.33.
Momentum indicators reflect a pause in trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral around 54, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains subdued, suggesting a brief consolidation phase may unfold before the next directional move.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
